主题：欧洲将死,G-2当立! 立此存照 -- parishg
2009PIGs=1997Asia,
Long Live American Dollars!
Pax Americana-Chinois Empire!
This time, the wave started from Greece will flood all PIIGs (except for Ireland, thumbs up for Ireland) and then hit France and Germany.
THIS CRISIS WILL LAST FOR A WHILE. American hedge funds have started a final attack: let's feast the flesh of those PIGs!
Arguments:
1. Austria lent agressively to Eastern Europe--most are now European subprime loans. In Q4, 2008, the Lehman-induced global capital reflow back to USD results in a total collapse in the Eastern Europe. Austrian banks' problems have been covered up in the media.
Austrian banking crisis ignited the WWII and resulted in the German crash in 1932.
As Rumsfield said: there is known unknown, but there is lots of unknown unknown.... Remember butterfly theory?
2. If PIGs need to drop out, there will be a period of introduction of new currencies, as well as banking system switch. All PIGs nationals will want to keep their Greek/Spain/Italian Euros in German Euros. There will be massive capital flows into and out of the core nations.
The breakup of Euroland is really unimaginable process and ALL CORE NATIONS will experience dramatic increase in currency circulation and then dramatic decrease in currency circulation.
That will be THEIR MOST VULNERABLE PERIOD and Americans will not give them an easy breathe, unless Euro becomes a totally nonconvertible currency--which naturally will hit its reserve currency status.
3. Big unkown--keep in mind, many mid-east oil money is now in Euro. If they panic and withdraw, there will be huge capital outflow--very bad.
1997's Asia was full of cracks(trade inbalance, free capital flow, high-growth, real estate bubble, banking speculation) , today's PIGs have exactly all the symptoms. If I were George Soros, I would attack from ITS WEAKEST link. It was Thailand then, it is Greece now. Gradually, Asian/European banking money will also participate into this Fleecing.
The worse thing in Europe: unions are so strong that nobody wants to sacrifice for their own nation's fiscal balance. Greeks will go on strike, Portugals are in the process; Spaniards are the next.
Fiscal incredibility
+ Let-us-die-together-public-sector unions
+ Selfish German/Frenchmen who refused to help
+ an EU that's dysfunctional without a federal treasury function
+ Welfare payment dries up due to budget cuts
+ Unemployed restless young muslims who are appeased by the past welfare payment.
+ American/British strategiest & vulture hedge funds who are thirsty for the flesh and who failed to crack open China
= ?
I always believe that the death of Lehman was totally a conspiracy of Paulson and Bernanke. For Bernanke, ECB has been an annoying threat for years.
Let's wait and see whether my predictions are accurate or not.
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看看下面这片Economist的文章，我觉得里面分析的挺有道理。欧洲不是东南亚，经济，政治，外交实力完全不是一个层面上的。
administration, today's Greece is just a third-world country. It is a democratic parliamentary nation--people will not swallow the harsh fiscal policy easily. If they swallow, the current gov. will not be stable too.
Same problem in Spain and Portugal.
By pushing up national bonds yields of both Portugal and Greeks, Anglo-American vulture funds are slowly destablizing these countries' credit market as well as social order.
Germans are fighting back now.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&sid=ajfpD1.Sa8GM
I read the Economist article before. Let time decides whether my predictions are right or not. When it comes to war and financial warfare, Germans are no match to their Anglo-Saxon brothers.
This fight will last for a while.
但是中国是否能够从中捡到便宜我看未必。因为我们目前兴趣在国内，没有把手伸到人家的地盘里去。不过最近希腊来申请要求中国介入，可能反而是个介入的机会，没准一下就发现发力的杠杆。
老欧脱皮，中国的压力就会小了很多！
欧洲只能算大学生级，美国只能算中学生级。
太自在、太舒服了！让老欧们伤筋动骨，这样中国（穷人）才有翻身的希望 
但是有一个最不可预测的变数：俄罗斯。估计欧洲会以一个崭新而可怕的面貌走出危机。
想一想90年苏联倒了中国日子好过不好过，就知道三足鼎立，还是G2对中国更好了。
这个对于中美几乎是最佳选择。唯一担心的是俄国的核弹。
所以，美国应该鼓动欧洲发动一次在地中海到红海之间的区域战争，但是问题是欧洲是否有这个能力进行战争了。
一声叹息。
这个目标是谁呢？貌似北非+近东欧洲人的影响力很深啊。俄国人其实性格上挺有意思的，真不好预测，可能是最难预测的一个国家和民族了。欧洲的不发达部分这次集体发威，老欧洲估计要吃不消了，可能会有些比较剧烈的变动……
我还有个担心。欧美毕竟同文同种，会不会一起来宰割中国？
那里最乱，但是现在还没有目标么。就是这里可以搞一搞。最好的借口就是西欧的穆斯林问题，而后开打吧。其实也很难打起来。
能打的例如美国中国俄国不想打，想打的例如近东中东，没有钱和武器，打不动。世界和平居然是这样保证的。
五体投地一下