主题：【讨论】下任总经理的施政纲领 -- wqnsihs
如果党内还有人记得太祖的阶级分析法，那么这是个生死攸关的问题。
大资产阶级？肯定不是他们，因为一个弱政府更符合他们的利益，国家管制越弱，他们就有更多机会占据国计民生的关键行业和企业，牟取更高的利润。政治越开放，选战越激烈，他们就更容易背后操纵政治，将如今“资本依附政治”的格局改变为一些皿煮国家那样的“政治依附资本”。一个权威政治体系并不符合他们的最高利益。我党如今对他们采取赎买政策，用利益把他们安顿下来，“调整收入分配”的刀子暂时还扎不到他们身上。
地方小资产阶级？他们面子上对地方官员曲意逢迎，攀附巴结，背后骂这群狼怎么才能喂饱。他们对党有感情吗？何况现在进行时的“调整收入分配”，接下来第一刀就要砍向他们。
中高级雇佣劳动者即所谓白领以及知识分子？本来他们能够继续做“白”领的条件与安定的社会环境相关性最高，但这些年高投资/高通胀/低消费的经济政策，他们是最大的受害者。房价高涨，存款被货币扩张所侵蚀。现行税费体系下昂贵的高端消费品使他们的绝对生活水平无法向欧美同行看齐。所以这个阶层现在骂娘骂的厉害。
城市下层劳动者包括农民工？这些年他们的绝对生活水平在上升，但受中国传统“不患寡而患不均”的心态支配，在温饱线上徘徊的他们，对日益扩大的社会贫富差距不会有太多好感吧。
真正仍在从事农业劳动的农民阶层，数量并不大，对社会政治问题不热心者居多。本届政府在路线调整上最鲜明的一点就是农村政策，因此他们的生活水平改善较多，观点相对正面。但普遍对农村地方官员的胡作非为及其反感。
所以我党现在的阶级基础到底是什么？如果说只剩下体制内的官僚、国企和事业单位人员才对党忠心耿耿，这是非常危险的。
在经济上升期，每年高增长，搞得不好今年赚10万明年赚12万，搞的好的今年50万明年100万，那么大家都高高兴兴，当然是社会和谐，人民安居乐业。但如果全球进入一个萧条期，各种被掩盖的社会矛盾就有可能表面化。这就容易理解为什么年年“保八”，不是经济问题而是政治问题。
依靠谁、争取谁、反对谁的问题，是关键问题。
其实咱们的经济是发展了的，贵党是有功劳的。但是现在几万亿炒房（我不负责任乱猜的），投机者乐，努力干活攒钱的越干活越看不到买得起房的希望，这个太打伤人积极性了。
就算我认识的央企的高级管理人员（ceo，cfo，coo等等），10多年来基本上是星期天休息不肯定，星期六肯定不休息，在办公室彻夜不眠经常的事情，
--I am talking about LOW-level labor, not senior management. DO NOT CHANGE THE SUBJECT.Their pay is much higher and they aspire for political powers, thus they should feel free to work as long as you like. You should not expect/require LOW-level workers to work 24/7 EVERY DAY. They are human beings, not your disposable machines.
--Senior management in States also have much longer working hours. It is normal for some of them to work like this--that's their responsbility. I know one senior banker always meets his children in the New York airport. Nothing surprising.
就算我认识的央企的高级管理人员（ceo，cfo，coo等等），10多年来基本上是星期天休息不肯定，星期六肯定不休息--I do not meet many of them, but I can tell you that I only respect two of them I met before: the Merchant Bank CEO and the China Aluminum CEO. In my opinion, some of others are jerks: managing a firm like a military officer.
Most others work long hours with tons of meaningless office meetings, they do not work smartly. Many are politicians, not competent managers.
觉得你们没人性，是该鄙视的经济动物，应该限制你们劳动的权力
--AGAIN, I REFER TO LOW-LEVEL WORKERS, not senior managers.
--I think average Joes work to earn a living--NOT BECAUSE THEY ENJOY WORKING or WANT TO DEVOTE TO CHINA'S GREAT RISE. AND YOU SHOULD NOT COMPEL THEM TO SACRIFICE THEIR NORMAL LIFE FOR YOUR ASPIRATION.
That's true in both US and China as well as Europe. They need enough rest to recover from hard work. 5-working day is normal for family men/women. Keep in mind, child-raising is also a time-consuming investment.
--I asked friends with middle-manager level jobs(not senior management level--some of them quite enjoyed that life style) in Shanghai--ALL OF THEM COMPLAIN about unpaid overtime and related peer pressure. They do not share your aspiration--for them, an everrising China has only contributed to a house that is way non-affordable and an inflation outstripping their pay rise.
They are the majority--THEY DO NOT ENJOY UNPAID OVERTIME AS YOU DO, so please do not speak on their behalf.
你知道劳动法导致多少人失业吗？有饭吃的人指责没饭吃的人不应该干那些脏活，累活，是不是很荒唐。
--你知道劳动法导致多少人失业吗？there is short-run effect and long-run effect. When FDR first implemented Great Deal law on labor regulations, so many RICH Americans hate him.
