主题：【原创】运七与中国的航空发展之路 -- 大厨

进入21世纪后，在世界民航界刮起了低成本航空公司（LCC, LOW COST CARRIER )的潮流，许多新组建的LCC依靠成熟的机型，务实的航线选择，标准的操作模式，减少浪费和消耗来降低成本，一时颇为红火。在其逼人的发展势头下，一些大型航空公司也不顾评论家在理论上的分歧，纷纷开始或者准备筹建自己的LCC。

这股风，准确地说，是这个名词，借着全球化的浪潮，理所当然也刮到了中国。此时，中国政府正在逐渐放松对民营资本或外国资本投资民航业的管制，降低介入门槛以鼓励多元化的民航发展道路，于是，本地发了财的土财主，海外淘了金的小富翁，纷纷开始动作，一时之间，居然颇有几家向CAAC递交了申请并且有四五家获得了批准，还在酝酿当中的为数也不少。

以个人的意见，运作LCC，最紧要的条件当是资源的本土化，这里的资源当然就是飞机,以及相关的技术，备件，修理，维护的能力，还有成熟的员工。而就波音，空客等主流国外机型来说，其中的一些问题，还不是目前的中国所能够轻松解决的，在某些方面，远远不如澳大利亚，日本，甚至新加坡，比起欧洲或者美国来就更差得远了。这样一来，其成本受很多条件的制约和限制，压缩空间非常有限，很难做到真正意义上的低成本。比如FAA规范，是目前广泛被全球接受的一个规范，但同时，也是一个最大的技术壁垒。想理解这一点，就去想一想从狼嘴里夺肉，还别说是狼，我小时候养狼狗，当它吃东西时你逗它，它都会从喉咙里发出低沉的声音，作个威胁的动作，这叫护食，得，又扯远了。－－如果不是技术壁垒，欧洲也不会另起炉灶搞自己的JAA 了，当然，从另一方面，这JAA和FAA对于技术上的后来者、追赶者来说，不过是一丘的豹。

在这种情况下，选择国产飞机似乎是顺理成章的答案，那新舟60就是星宿老怪，众望所归了。然而，又是然而，答案是：B737-900, A320。

当时的感觉就一个字：我的天。不对，这是三个字了。这－－，有没有搞错，三两架飞机，崭新的737, 320，就那几千万人民币的投资，打个水漂都够戗。员工，是挖来的，成本不会低；飞机，是新的，成本低不了；销售网络，是新建的，能卖多少票不知道，花钱是大大的。所有所有的这些，绝对不是减少一份两份餐食就能解决的。

直到过了些时候，才逐渐认识到，这些所谓的LCC，这些LCC的投资者，是有很机敏的商业头脑，很深邃的投资意识的，可惜，不是用在发展民用航空事业上，更不是用在发展航空工业上。

那么，新舟60，它的出路究竟在哪里？

写下这一部分时候颇为犹豫，做了很大幅度的修改，仍感觉言辞有些尖锐，有些问题恐怕还要继续看发展。

花之。

这里还有个坑留着呢，一方面是最近比较忙，另一方面是跟一些朋友有意识地讨论过之后，感觉还需要再补充些资料才好继续。不过这里刚巧有一篇关于印度LCC的文章，出自ORIENT AVIATION, VOL.13, OCT, 2005,摘录下来供大家参考，对国内的情况也又不少借鉴意义，也算偷个懒，填两锹土。

题目：Air Deccan, an LCC to the core, by Tom Ballantyne

India's first low-cost carrier, Air Deccan, has just celebrated its second birthday, . But unlike its local rivals, the airline will remain focused on the country's enormous domestic market and resist the temptation to spread its wings internationally.

-----Air Deccan started off with one ATR turboprop on one route and the launch was inauspicious. On the inaugural flight, an engine caught fire before it got off the ground.

注：TURPROP指涡轮螺旋桨飞机，刚古狗了一下，这里是指ATR42，国内新疆有5架72，据说亏损很严重。

It turned out to be a minor hiccup. By the end of this year, Air Deccan will be flying a fleet of 19 ATRs and 11 A320s, operating 174 flights a day, linking more than 35 airports. It has ordered 32 more ATRs and 30 A320s.

-----( Captain Gopinath, managing director, Air Deccan ) , the 52 year old former Indian Army aviation captain explained:" Europe has close to 40,000 flights a day for one quarter of our population and the U.S has even more. If America had our population or if we had their economy, you would need 160,000 flights per day.

