主题：【原创】“中国崩溃论”屡屡崩溃的根本原因 -- 比的原理

国有企业不能削弱还要加强 不搞私有化

http://politics.caijing.com.cn/20140913/3697437.shtml

看来，分歧还不小。

外链出处

美国2011年就开始净出口了，美国进口大量的原油，但同时出口更多的石油制品。

中国石油定价的合不合理要比较着看。我已经说了，净进口国里，没有一个国家油价明显低于中国。你觉得原油自给率会影响油价，完全可以在自给率比中国高的净进口国里找找看，有没有油价明显比中国低的。

今年4月的数据，还不算太旧。油价比中国低的全部是净出口国。

不少净出口国的油价比中国还高，按照某人的逻辑，挪威政府一定在掠夺有车族的财富并且有重大贪腐可能。作为主要的原油输出国，油价居然全球第一。

外链出处

1 Norway 9.79

2 Netherlands 9.46

3 Italy 9.34

4 Denmark 9.14

5 Greece 8.81

6 Belgium 8.68

7 Portugal 8.56

8 Germany 8.50

9 Turkey 8.47

10 Finland 8.44

11 Israel 8.28

12 Hong Kong 8.26

13 United Kingdom 8.25

14 Ireland 8.15

15 France 7.90

16 Sweden 7.89

17 Slovenia 7.74

18 Malta 7.66

19 Cyprus 7.53

20 Slovakia 7.52

21 Switzerland 7.51

22 Spain 7.43

23 Croatia 7.40

24 Romania 7.38

25 Austria 7.13

26 Hungary 7.05

27 Luxembourg 7.02

28 New Zealand 6.94

29 Latvia 6.92

30 Czech Republic 6.85

31 Lithuania 6.82

32 Bulgaria 6.73

32 Estonia 6.73

34 Poland 6.71

35 South Korea 6.65

36 Singapore 6.55

37 Japan 5.84

38 Chile 5.81

39 Brazil 5.35

40 Argentina 5.34

41 Australia 5.27

42 South Africa 4.97

43 India 4.79

44 China 4.73

45 Canada 4.50

46 Philippines 4.48

47 Thailand 4.46

48 Colombia 4.20

49 Pakistan 4.08

50 Indonesia 3.73

51 United States 3.69

52 Mexico 3.58

53 Russia 3.19

54 Malaysia 2.42

55 Nigeria 2.23

56 United Arab Emirates 1.77

57 Iran 1.52

58 Egypt 1.01

59 Kuwait 0.81

60 Saudi Arabia 0.45

61 Venezuela 0.04

(单位全部是美元/加仑)

it is very interesting to compare "china model" with "US model"

1.

now, china side

"更完善的毛细血管循环系统，这才能从更长远上保住国有经济占核心的地位"

plus side:

TG's may be thinking of that way, and it may have a lot of rooms to do that as well.

and as long as china economy keeps growing, global capital will stay, because basically US gdp growth rate is about 3%, and Europe zero, there is not many places you can find china kind of growth rate;

so, likely, china will be ok, in terms of preventing capital (now global, including Chinese 民资), and attracting capital.

minus side

the fundamental problem of "china model": due to its largely 国有经济 nature, china does not really have a "white" private ownership and law based system, a capital market in particular, and we all know that other than financing function, a super important function of capital market is information processing;

then, china model can never really catch up on the innovation and value-added growth side of the game, still relying on largely government financed growth which is almost always capital wasting and lacks innovation and value added growth.

and because of that "plus side", TG will never be forced to do real reform hoped by those "real" capitalists or 右派,民资, and likely they will speculate, instead of invest in china.

as you said, "民资的特点本来就是无利不起早——但同时又往往是鼠目寸光。你不给他们点甜头，没人跟你玩。但我党的特色不就是初一十五不一样么", 右派,民资, all global capital market all know that too, capital market is efficient in long run, and as a result, 我党 has to pay a risk premium adjusted for 我党's risk of 初一十五不一样;

and considering the lack of competitive information processing systems such as capital market, 我党 will end up with a low efficiency economy after paying higher risk premium for capital.

so in long run, 我党 will be squeezed in that economic game.

now, why TG plays trick like this? it could be many for many reasons, most likely, TG really wants to 保住国有经济占核心的地位, or and without 国有经济占核心, TG will be a military and political power only, even domestically;

or TG top could be still struggling as about the fundament direction going forward:

go "white", go "右" with two feet jumping in? even economically doing that requires political reform of huge steps;

now, with domestic Chinese "common people" ("educated" by 毛主席) watching TG very closely, and with Uncle Sam tightening up "containing china", TG is kind of squeezed in the middle.

luckily, for the next few years, TG's economic growth will be ok likely, so, just hang on there, not doing much, in terms of economic or political reform.

domestically politically, TG seems confident and in control, not much risk there. and I always think that "majority" of Chinese people support TG.

meanwhile, TG will be watching if Hillary get into white house,etc

2.

the us side

its innovation and growth sectors will be growing even faster,

and US is very lucky too, its energy independence is almost there, and all kinds of new models of manufacturing competing with china are testing out domestically, a very elastic system with a lot of potentials.

and its attraction of financial and human brain capital world wide grows even stronger, particularly after 2008 financial crisis, and now the world sees that "china model" may well have topped out.

