主题：【讨论】下任总经理的施政纲领 -- wqnsihs
但是可能你适合在下面建鸡窝，或下蛋。各尽所能，没有人比谁更强。如果所有鸡都站在房顶上瞭望，那他们吃什么，还不被饿死了。
怪不得这么多人哈美！原因出在这啊！呵呵
缺公平多点？抑或两者都缺？
杀富济贫，我倒觉得不存在，倒是目前制度安排和现实中太多的杀贫济富（不仅仅指国内）。个人的无力感很强烈，既然改变不了只好适应这种状态，为了自己不做被人使用的电池只好可着劲的使用越来越多的电池，精神上的犬儒避世成了我的真实状态，这个世界于我个人来说无法根本改变，也许这个一直以来存在的现实就是历史的终结吧
芒总进入网络虚拟世界是因为孤独，我则是对这个现实世界的驱动规则的失望，您进入虚拟世界能解决您的问题，而我的问题在虚拟世界也无法解决，精神上我是属于一种精神认同，而实践上却走上了精神面的对立面，而且越走越远，回不去了。。。 。。。
难度在于三十年前开始的改革潜力已经挖尽，经济政治外交国防上的难题越来越多，困难程度越来越深，除既得利益者外的各阶层对现状越来越不满意。
而威权的控制力和威望都在持续衰减中，体制既不能改变、也不可长久持续，仅仅起应付和救火队作用。因此也是非常危险的十年。
诸侯经济条件下的资源配置大锅饭，例如本来比较优势是贵州的矿产放到沿海加工，效率最高。但是不是，贵州政府要求沿海企业到贵州建厂，这个成本可就不是一般高了（最近海西想与台湾化肥建企业，想从贵州进原料，贵州不同意），但是各省地位平等，国家发改委都没办法协调。
在微观层面，我们目前贫富悬殊，制度性的不公平已经很明显，例如个人所得税，例如遗产税，都有大问题。但是一般人的简单想法就是杀富济贫，想法瓜分其财产（贵州干过这种事情，导致一批企业家跑到珠海、深圳）贫富过度悬殊的社会是不稳定的社会，是要付出动乱代价的。
另外一个大问题是投机心理和浮躁，导致整个社会失去踏实做事情的环境和动力，把资源和精力浪费在不产生任何真实收益的投机事业上，而且导致垄断力量合法剥夺弱势群体的财富（理由很阳光：某某有风险，切莫轻易介入），实际上是一种绝对不公平的官办赌场（股市、楼市、期货无不如此），让浮躁的人走入不归路。这种人实际就像东汉晚期豪强土地兼并下的失地农民，只能或者依附豪强，卖身为奴；或者铤而走险，这种人多了，社会就不稳定了。
过得去国家实力上个大台阶，过不去，或者拉美化，贫富进一步两极分化，贪腐制度化；或者陷入长期动乱，民不聊生。
对老百姓带来的损害你也去调查一下。上有政策，下有对策。好多事情本来不该在西西河讨论的，点到为止吧，不要把西西河给弄关闭了。
But America is different from Rome
1.First, Rome corrupted itself into a dictatorship with absolute power in the hand of Czars. Therefore, the good or bad decisions of one emperor can easily determine the fate.
USA will not convert from a republic into a kingdom because of the constraint of the constitution and its people. Never forget 40m Americans have guns in their hands and there is a long history of self-rule ever since colonial time.
2.Rome empire was crushed by constant attacks of various barbarians such as Huns,Vandals, Goths... Those barbarians wanted easy and comfortable life of Romans, but lacked skill in building up a city life, so the only option was to plunder Romans. Western Empire was defeated by nomads/horsemen and its own corruption.
In sum, geopolitically bad location and backward military technologies are the reasons.
Today's America is isolated by two oceans. Before any barbarians can attack America, they must first swim across two oceans or smuggle through customs. Not easy job at all.
Canada is actually part of America, languagely or culturally (Quebec as the exception, but do not expect them to side with Asians. Those are arrogant Frenchmen), therefore, the Northern border is secured.
Mexico is the only source of trouble, but the southern wall is building up and America can always use extreme tactics to completely shut off the southern border--and they are not shy of resorting those tactics.
The worst situation is that American goes back to its old status before WWI. With its human capital, capitalism system, meritcracy, rich natural resources (still a lot in US, esp., when you combine Canada), US is still a geopolitical power.
没有千年不瓦解的帝国--what America lost is only the military control outside its border, it is hard to change its down republic system. BTW, I have to emphasize several times here: US appears to be a democracy, but it is a republic system with the mask of democracy. I am not so naive as to believe that it is Greek-style popular democracy--it is also not the objective of those founding fathers.
