主题：和平与战争 -- 唵啊吽

但是，基本事实要搞清楚。今天世界只要中国不是经济危机。日本是经济危机，而且安倍和内阁拜鬼，是极端民族主义。

美国是经济危机，而且，美国现在民族主义情绪很强烈。

即经济危机程度，中国不如美日。民族主义情绪，也是中国不如美日。前几天报道一个美国人修车用国旗垫背，被雇主开除。

所以，步德日二战老路的是日本。这点要看清楚。按照水桶效应，最先开枪的很可能是日本，经济危机比中美都利害，民族主义情绪，尤其是首相和内阁的民族主义情绪，掌握战争开战权的人的民族主义情绪，他们很可能走战争的路以图摆脱经济危机。

我只能从媒体中获知。这个国家对我来说是个迷。希望以后有机会去生活一段时间。

目前我在美国工作生活。就我在美国了解的情况来说，我还真没发觉这场危机对平民百姓的生活造成多大的影响。这应该归功于社会制度的完善合理。现在美国的经济复苏很快。回头看，2008年的美债危机很有点阴谋论的味道。有人说是美国主动刺破泡沫。在我看来，即便不是主动刺破，也绝没有刻意维护泡沫。

美国在2008年之所以放任泡沫破灭，从美国国内经济来说是为了调整结构，以迎接新一轮的科技产业革命。从这点上来看，美国的政治精英对国家的掌控是值得敬佩的。当我们中国人不屑地说美国是财团或资本控制的时候，请再思考一下（现在有很多人对事物的认识模式化，既浅薄又庸俗）。这一点有很多可以展开说的，但水平有限，时间也有限，还是留给牛人去评论吧。

从国际上来讲，我认为美国的决策层应该对危机的路线图有较清晰的掌控。现实的结果是，美国率先从危机中走出。日本已经、正在，欧洲马上要实行QE。而中国则陷入了巨大的资产泡沫，国民经济和社会政治被泡沫绑架。中国目前不得不小心地维护不让泡沫破灭（4万亿后，实际上中国已经打光了QE这张牌）。结合中国人口结构的改变，我很担心中国可能就此错过了产业升级的历史机遇。这个机遇是过去170几年中国无数的苦难和奋斗争取来的。我对这一认识并没有把握。历史会给出答案。

日本的利益，我感觉是和美国的利益在现阶段不谋而合的。日元大幅度贬值宽松其实和欧元区是一个道理。美国也希望这两个经济体能在现有的产业结构中挣扎生存，不要在新技术产业对美国造成太大的压力，而同时压制中国的产业升级。因为中国产业升级过程中主要的竞争对手是日本，韩国和德国。

可以说美日目前在经济竞争中处于非常有利的位置。而中国却要面对自己内部严重的政治和经济危机。中国现有的资产泡沫和虚高的人民币汇率给国内的权贵阶层以最大化的利益。而这一阶层目前掌控国家的经济金融政策。我的观察是这一阶层把自身的利益凌驾在民族和国家利益之上（这一点极其无耻，但同时又是中国的政治结构所决定的）。因此，在今后几年中中国有可能出现较大的经济危机。至于是什么时候，这要看全中国的资源还有多少可用于博弈的。中国政府无疑是目前世界上掌控资源最多的政府。但就像我在另外的一个帖子说的，别的国家赌钱，中国是在赌命。

基于这些考虑，以及习李上台后的种种措施，我以为我们需要警惕中国民族主义的威胁。说到美国的民族主义，我的体会是美国主流的思想是爱国，敬佩为国服务的军人。（插一小例：有一次下飞机时，机长说机上有几名现役军人，希望其他乘客让这些军人先下机。当这几个军人起立走向机舱口时，全体乘客和机务人员为他们鼓掌。）至于对政府，广大人民一贯持批评态度。

美国广大的受教育民众从小被教育要独立思考，珍惜自由和尊重生命。很难想像这样的国家会有失去理智的民族主义。更何况，现今的美国是世界民族的熔炉。各民族还在不断地融合过程中，很难产生高度统一的民族思想。这不同于二战前的美国，日本，德国，也有别于现今的中国。很遗憾地说，目前很大一部分中国人对人类文明的认识，对科学和民主的理解可能没有比54运动时有多大的提高。产生义和团和红卫兵的土壤并没有发生多大的变化。因此，我很悲观。另，我们现在的最高领导人的世界观是在文化大革命中形成的。这一点兄台有无察觉？

很高兴有机会和您交流。班门弄斧，见笑！

first of all, I know my posts are hard to understand, kind of my notes of my own.

1.

again as a disclaimer, as said before, social science is hard, and I don't really know.

