主题：欧洲将死,G-2当立! 立此存照 -- parishg

2009PIGs=1997Asia,

Long Live American Dollars!

Pax Americana-Chinois Empire!

This time, the wave started from Greece will flood all PIIGs (except for Ireland, thumbs up for Ireland) and then hit France and Germany.

THIS CRISIS WILL LAST FOR A WHILE. American hedge funds have started a final attack: let's feast the flesh of those PIGs!

Arguments:

1. Austria lent agressively to Eastern Europe--most are now European subprime loans. In Q4, 2008, the Lehman-induced global capital reflow back to USD results in a total collapse in the Eastern Europe. Austrian banks' problems have been covered up in the media.

Austrian banking crisis ignited the WWII and resulted in the German crash in 1932.

As Rumsfield said: there is known unknown, but there is lots of unknown unknown.... Remember butterfly theory?

2. If PIGs need to drop out, there will be a period of introduction of new currencies, as well as banking system switch. All PIGs nationals will want to keep their Greek/Spain/Italian Euros in German Euros. There will be massive capital flows into and out of the core nations.

The breakup of Euroland is really unimaginable process and ALL CORE NATIONS will experience dramatic increase in currency circulation and then dramatic decrease in currency circulation.

That will be THEIR MOST VULNERABLE PERIOD and Americans will not give them an easy breathe, unless Euro becomes a totally nonconvertible currency--which naturally will hit its reserve currency status.

3. Big unkown--keep in mind, many mid-east oil money is now in Euro. If they panic and withdraw, there will be huge capital outflow--very bad.

1997's Asia was full of cracks(trade inbalance, free capital flow, high-growth, real estate bubble, banking speculation) , today's PIGs have exactly all the symptoms. If I were George Soros, I would attack from ITS WEAKEST link. It was Thailand then, it is Greece now. Gradually, Asian/European banking money will also participate into this Fleecing.

The worse thing in Europe: unions are so strong that nobody wants to sacrifice for their own nation's fiscal balance. Greeks will go on strike, Portugals are in the process; Spaniards are the next.

Fiscal incredibility

+ Let-us-die-together-public-sector unions

+ Selfish German/Frenchmen who refused to help

+ an EU that's dysfunctional without a federal treasury function

+ Welfare payment dries up due to budget cuts

+ Unemployed restless young muslims who are appeased by the past welfare payment.

+ American/British strategiest & vulture hedge funds who are thirsty for the flesh and who failed to crack open China

= ?

I always believe that the death of Lehman was totally a conspiracy of Paulson and Bernanke. For Bernanke, ECB has been an annoying threat for years.

Let's wait and see whether my predictions are accurate or not.

• like you description of EU
• my predictions