没有千年不瓦解的帝国--agree, but will not be in your lifetime, as well as in my lifetime. My grandson will be lucky to see it in his lifetime.
当然瓦解后再凤凰涅槃的可能目前只能指望中国。--hehe, before that, one famous French scholar argued even in 2004 that "we are already in the post-(US)empire era". German finance minister can not restrain his pride and has declared in 2007 that USD-era was over. Europeans were so confident in 2006-2007 as if they will reclaim the global leadership again, despite ALL THE INSTITUTIONAL WEAKNESS in the whole EU political infrastructure.
hehe, now we will see whether it is Euro or USD that is going to lose global credibility first. A small Greece has completely embarrass the whole EU elites.
It is EASY TO SEE OTHER PEOPLE'S WEAKNESS, BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO SEE ONE'S OWN weakness, because human beings suffer from overoptimism when it comes to themselves.
BTW, there have been several serious American publications on the rise and fall of empires. The American elites have busily studied the history of the British empires, German lessons and the ancient Rome. Every elite club member I talked to has studied Niall Ferguson's books.
As I said before, do not be blindly optimistic and do not underestimate your counterparties.
只是时间问题和瓦解的方法问题。而且从以往经验来看，瓦解一定是从内部开始。中国西汉的瓦解表面上出一个王莽这种野心家，实际是社会有普遍的期望改革制度，避免兼并和贫富差距过大；--yes, fully agree. Roosevelt rescued American through Great Deal. What I worry most is the everrising power of the financial elites. Those people have weak loyalty to America and they can be the Trojan horses of America.
In the long run, America must reverse its current trend of shrinking middle class and polarization between the super rich financial elites and the poor underclass.
To solve this problem, one has to cut off free global trade... therefore, Obama's tactic is not completely wrong (bad against exporters, but good for underclass).
美国现在就有许多不安定因素，虽然其制度有一定的自我修复能力，但是并不足够。当年罗马元老院一开始也是有制约能力的。--empirical question, history can answer that. Keep in mind, Rome has no constitution and 3 branchs. It is different now.
所以钱穆说得好：没有永远合适的制度，制度必须靠人来执行。--good point, America has declining civic education and the young generation know Britany Spear well, but had little knowledge about the civic tradition and republic ideal--very dangerous sign in US now--even the retired former Supreme Court Justice Sandra O'Connor showed serious concern on this issue. The only good point is that the civic traditions are still strong in New England, the bedrock of American democracy.
至于举的轮胎特保案，实际上这是美国国内政治游戏的一部分，已经先就跟我们协调好的，答辩只是作秀，不管谁去说，结果都一样。所以国内没人当回事情了。郎咸平这么嘲笑，第一不厚道，第二也是外行，
--答辩只是作秀，不管谁去说，结果都一样。hehe, but at least can you send somebody who can speak English well and who at least showed some logic in debate? Now I understand your logic--that might explain why some senior diplomats in North America can not even speak English or French well... anyway, they do not matter and their incompetence is not an embarrassment to China, right??
郎咸平这么嘲笑，第一不厚道，第二也是外行--hehe, you keep your opinion. I have mine.
中美贸易摩擦的本质不是微观问题，更不是他说的固特异在中国建厂理由这种雕虫小技就可以糊弄得了的，美国政治家如果这么弱智，美国早完了。
--If you can present a solid legal argument, at least the court still might rule in favor of you. Before the rubber case, there was one case in which one Chinese nail maker fought in US court and did win (other chinese exporters never replied, thus faced all penalty customs rate).
If you can not even build a solid case, of course, it is easier to trade your industry off politically--because America does not have to bend its own law. America played fire against European exporters before and was hit back badly: European exporters use law firms which employed former senator and administration officials as partners to fight in court. They are using American elites to fight against the current political elites.
Of course, those retired senators are not cheap--but it is still cheaper to engage those law firms since you keep your US market share.
美国政治家如果这么弱智，美国早完了。--this is not China, court is separate from the executive system. You can play dirty, but you can not play too dirtily in the court. MOST COURT DOCUMENTS ARE AVAILABLE TO PUBLIC VIEWING.
主动自己套上一些枷锁：劳动保护法，人权保障等等- if you call labor protection, better pay, better labor right protections as 枷锁, THEN I STRONGLY DISAGREE WITH YOU.
Chinese have been cheap 苦力 for more than 100 years. There is one specific English word refers to the dirty cheap chinese labor--IT IS GLOBALLY FAMOUS. The sad thing is that the chinese elites also share the same perspectives when they deal with THEIR OWN COMPATRIOTS.
If you believe that average Chinese deserve to work so hard and still get 500RMB+ every month without 劳动保护法，人权保障, then I can only give you my contempt.
