主题：欧洲将死,G-2当立! 立此存照 -- parishg
家园 欧洲将死,G-2当立! 立此存照 2009PIGs=1997Asia,
Long Live American Dollars!
Pax Americana-Chinois Empire!
This time, the wave started from Greece will flood all PIIGs (except for Ireland, thumbs up for Ireland) and then hit France and Germany.
THIS CRISIS WILL LAST FOR A WHILE. American hedge funds have started a final attack: let's feast the flesh of those PIGs!
Arguments:
1. Austria lent agressively to Eastern Europe--most are now European subprime loans. In Q4, 2008, the Lehman-induced global capital reflow back to USD results in a total collapse in the Eastern Europe. Austrian banks' problems have been covered up in the media.
Austrian banking crisis ignited the WWII and resulted in the German crash in 1932.
As Rumsfield said: there is known unknown, but there is lots of unknown unknown.... Remember butterfly theory?
2. If PIGs need to drop out, there will be a period of introduction of new currencies, as well as banking system switch. All PIGs nationals will want to keep their Greek/Spain/Italian Euros in German Euros. There will be massive capital flows into and out of the core nations.
The breakup of Euroland is really unimaginable process and ALL CORE NATIONS will experience dramatic increase in currency circulation and then dramatic decrease in currency circulation.
That will be THEIR MOST VULNERABLE PERIOD and Americans will not give them an easy breathe, unless Euro becomes a totally nonconvertible currency--which naturally will hit its reserve currency status.
3. Big unkown--keep in mind, many mid-east oil money is now in Euro. If they panic and withdraw, there will be huge capital outflow--very bad.
1997's Asia was full of cracks(trade inbalance, free capital flow, high-growth, real estate bubble, banking speculation) , today's PIGs have exactly all the symptoms. If I were George Soros, I would attack from ITS WEAKEST link. It was Thailand then, it is Greece now. Gradually, Asian/European banking money will also participate into this Fleecing.
The worse thing in Europe: unions are so strong that nobody wants to sacrifice for their own nation's fiscal balance. Greeks will go on strike, Portugals are in the process; Spaniards are the next.
Fiscal incredibility
+ Let-us-die-together-public-sector unions
+ Selfish German/Frenchmen who refused to help
+ an EU that's dysfunctional without a federal treasury function
+ Welfare payment dries up due to budget cuts
+ Unemployed restless young muslims who are appeased by the past welfare payment.
+ American/British strategiest & vulture hedge funds who are thirsty for the flesh and who failed to crack open China
= ?
I always believe that the death of Lehman was totally a conspiracy of Paulson and Bernanke. For Bernanke, ECB has been an annoying threat for years.
Let's wait and see whether my predictions are accurate or not.
本帖一共被 2 帖 引用 (帖内工具实现)家园 update--Portugal Suffering G Portugal Suffering Greek Contagion Pressures EU Bonds
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=akQrIx8SPMHo
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=afOnq_UPg6VM&pos=1
So it begins...
Brothers, feast on the flesh of Europe!
欧洲将死,G-2当立! 立此存照
家园 欧洲将死,G-2当立2_update Germans prove to the world again that they are narrow-minded people who can not afford the leadership role for the Euroland.
Euro to fall next week!
Germany's Merkel Says Greece Doesn't Need Financial Support
from WSJ.com, new article.
By MARCUS WALKER
BERLIN—German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Sunday said Greece doesn't need financial support and European Union leaders shouldn't make the question of aid for Greece the focus of their summit later this week.
In an interview with Deutschlandfunk radio, Ms. Merkel warned other European leaders against unsettling financial markets by raising "false expectations" that there will be a decision on aid for Greece this week. She said Greece should sort out its own debt problems despite growing calls from other European policy makers for Germany to back stronger support for Greece.