While when a middle-class gradually came into existence later, people started to realize the long-term benefits of better labor protection.
--Under the current low labor rate in China, no serious capitalists shall have incentives for capital investment: because it is more profitable to use labor to replace machines. That's exactly what happened in J&J Shanghai in 1990s.
--Labor law in Europe helps to improve the living standards of the poor working class. What the law did is the SQUEEZE SOME profit out of the capitalists and fat pay of managers to feed those poor guys.
有饭吃的人指责没饭吃的人不应该干那些脏活，累活，是不是很荒唐。
--You are changing the subject again here. While the work can be dirty, but why there is no fire alarm in the working facility? Why there is no enough toilet system? why the capitalists(like the coal mine owners from San Xi) earned super high profit, sending their spoiled kids to US/Canada/Australia to enjoy super nice life while still refused to invest in the minimum safety facilities for those coal miners? Can you tell me how many Chinese coal miners died in the last 5 years DUE TO TOTAL CARELESSNESS OF THOSE mine owners?
Chinese elites only know to squeeze BLOODY PROFIT FROM their compatriots and continuously compete on the cheap side, then blame their compatriots for no purchasing power--if you pay the slave rate, eliminate minimum safety facilities and do not give cafe or toilet, how can you expect your compatriots to have purchasing power and live WITH DIGNITY?
我还是要用汶川地震时农民兄弟的话：美国是不是不干活就有饭吃？
--yes, some of the disadvantaged people (old pensioners, disabled workers, some unemployed people) do still have food on their table. BECAUSE GOVERNMENT USES TAXATION FOR wealth redistribution, so that some of your compatriots do not have to live like slaves. That's the progress under the Great Deal.
Mediaid is financed by tax money and it is free to disadvantaged people. Medicare is open to senior and also financed by public finance--it is called wealth redistribution.
在家里等着就有汽车开？
--Welfare payment is too low for that. Most welfare is paid through food coupon, for food purpose only.
政府发房子发老婆？
--while it provided limited public housing and subsidizes rent and has rent control regulation--therefore, rich people can not do whatever they like to some poor tenants.
发老婆？--you need to date out yourself, right? China's gov. actually managed that once through Dan Wei.
20年前，民工为能够获得血汗工厂的位置都要打破头，今天他们的后代已经不屑于进血汗工厂，这就是我们的进步。
--20 years ago, China does not have so many sweat shops. NOW, China make almost all low-end consumer products for the whole world (not just US or Europe), which means an explosion of job positions.
Not comparable.
--今天他们的后代已经不屑于进血汗工厂，这就是我们的进步。It is not progress, it is because of ONE-CHILD POLICY and a sharply shrinking young labor pool! It is also because the government purchase program boasted farmer income and sweat shop owners refused to raise pay in the last time years, THUS MAKING THE GUANGDONG SWEAT shop jobs no longer attractive.
Give me a break, those 民工 are exactly 极端个人主义 and cold-blood economic man: they weigh costs and benefits and make their move. THEY DO NOT SHARE YOUR ASPIRATION.
Chinese are lip-servicely collective people and inherently 个人主义 people. Do not listen to what they say, watch out their career choice.
我相信再过20年，他们的下一代，就可以在升级的产业链上与美国鬼子平等竞争了，那个时候美国鬼子千万不要说：你们还是回去当奴隶，办血汗工厂吧--BTW, the European post-war recovery exactly went through an industry upgrading process as well as the quick increase in living standards and labor rates. The Euro-US relation is quite harmonious in the golden 1950s-1960s.
Americans are rational animals: they fear your competitive capacity, but they also LIKE YOUR BIG CONSUMER MARKET. Ever since 1990, the main appeal of China to the west world is its enormous market potential.
But if China still compete on the cheap labor, what will happen is that China will build up big capacity in all new industries, but Chinese still live under high inflation and similarly low living standards, while bringing down the living standards of all European and American workers.
Is that the lose-lose result we want to see from this globalization comedy?
IN THE LAST 10 YEARS, CHINESE ENJOY TREMENDOUS GDP NOMINAL GROWTH, while most benefits of growth STILL GO TO A LIMITED GROUP OF POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC ELITES, while the majority of Chinese just see their living standards stagnating like in 2000.
IS THAT WHAT TODAY'S MAJORITY OF CHINESE WANT FOR TODAY AND THE FUTURE?
This is not a question for you, this is a question for other average Joes on this forum.