I have been fairly "negative" on TG in almost all my posts, still I would think that, like any political elite of any other countries, TG as china's only social elite(kind of), has been trying to work for the best of Chinese 民族和国家利益, whether they have accomplished that objective is a different discussion;

also, how do you define "Chinese 民族和国家利益" is a total different discussion as well.

what is my logic?

I try the most likely scenario or "most conservative" assumption: that TG is fundamentally not different from US elite, in terms of working for the best 民族和国家利益;

particularly, Chinese nation is such a huge "sample", and to say it is fundamentally different from other major nations, it is just too "risky", in terms of claiming that Chinese elite "这一阶层把自身的利益凌驾在民族和国家利益之上", and there is no other elite in china other than TG, as "sad" as it has been.

2.

other than that part, I basically agree with your other points in your post, almost all of them;

3.

because TG and US elite are all working for the best 利益 of 民族和国家 of their own, more than likely they will work out some kind of deals between the two, as opposed to going confrontational, rationality likely dominates;

and fundamentally, I also agree that TG 代表落后生产关系, globally, and TG has to unwind its huge shorting positions against almost the entire world;

It looks like that some part(%?) of TG is going that way, trying to normalize with US led world of capitalism.

4.

now, a huge part(%?) of TG would disagree with the statement that TGchina "代表落后的生产关系", and almost "majority" of Chinese people would be against that statement, for whatever reasons, most likely because of "the Chinese culture"

and strangely enough, that "Chinese culture" with a "落后的生产关系"=gives Chinese society a strong "度量结构" in our current 广义相对论 type world, vs Europe's lack of any "度量结构" in their world, and US is still holding strong to their largely "working well but much more diverse "度量结构".

that is kind of why I put "度量结构" as my first post in commenting your post.

and as we know, in social science, a nation's "度量结构" is largely the matter of that nation only, and for a nation of 1.5B people, and for whatever reasons (including TG's brainwashing, and most likely Chinese culture), Chinese society can largely agree on an unifying and almost a single 社会经济政治"度量结构", and they largely supports TG as a 中央极权, and that "strange thing" itself is a strong source of "china model"'s super power, which almost killed white's little brain(:).

and that "china model" power still has potential.

5.

now, from US(and white world) point of view (and it is very hard for them to understand tgchina), TG "china model" is noting but a fundamentally 黄祸 type "落后的生产关系", kind of why US now is containing TGchina, or even trying 政权更替 game if US figures out a way to do it(very difficult)

now, "objectively" speaking, other than "GDP 温度", what tgchina has contributed into humanity's "innovation and growth" system objective?

not much at all.

on the other hand, one could argue that compared to Indian, tgchina have been doing a lot of better economically.

so, how "落后" is tgchina 的生产关系? it is in itself a "social science"

6.

so, the global human system basically got a huge elephant "Tgchina" into its increasingly crowded house, and it is a challenge for everybody, kind of TGchina as a huge 梯度 popping out inside the system, stressing everybody out, compressing system's 自由度 to the possibly "dangerous" level.

and even "worse", because TG thinks it really 代表 Chinese 民族和国家利益, and majority of Chinese people kind of supports TG, making that challenge even "worse" to the global system.

7.

and Uncle Sam should feel blessed that TGchina did not grab the golden opportunity of 中华邦联 of 新加坡 and TW, a nightmare for US-centered white world.

and that also tells you that Chinese nation is not an 攻击 type nation/civilization, unlikely to change even in future when tgchina grows even stronger.

and "luckily" for the world, tgchina may have topped out anyway in terms of its "china model" potential.

8.

and I am glad to know that people like you start discussing topic like this.

and kind of why I posted

changshou: "时空中 度量结构（距离）的定义" here under this topic, borrowing some methodology from the most advanced science of humanity as we know.

and as "great" as GR is in a GR 时空, even a regional 度量结构 is challenging, 引力场量子化 is still a day dream: as a result, we basically don't really know "what is information" and "how information is transmitted" in a GR 时空.

and how about a social GR world of global scale?

much more challenging.

however, "luckily" for the world, the elephant in the room is tgchina, a historically very "善良" nation as we all know.

for that reason alone, I don't see any war risk in the foreseeable future, not at all.

economic war of various kinds are more likely, which as a peaceful "model competition" is a good thing, and in a way, it is really time for Uncle Sam to wake up as well: if nothing else, its own white trash population growth is almost getting out of control, period.

信息量很大，知识点很多。容我慢慢消化。

tgchina and US in terms of 社会政治经济"度量结构", a source of conflicts of all kinds.

in a brief: tgchina=半封建 equipped with Marxism and white technology, not so much science yet, and chinese will pick up science part as well, a very smart people;

US: it never really understands Marxism (US really needs to understand it, although almost impossible, and US needs to understand Chinese culture further), and most importantly, it needs to stop the horrible growth of its white trash population.

incidentally, as we all know, how strong this 中国心"度量结构" has been planted deeply in our brain, for almost all of us, even we have been here in US for X years, and almost regardless of where and when we go, kind of one reason why MSFT CEO (and quite a few sp500 ceo) are Indians, not Chinese(:).

thanks for your post, I have been waiting for that kind of post to yell out my 5 cents(:).