In china, 劳动保护法，人权保障 are TOO LITTLE, TOO LIMITED AND NEVER SERIOIUSLY ENFORCED. Where can you find a nation on the earth in WHICH THE HARD-WORKING LABOR NEEDS TO burn himself, or threat to jump off the building or commit suicide just in order to get his due salary before SPRING FESTIVAL???????????
In the last 30 years, China's labor productivity has been growing at a rate of around 5% due to capital investment and technology improvement. But the labor wage as a percentage of national income keeps on declining over the last 30 years.
The benefits of growth goes mostly to the economic/political elite classes and average working class did not enjoy the fair share of cake they deserve--nobody represents their INTERESTS in the political system and their voices were crowded out.
Now Chinese middle-class was pulled down due to high real estate prices and inflation.
That's why China's consumption/GDP ratio is as low as 38% these days and China has no domestic purchasing power in relation to its production capacity.
That's what you call 枷锁：劳动保护法，人权保障等等!!
Nike's Asian suppliers totally abused their Asian workers (many were Chinese) with insufficient labor protection, insufficient toilet facility, poor cafe. Those Asian managers did not change until Nike sent out labor practice compliance teams to constantly check their labor practices.
I do not understand why some Chinese believe that 劳动保护法
is 枷锁---do Chinese deserve to be treated as pigs? Do not they deserve higher pay in line with productivity growth, better toilet facilities? My God. Can not believe your last comments.
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当然瓦解后再凤凰涅槃的可能目前只能指望中国。
when you have multiple players in Euro-Asia and they are of equal size of powers, the Euro-Asia landmass will not have peace.
Trust me. That's lesson from history.
The collapse of Western Roman empire brought the once civilized Europe into the famous dark age with different lords fighting against each other constantly between 5th century to 11th century.
Post-empire era is not as colorful as you imagine. If US power is completely withdrawn from the middle-east, Iran might change from China's strong partner into a potential regional competitor. Russia can also lean toward competitor rather than a cooperator.
China is far from taking over the whole Asia as well as the middle-east threshold now. Good luck if you believe that you can single-handedly handle the Islam fundamentalism problem.
为这个目前的地位付出了多大的代价，基本上是所有人，无一例外。你以为中国今天的地位是老天爷赏赐的，是天上掉下来的。就算我认识的央企的高级管理人员（ceo，cfo，coo等等），10多年来基本上是星期天休息不肯定，星期六肯定不休息，在办公室彻夜不眠经常的事情，40来岁积劳成疾的有的是，为什么，不就是为了追赶吗？我们能够这样，民工也能够这样。洋人就不高兴了，觉得你们没人性，是该鄙视的经济动物，应该限制你们劳动的权力，这才是滑天下之大稽，可耻。你知道劳动法导致多少人失业吗？有饭吃的人指责没饭吃的人不应该干那些脏活，累活，是不是很荒唐。我还是要用汶川地震时农民兄弟的话：美国是不是不干活就有饭吃？在家里等着就有汽车开？政府发房子发老婆？
我们今天的进步和地位是两代人心血和汗水的结晶，这是强调极端个人主义的西方文化所永远不能理解的。我们目前问题巨多，前途凶险，但是我们这个民族有坚韧不拔的精神和疯狂追求幸福的动力，20年前，民工为能够获得血汗工厂的位置都要打破头，今天他们的后代已经不屑于进血汗工厂，这就是我们的进步。我相信再过20年，他们的下一代，就可以在升级的产业链上与美国鬼子平等竞争了，那个时候美国鬼子千万不要说：你们还是回去当奴隶，办血汗工厂吧。
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因为他们觉得如果不是体制的限制，以自己的能力还能过的更滋润。
贩卖免煮食油的这些人其实都是既得利益者，跟着起哄的绝大多数也都是既得利益者。
尤其最后一段与我有特殊意义，您说的也是我所思考的。
实际微观意义上的投机与个人的所得而言并非坏事（但是对绝大多数人是坏事），您说的官办赌场的观点，俺一半赞同一半不赞同，这个就不多说了，俺不是理论专家，就和芒总一样，上战场以后俺眼里只有利润没有其他的东西，虚头八脑的东西从来都是被扫在一边的。
俺很佩服您，不仅仅是您的经历以及人生态度让我感叹，更重要的是您在经历这么多看了那么多之后，仍然保持着激情。为官在商的现实规则，实际上很难让一般人保持这么久的激情，更多的是精神上的失望（和收益成绩无关）。去年下半年，国安因某人卷走两个多亿问话，那个某人在我印象中一直是个富有激情富有理想勇于实践并取得巨大成绩对社会有很大贡献的人，这不仅仅是物质利益的问题，何至于此。。。 。。。