唱赞歌的比例很小，对所谓国内“资产阶级”感觉的特点是越是搞实业的，越是经营范围接近体制内的私下对执政党的评价越低越恶毒，虽然党把大把的钞票给了他们，但是基本上是离心离德的，只不过互相需要而已
大多数的是有地农民。而不是失地农民。讨论时应当清晰“实际运转的中国”，而不是“舆论表述的中国”？
中国农民的土地和孩子是他们的社会保障。劳动力是他们工作能力和意愿共同的租值。
我想Parishg说的是没错的，我们的劳工的确应该得到更好的劳动保护，更高的工资。但Parishg没有意识到中国的起点是多么低，以至于我们如果不走这样一条如此让人心酸的路，恐怕连血汗工厂能带来的那些回报都没有。
是时候来改变了。这几天河里关于危机的帖子很多，月色MM的贴子也引起了很多争论。我想多数人还是认同现在情势之危急，未来十年更深更广的变革对我们的重要意义的。所以Parishg请你不要怀疑大家对于时弊的痛恨。
我从两位的帖子中受益良多，斗胆和稀泥一次，请别见怪。
俺觉得您心里还是放不下几块东西。一个，作为文革后的第一批大学生，您的思想基础有很大一部分是76年前主流的共产主义或者马克思主义的，即便您作为很优秀的经济管理者，却还是天生对公平而不是效率有偏好，虽然实际上您的行为是偏向效率的，但您的思想却不是。另一个，同样作为这批大学生，您的另一个思想基础是建立在文革后的舆论基础上的，或者说，您的史观有很大一部分是建立在我们国家这30年的政治需要上的，这个不能展开了，太危险。
胡乱写的，您别见怪。
另外，对于抗战这个事，俺觉得既要从中国人的立场上研究也要从非中国人的立场上研究。作为中国人，当然屁股是我们国家上的了。但是如果放下这种感情，俺只能说，抗战，尤其是国军抗战，作为一个整体是屈辱的。50万的鬼子兵，就打得我们一败涂地，差点亡国。“迫使日军进攻路线由东北向南的南北路线改为沿长江而上的东西路线”只是一个事后的安慰，因为历史上鬼子虽然确实这么打，但绝不是因为这么打而让鬼子没有灭亡中国。鬼子对中国的作战，投入的兵力太少了。日本虽小，当年也有一亿人口，工业能力虽远不如美苏，真动员起来1939年向中国战场投入100万人以上的日军毫无问题（日军装备远逊于美苏，只是一战加强水平，主要依靠步兵），但它在中国战场只投入了50万。
到失去生命的勇气（日本这么多大企业ceo自杀就是例子）。有的岗位需要你有激情，例如ceo，不然就是缺乏道德的，因为你的悲观和消极可能会让成百上千，甚至上万的人失业，断掉养家糊口的希望，把成千上万的家庭推向深渊。所以做企业领导并不容易，承担太多社会责任。要从个人舒服来讲，最好是做顾问而不是ceo，在一线实在太残酷。所以我一直很佩服并尊敬在一线作战的人，他们非常不容易，有时是强颜欢笑，谁知道他们心中的痛楚。
“全球化”语境下的国际竞争，对国际资本来说是竞优，可以将投资转向具有“比较优势”的地区，提高利润率。而对于劳工阶层来说就是竞次，看哪个政府能榨出更多本国人民的利益，来供国际资本吸食。开发区白给的土地、税收减免、保证没有工会组织和工人运动，这就是我们给开出的对价。国际投资的蜂拥而至，带来了技术、市场和资本，也就带来了繁荣。在一个后发国家工业化的起步阶段，这是国际资本和本国劳工的一个win/win，或者说血汗工厂是不得不(暂时)承受的代价。但问题在于，这种政府主导、招商引资、公共投资拉动、压抑劳工权益，高投资率低消费率的模式，在我国工业产值已经接近全球第一的时候，即将到达极点，这个极点，就是资本论里说的消费和生产能力的不匹配，你不可能让美国人民继续向他的第一大债主举债去消费，这样继续下去就要变成lose/lose——中国大众的消费能力无法变得足够强大，而西方产业空心化(由于新兴市场的竞争)，累积的经常项目逆差和财政赤字，居民和公共负债过高，消费能力下降。结果就是资本论里描述的“生产相对过剩”的资本主义经济危机，我们现在的表述，叫做全球产能过剩(参见林毅夫的文章)。可我们对这种模式现在像吸鸦片上了瘾，下层官僚从中受益，政治家们都是局内人，害怕动荡的后果，没有勇气去改变。福特给工人5美元工资，让工人们买得起福特的汽车，这个产业才能做大。推而广之也是如此。
话说回来，1930年代的全球经济危机，又何尝不是工业产能从老欧洲向美洲、日本、苏联这些新兴市场转移所导致的呢？
本帖一共被 3 帖 引用 (帖内工具实现)
和威望不足，下不去。我想作为政治家，不会意识不到自己的政权基础在动摇，但是冰冻三尺非一日之寒，现在已经无心恋战，只等以后再看。不过这种工作搞得不好就是全国混乱，文革第二再现江湖并非不可能。
资本论和中国社会各阶层分析，就能读懂当年政治经济学和中国革命史课堂上读不懂的东西。下面这个帖子就是一例。
另外，你这个“贵党”的说法，怎么让俺浑身不舒服啊，呵呵 
基础已经不牢固然正确，
但真要说去革命，又能依靠哪个阶级呢？
当前的阶级矛盾比之明末、清末、1945年，恐怕还算是有口饭吃，
要最基层的民众搞革命怕是不易
就算是叶利钦、戈尔巴乔夫式的“人才”，现在也看不到吧？
当然帝国主义忘我之心不死，大资产阶级企图固化自身即得利益与之联系发动政变的可能也存在，但可能性当前还是非常小
光看到问题，不看到成绩也不对呀