等我的砖，好扔您的玉，呵呵

您的论述，说实话，是从我未曾考虑过的角度出发。从不同的角度思考问题是大有益处的。

关于上一个问题，“这一阶层把自身的利益凌驾在民族和国家利益之上"。我记得当初东南亚经济危机后，有人质疑为什么印度尼西亚在美元开始强势上涨后依然维持高货币汇率以至于后来暴跌，答案是政治金融权贵手中的本国货币还没有来得及换成外币。。。

我很想听听您对人民币汇率的看法。

过去还有中国跟广大第三世界国家没有发展起来，资本主义发展没有到达极限，客观条件不存在的前提下，中苏所建立的社会形态都只是资本主义一种衍生，跟共产主义差远了。

网上有一张对美国核打击的目标图，分为主动和反击两种方案，各需要2000枚/500枚核弹头。

即使是核捆绑方案，也应该对每个核国家都照顾到，才能确保达到核捆绑的目的。

考虑更丧心病狂的方案，再把地球上每个核反应堆安排一枚小当量弹头（不能用大当量弹头完全蒸发消毒），总计1000枚以内应该足够了。

I will write a little bit more later, but for now, the following is roughly my "line of logic";

but please don't use 您, I am not really a "fan" of Chinese culture, because there is no physics there, not at all(:).

1.

in a country of 1.5B people, an unifying and almost a single 中国心"度量结构" (in terms of 社会政治经济) coupled with a super effective 中央集权 largely representing and working very hard( and having fun as well(:)) for Chinese 民族和国家利益=the nature of "Chinese model"

this is basically a 物理学上的奇迹, in terms of 广义相对论/GR, and because of that 物理学上的奇迹, "Chinese model" is for china only.

GR tells you that even a regional unifying "度量结构" is a very hard "thing".

引力波=4偶極子, very weak to 观测, and in general, N偶極子 moment=weaker as N increases, kind of "反N方".

and Chinese nation of 1.5N 偶極子, still 正步向前走 working hard, and all smiling watching CCTV 春晚, under TG's commandership of military style?

omg(:), but for a human system of social biology nature, that kind of system if implemented globally=no innovation, no growth, no science and technology progress as we know.

and humanity may have to go back to china's beautiful Qing or Tang dynasty with no IPhone no nothing? give me a break please(:).

that is the fundamental weakness of "china model".

kind of like 包办婚姻, however 实惠 it may be, from a system point of view, biology promotes marriage outside of family or 包办婚姻, so system can find the source of diversity, innovation, and growth, and a dissipative system is always dying for "diversity, innovation, and growth", almost at any cost.

that is a very hard concept for Chinese nation to comprehend, partially due to the lack of science such as physics in Chinese nation's "mind model", "trapped" in a social environment of almost 近亲繁殖 for 5 k years.

爱因斯坦"电梯"(:).

kind of why I have been posting heavily on physics(:).

2.

compared to US model, the "Chinese model" fundamentally represents a 落后的生产关系, because it does not really provide any innovation and "real and value added" growth, the two things global social economic system has been dying for, not to mention that tgchina has never really contributed to the progress of science and technology of humanity, whatsoever, so far at least.

kind of why I have been saying that tgchina is largely a "super" but local economic power, it is not a leadership power, globally.

3.

however, the 物理学上的奇迹 side of "china model" does create GDP 7% growth 奇迹, vs 欧洲心"度量结构" (in terms of 社会政治经济) of 民粹主义 and EU's 0 gdp growth rate.

"hullo" 民粹主义 post described EU well, and I used live in Europe for a while, still got many friends there.

now vs, EURO, 人民币汇率 not 虚高 at all,严重低估 more likely, in terms of GDP"温度" or growth rate parity .

vs JPY, I don't know, not much knowledge and personal experiences about Japan at all.

and capital market can only see the future out a couple of years at most macro wise, or "5 years" at most, kind of discounting cash flows 5 years out, mostly at company level.

and capital market only cares about money, it likes tgchina's GDP 温度 of 7% growth rate, because there is almost no GDP 温度 elsewhere at all, such as in Europe.

and in that sense, and in terms of GDP 温度, one can argue that EU=落后的生产关系, no money no honey, period.

4.

the "Chinese model", although likely topped out already, it can still create GDP 温度 for a while (how long? hard to model), that is why I keep saying that tgchina will not run into a economic crisis in the foreseeable future, and capital market kind of sees china that way too, no hard landing or systematic crisis to come out of tgchina for the foreseeable future.