Tensions are growing between Germany and other EU countries over Greece's debt crisis and the bloc's wider economic strains ahead of the EU's summit in Brussels on Thursday and Friday. Other European policy makers are becoming frustrated at Germany's blocking of stronger action within the 16-nation euro-currency zone to end uncertainty over whether Greece can repay its debts.
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Reuters
German Chancellor Angela Merkel attends a federal state party congress of the Christian Union Party (CDU) in Muenster, Germany on Saturday.
EUGREECE
EUGREECE
Germany's government faces strong domestic resistance from voters and lawmakers to any bailouts of euro-zone members that, unlike Germany, have pursued loose spending policies in recent years.
After Athens said last week that it might turn to the International Monetary Fund for help, European Commission President José Manuel Barroso urged EU member states to agree to a standby-aid package of bilateral loans for Greece at this week's summit. He said that action was needed rapidly.
Ms. Merkel, whose approval is vital for any aid because of Germany's financial muscle, on Sunday rejected that assessment. "I don't see that Greece needs money at the moment, and the Greek government has confirmed that. That's why I'd urge us not to stir up turbulence in the markets by raising false expectations for Thursday's council meeting," she said. "I believe that as long as Greece doesn't need help this issue doesn't have to be at the forefront of our talks," she added.
EU leaders are nevertheless expected to discuss the issue, as many countries are eager to end the months of uncertainty surrounding Greece.
"There's no looming insolvency," Ms. Merkel said Sunday. Later, the German government issued a statement saying Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou told Ms. Merkel in a telephone conversation Sunday that "Greece needs no financial aid."
However, while Greek officials say they aren't asking for money, Prime Minister George Papandreou said last week he wants European governments to put a money offer on the table to show financial markets Greece has a safety net. That would allow Greece to borrow on bond markets at less-punitive interest rates, Mr. Papandreou said. He warned Greece might have to seek IMF help otherwise.
Ms. Merkel recognized that Greece is pressing the EU to make its contingency plans more explicit. "Greece would like to have a certain clarity for an eventuality it can't completely rule out," Ms. Merkel said. She added: "The best solution for the euro is for Greece to resolve its problems by itself—naturally with political support from European leaders."
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704454004575135803835301946.html?mod=WSJ_WorldMarkets_LeadStory#articleTabs%3Darticle
complete article, click the link
家园 几年过去，欧洲依然没有起色， 看来是如你所说的。
家园 英美就是邪恶 人家好好的怎么就成了猪呢？SPIG或者按地理位置顺序PSIG不是挺好。
家园 欧洲弥漫着一股腐烂的气息 但是有一个最不可预测的变数：俄罗斯。估计欧洲会以一个崭新而可怕的面貌走出危机。
家园 鹅卵石人口负增长是最大的内伤，最近还要买高卢鸡的两栖攻击 舰，曾经多么庞大的造船工业，老本差不多要吃完了，好在卖资源也能继续活下去。远东地区狠多村庄已经没有人烟了，不知道中国将来农村地区会不会也出现类似景况，我老家已经变成了老人村，年轻一代是留不住的。没有多少新增年轻人口，实在是致命伤。
家园 又要加速实现城镇化，又想偏僻农村有人住，难啊！ 不知道中国将来农村地区会不会也出现类似景况，我老家已经变成了老人村，年轻一代是留不住的。您为何不从自己做起，舍弃大城市的繁华到老家去生活？
家园 最多就是我的预测：如果有第三次世界大战，战场还是在欧洲 这个对于中美几乎是最佳选择。唯一担心的是俄国的核弹。
所以，美国应该鼓动欧洲发动一次在地中海到红海之间的区域战争，但是问题是欧洲是否有这个能力进行战争了。
一声叹息。
家园 同意你对欧洲的预测，他们进入泥潭了，想出来得脱层皮 但是中国是否能够从中捡到便宜我看未必。因为我们目前兴趣在国内，没有把手伸到人家的地盘里去。不过最近希腊来申请要求中国介入，可能反而是个介入的机会，没准一下就发现发力的杠杆。