If we take 1% of it as the potential, you would need 1,600 flights a day straight away." he said. The domestic market is approaching 19 million passengers annually. Five million more a year are expected, which will make around 50 million by 2010.

Capt. Fopinath will not divulge financial details about Air Deccan, but said the airline is making a profit. With per kilometer, seat costs on its Airbus fleet at around $0.04 and at $0.08 on the ATRs, the airline turned over $100 million in its first year and expecteds sales of $230 million in its second.

------Unlike many LCC start-ups, he did not opt to buy jets and link big cities. His plan was simple. Firstly, link up the small airports using ATRs and connect them to India's major cities, the "Metros".

Then buy jets and gradually grow the network to include both small towns and major centers..

"I come from a village where farmers used home-made tooth powder and a stick to clean their teeth. Today, compannies like Samsung and LG and motoring companies like Hyundai and Honda are talking about a population explosion of 400 to 500 million middle-class and lower middle-class people--it's the other India. It crossed my mind nobody was looking at this sector as a source of air ticket sales," he said.

Small towns and villages throughout the country had no connectivity, " One day I asked one of my charter pilots to list all the airports we had in India, big and small. I discovered we had 400 airports that were "unused", some going back to World War II. Some were big enough to take Boeings, other s only suitable for turpoprops," he said.

His business plan banked on the fact that India had changed. " There is a new enthusiasm, a new self-confidence in the coutry. India has arrived as a major world economy," said Capt. Gopinath.

----Critics warned Capt. Gopinath three reasons would prevent his airline from being a success: India was an over-regulated market, airports were a nightmare and there was insufficient internet penetration.

"I knew in my bones that if you could creat an airline model in the India continent for the Indian people it was possible to overcome there obstacles. For me the dream was so powerful. The vision was to go to small towns and make it possible for middle-class and lower middle-class Indians to fly , to creat a business model and business strategy that is sustainable for 40 to 50 years."

评论：很赞赏他的lower middle class的观点，目前国内商家的眼睛，不光是民航领域，都集中在所谓middle class, 甚至所谓“成功人士”， 这刚刚富裕起来，有了一点，又不是很多消费能力的lower middle可能还真不被看上眼。

----" We are averaging 85% occupancy on our ATRs and 90% on our Airbus."

As India's airline market continues to boom and the country liberalises its air routes, the airline boss has no ambitions to spread the carrier's wings overseas. " We are very clearly focused on domestic services because the domestic market is so huge and there are so many airports still unconnected."

评论：中国的情况何其相似！

And Air Deccan is competing successfully with the railway, the nation's most common means of transport. " Between Bombay and Delhi you have to wait 45 to 60 days before you can get an air-contioned second class berth on the train. All our tickets are below first class prices and a large number of our seats are below the air-conditioned second class price," he said.

评论：看来这印度的火车问题还真不小。得感谢我们的铁路这些年的进步。

"We have 20 million peopel travelling by train in India every day and there are only 16 million people travelling by air in a year. If you transfer 5% of the train passengers , it's another million air traveller. We are very closedly focused on "mining" the bottom part of the pyramid.

One thing he will not do is spend money on frills. " We are not going to pay Singapore Airlines to come and groom our air hostesses to do a better job in service delivery. It's not that its not important, but we are very clearly focused on price. If you do anything to increase price it will "undermine" the brand as a LCC. We are not embarrassed about it. We are very proud of the fact that we can give wings to millions of Indians who could never fly before."

评论: 这位印度老板就差用中文喊出“为人们服务”了。

----忽然发现这内容称原创不合适，不过为了这一系列的统一，就原谅自己这一次了，毕竟也花了不少时间一字一句敲进去的。

苦, 八十年代末九十年代初飞机票又难买, 要是去小地方进去了可能出不来.

运营者只要取得所在国民航当局的认可，取得运营资格，并且保持其资格持续有效，其安全指标就认为是合格的。当然对国际航线还需要双边协议认可或者单独认可。

国内民航主要是在90年代初开始快速发展，您那时候刚好没赶上，辛苦了。

现在又是一轮发展高潮，可是在购买干线飞机热潮之后，是基本已经要死掉的通用航空市场，和半死不活的支线航空市场，如果不解决这些问题，恐怕这就是最短的那块木头板儿。

找到合适的发展路子了.

人家安24可是60年代初水平的飞机，过了20年，仿造出来的还比人家重一吨。