TPP. uncle sam hopes to get that TPP thing going, and if TPP can make it work to some extent, get the TPP market set up and economy growing, then that will possibly suck out of a lot of capital out of china's high growth, high risk and low efficiency economy.

I don't know, but I personally guess TPP is a very difficult thing to do, so TG may be lucky again.

所以，对于他们自己的国家，他们研究的如楼主所说的，是如何烧炉子才不会烧爆炉子

但是对于其他“非主流”国家，如教主所言，他们嘴上说，不要管，让炉子自己烧，内心里实际上是说，这个炉子只有我们会烧，你们是不会的，不会烧乱烧更容易爆，所以要么请我们来帮你烧，要么就不要烧.....

市场原教旨 is almost the "evil" to "most" Chinese.

1.

two critical concepts.

first, it is all about information processing.

you need an almost 原教旨市场 system to have a multiple information processing systems, independent of and competing with each other, such as that in USA, and only in USA.

USD as a reserve currency, a big part of that=USD is a currency with much higher information content.

information/测度 is and will be becoming even more important, it is almost as important as legal system of private ownership, a "good" constitutions etc.

secondly, it is all about innovation and growth.

another pillar of 市场原教旨思想 is system's top priority is promoting innovation and growth, welfare of society or reducing income gap are subject to system's #1 top priority.

not only that, to promote innovation and growth, those innovation and growth agent(more and more of informational and financial capitalists )are always rewarded with a huge premium, with everything else (such as raw material) and everybody else (such as average workers) are priced at a steep discount, leading to even worse income disparity of the society.

that is an issue, but it does not and should not change economic system's top priority of innovation and growth.

that is obviously a challenge to the current system.

and for biological or social system of dissipative nature/开放耗散系统, there is no "best" or not even "good" option in terms of system design, there is only the lessor of two evils.

市场原教旨 is an evil, but the lessor of the two evils, likely for the foreseeable future, if not forever(:).

2.

now, having been educated by 毛主席, and having seen the "dark" side of white society, Chinese "common" people are even more 左 than TG top itself.

and among TG top, red gen II folks, are more 左 than those Jiang and Hu engineers.

大部分国家都不适合烧炉子，爆缸实属正常。正八景适合烧路子的国家不多。

basically a 凯恩斯"永动机" model by printing money.

or "长动机" model, there is really no "永动机". period.

now, challenges.

1.

Japan did that, not working after 长时间

2.

you cannot do it globally for 长时间, or we have just invented a 永动机.

3.

now, US Fed QE is not really printing money like Japan did.

ECB has not even started QE.

and global capital market will figure out who is really doing printing money driven 永动机, yes, all central banks kind of all doing some version of that today, but the "most bad" guy/country will be punished by capital market.

3.

TG still have some real money in the pocket at central government level, a lot of them.

TG can do the 永动机 thing without not much money printing at all, but for how long?

yes, after real money financed 永动机 stops, TG can start money printing financed 永动机.

but again, global capital market is watching everybody, and it seems that TG top knows that, and they don't want to take the risk of being picked up as the "most bad" guy and get punished, with capital outflow possibly of huge scale.

now, even without doing that at all, TG top has been already trying kiss ass of global capital market (Chinese domestic 民间资本 included, now all global) by 私有化国产, with some of them almost at yard sale. TG is already a little nervous of Chinese economic growth slowing down and its poor quality of growth, if any quality at all.

TG top 不敢.

and I always think, that TG top wants to do the best for Chinese nation, and it seems "majority" of Chinese people think that way too.

so, TG top better watches out for his ass, and be a good guy, or continue to pretend that way(:).

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作者，声望:1；铢钱:16。你，乐善:1；铢钱:15。本帖花:1

我真的笑了

所得税税额=应纳税所得额*税率

您觉得您所谓那莫名其妙消失的100亿中间，所得税应该占了多少？

而不应该反问。

没有公开资料，我只能猜测。这不是我的错，这是中石化的错。

您怎么没提，之前一年时间涨了多少？而且出了这个消息，A股怎么没怎么跌？

换种方式理解，或许混合所有制之前是个概念，现在利好出尽就是利空？

每个人都可以有自己的方式来解读，为什么您的就是对的呢？

我无意提中石化辩护，自己也不怎么炒股。

我只是反对您没有经过仔细论证的盲目的结论。群情激奋很容易，一呼百应感觉也会很好。但是这里是西西河，不是百度贴吧也不是天涯论坛。我们讲究真凭实据，理性的推导和科学的结论。

您一篇漏洞百出的雄文或许可以征服很多读者，但是从我眼中来看，有很多问题，所以提出和您讨论，希望您能仔细的思考其中或许有其他可能性，您一定要扯到国有资产流失，暗示本届政府私分国有资产，我和您争的不是这个，而是您的方法和仓促得出的结论，不是这个政治议题本身。

最后我再强调一下，这里是西西河，这里需要理性的推导，耐心求证，键盘政治局谁都会，可是有何意义？