主题：【文摘】Times 发表评论,总体对国内股市不甚乐观 -- 非洲母鸡

今天刚看到的

全文见如下连接

http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,501070212-1584109,00.html

中间抽几段我觉得表明态度的

"Take the country's largest life-insurance company, China Life, which trades in Shanghai, Hong Kong and New York. On Jan. 31, China Life shares had a price/earnings ratio of around 70 (a stock's P/E ratio measures the amount investors are paying for every dollar of per-share earnings). That's a richer multiple than investors are shelling out for fast-growing Google, the investing world's flashiest Internet phenomenon. Nor are high prices confined to just a few Chinese stocks. Webb estimates the average P/E for so-called "A" shares (stocks available to mainland investors on China's Shanghai and Shenzhen bourses) at 34; the current P/E for U.S. stocks in the S&P 500 Index is 18. Want more proof? According to a recent report by investment bank JP Morgan, out of 37 Chinese companies listed jointly in Shanghai and Hong Kong, eight trade on the mainland at valuations at least double those quoted in Hong Kong. "The risk-reward picture is unhealthy at the moment," says Frank Gong, JP Morgan's chief economist for China. "The market has undoubtedly moved ahead of itself."

这个基本上说现在国内股收益率远超美国同期水平, 一些不甚健康的企业(例如中国人寿),收益超过google,而且不止一股两股,大面积如此.

In 2006, Chinese companies raised more than $53 billion in the Hong Kong and Shanghai markets through IPOs and secondary share offerings, up from $24 billion the year before. Among them was the largest IPO in history, November's $22 billion listing in Hong Kong and Shanghai by Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC). Despite the fact that Chinese banks are known for their lack of transparency and weak management, ICBC was a wild success. Its share price at one point soared 70% above its initial offering price of 39 in Hong Kong. That pushed the bank's market cap so high that for a while it was valued as the second largest financial institution in the world behind giant Citigroup. The appetite for China stocks has encouraged other big corporations to tap the market. Analysts say they're expecting China Mobile, the world's largest mobile-phone company, to issue additional shares this year. Ping An Insurance, China's second largest life insurer, and oil-and-gas conglomerate PetroChina are also expected to issue more shares. There's no way all can be winners, says Nicholas Yeo, a fund manager for Aberdeen Asset Management. "One of these large IPOs last year would have been impressive," Yeo says. "But can they keep pulling them off? Probably not."

这段说全年IPO的企业如此之多,而且还都是大企业,不顾其经营状况, 一律疯涨, 非常罕见.泡沫一定存在

但是文章最后也说了, 泡沫似乎不会迅速崩溃,因为目前大家信心都无比之好, 最多也就预计涨幅变小, 觉得年内不会有跌势.这样的信心必然能在推手小时之后仍然维持一段时间的虚高.

我只概述一下, 河里高手出来评论吧