主题：【文摘】Times 发表评论,总体对国内股市不甚乐观 -- 非洲母鸡

今天刚看到的

全文见如下连接

http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,501070212-1584109,00.html

中间抽几段我觉得表明态度的

"Take the country's largest life-insurance company, China Life, which trades in Shanghai, Hong Kong and New York. On Jan. 31, China Life shares had a price/earnings ratio of around 70 (a stock's P/E ratio measures the amount investors are paying for every dollar of per-share earnings). That's a richer multiple than investors are shelling out for fast-growing Google, the investing world's flashiest Internet phenomenon. Nor are high prices confined to just a few Chinese stocks. Webb estimates the average P/E for so-called "A" shares (stocks available to mainland investors on China's Shanghai and Shenzhen bourses) at 34; the current P/E for U.S. stocks in the S&P 500 Index is 18. Want more proof? According to a recent report by investment bank JP Morgan, out of 37 Chinese companies listed jointly in Shanghai and Hong Kong, eight trade on the mainland at valuations at least double those quoted in Hong Kong. "The risk-reward picture is unhealthy at the moment," says Frank Gong, JP Morgan's chief economist for China. "The market has undoubtedly moved ahead of itself."

这个基本上说现在国内股收益率远超美国同期水平, 一些不甚健康的企业(例如中国人寿),收益超过google,而且不止一股两股,大面积如此.

In 2006, Chinese companies raised more than $53 billion in the Hong Kong and Shanghai markets through IPOs and secondary share offerings, up from $24 billion the year before. Among them was the largest IPO in history, November's $22 billion listing in Hong Kong and Shanghai by Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC). Despite the fact that Chinese banks are known for their lack of transparency and weak management, ICBC was a wild success. Its share price at one point soared 70% above its initial offering price of 39 in Hong Kong. That pushed the bank's market cap so high that for a while it was valued as the second largest financial institution in the world behind giant Citigroup. The appetite for China stocks has encouraged other big corporations to tap the market. Analysts say they're expecting China Mobile, the world's largest mobile-phone company, to issue additional shares this year. Ping An Insurance, China's second largest life insurer, and oil-and-gas conglomerate PetroChina are also expected to issue more shares. There's no way all can be winners, says Nicholas Yeo, a fund manager for Aberdeen Asset Management. "One of these large IPOs last year would have been impressive," Yeo says. "But can they keep pulling them off? Probably not."

这段说全年IPO的企业如此之多,而且还都是大企业,不顾其经营状况, 一律疯涨, 非常罕见.泡沫一定存在

但是文章最后也说了, 泡沫似乎不会迅速崩溃,因为目前大家信心都无比之好, 最多也就预计涨幅变小, 觉得年内不会有跌势.这样的信心必然能在推手小时之后仍然维持一段时间的虚高.

我只概述一下, 河里高手出来评论吧

大批量限售股解禁，中国经济硬着陆，这都不是12个月内会发生的事。

要说P/E，股价泡沫，越南、印度、新兴市场全都是一个比一个疯，为什么？就是货币供应太多，实在找不到泄洪的地方，新兴市场能那么疯就是给人的遐想无限。当然泡沫最后会破，但不是现在。为什么不是现在？因为没有trigger event。泡沫要破，必须有大量的庄家、基金抛售，散户没有这个能耐开创熊市。现在庄家基金都是有钱无处用的地步。

中国硬着陆肯定会发生，不过不会在2007年，害怕的今年底全部出光离场就行了，中国经济硬着陆会引发基金抛盘。限售股的解禁高潮在09年，06，07，解禁的就算全部抛光了也不到市场的10%市值。08年是个转机，解禁量将达到市值（如果不变）的20%以上，09年可达60%，这都是大盘抛售，可以引发熊市，而且这两个年份与现在普遍预计中国硬着陆的年份都很接近，所以要非常小心。

Times不过是一片打头阵唱衰的，要形成一种彼此唱衰的气氛，起码都要好几个月，中国股市远没到顶。有句话叫做升市莫猜顶。

• 花谢!

会怎么样？

先把钱赚到了，再怎么硬着陆也不怕，大不了移民呗。

现在回调得差不多，等到期指出来升势会相当可观，这是一个重大利好。现在中国股市处于一个很少见的机会，国内有大量的货币因为人民币不能自由兑换无法走出来，到底能够利用地下渠道的人是少数，一般才几十万几百万的他就算把钱弄出来以后他自己不能再国外生活也是白搭。同时，美国为了延缓危机发生必须大印钞票，中国为了保证就业必须阻止大幅升值，其实就是中国帮美国消灭了多余的美元，代价就是国内到处乱串的人民币，再加上银行的事实负利率，房产流动性不足，股市要吸收的货币多着呢。

对于一个不能自由兑换货币的市场来说，P/E是没有意义的，美国股票的P/E是比中国低很多，但是一般的中国人能出来买吗？德国的P/E还低，但是很多美国人都无法投资，因为不懂语言，没有渠道。中国股市的P/E只能够与中国楼市的P/E相比，中国房子的租金收益率是世界平均的1/2，1/3，在中国买房子连土地产权都没有，靠租金要2-3倍的时间才能收回成本，从这方面来说，中国股市就不显得昂贵了。

如果美国的股灾了，经济重创，中国的股市才会发生深刻危机。现在的中国股市回调，美国高位徘徊，所以再跌有限。不是说美国不会重创，不过还没那么快。疯狂总是在最后的那段最滋润。