5.

"long term": tgchina to normalize with US led world of global capitalism, at least economically.

as I said, as smart as TG top has been, they have figured it out that for TG to do 人民币 "QE" or globalize 人民币 M2, tgchina has to go 私有化, 市场化. otherwise, TG cannot globalize its 人民币 "QE"/M2, and TG will only hurt itself in this global QE era of very slow economic growth.

6.

I think uncle sam understands tgchina up to this point, and uncle sam likely not going to let tgchina off the hook and unwind its position of shorting the entire world, without paying the world/system back some of the money tgchina "stolen" from the system, or in terms of 出来混总是要还的

as I said, so far and for the foreseeable future, uncle sam=sysadmin or market maker of the global system as we know.

7.

however, uncle sam's 政权更替 game is almost impossible to play it out in tgchina, and there is not much else uncle sam could do in terms of "disciplining" tgchina.

so, in that sense, tgchina and US all have to "dance with wolf", with each other.

and US TPP stuff, I have not studied it much. puma兄 had a post on it.

tgchina in a brief summary.

"中国心"=大一统 mind model, national pride, culture and language of sameness to the point of almost 近亲繁殖, built out into "gene" level over 5 k years;

"度量结构": TG basically and hugely successfully modernized china with Marxism social science and white technology, science part is still largely missing, although catching up impressively, but kind of textbook mode, not a 世界观/algo level at all.

as a result, outside of china, whites don't really understand Chinese, regardless of how fluent their 京片子 are, they just don't get it;

"朗道势垒" is just hard.

however, part(%?) of TG elite gets it, therefore 运动战, 鑹插战, WTO, post 911, internationally, and domestically, premier Zhu's 辽沈战役 of how many zillions of 国企 army?

物理学上的奇迹=GDP 奇迹=TG elite now among world elite level, financially, smart assholes, they basically crossed "朗道势垒", mostly leveraging TG's super 党组织 network and power, at elite level.

now, uncle sam: 美国心, 世界脑"度量结构", briefly:

1.

many sides of 美国心, "most" of American people

苹果心: sell your kidney to buy iPhone, but if without these guys, how does AAPL etc get its innovation product launch out of door, then scaling to global market overnight?

sports 心: unbelievable, and I still don't understand much, but sports may nurture risk taking, diversity, challenging, team work, 阿Q high, and why not(:), etc;

happy 心: supposedly a huge % of Americans don't have > a few thousand in their bank account, still, they want to feel good, feel happy, what ever financial cost of it may be=US consumer army of craziness, 冲刺热力学极限, omg, live monte carlo simulation, unmatched globally.

church 心: you would be surprised, as a result of church brainwashing, 美国心=largely honest, straight forward, "honor" your contracts, baby(:).

you can't pay your house loan, you are thrown out, vs Europe: omg, a socialist society of zero growth, 人民群众当家作主, and for real, market as a system is pretty much dead there;

as a note: atop 2008 financial crisis, many American families live in their cars on side walk of street, no police there, and TV broadcast 雷锋 helper story everyday.

all these 美国心=a 繁荣昌盛生物圈 of social economic system to nourish 24/7 innovation of modern economy, for humanity to struggle into the next phase of capitalism, in its relentless search of innovation and growth: as a dissipative system, you grow or die.

as humanity of the only civilization in the universe: can we afford slowing down innovation and growth at all?

therefore, innovation and growth always enjoy sky high premium rewarded by global capital market, at cost of discounting everything else, and those TGchina 地道战民兵战 product in particular, now almost all of them had excessive capacity built out by TGchina's 民科工科党校 joint venture produced "度量结构"/ALGO running "china model".

the downside: most American kids are becoming white trash at an almost unstoppable speed, so system automatically imports tons of indian kids, Chinese kids, east European kids, middle east kids, etc.

by the way, I watched a spelling and national geography national test of US recently, those Indian kids beat Chinese kids like cutting a piece of cake, and white kids get beaten up by everybody, almost (:).

2.

US local government: tons of 干部 trash

almost a disaster, quite bit of them (%?)

a friend's company got some sales tax issues, and the company has been dealing with California state government of various 干部 of various department for >2 years, still working on paper work flow, omg(:)

uncle sam is just lucky: why bother with all these BS local government and the so-called TG style infrastructure building out?

we are migrating into information, intelligence and possibly quasi quantum physics base mode of next phase of industrial production, anyway.

in that sense, I kind of agree with republicans: cut the damned government budget to zero, market can always do better.

with saved budget, helping those white trash buy more iPhone(:), and everybody is happy.

3.

世界脑

we kind of know.

4.

"度量结构": this is the tricky part

in terms of GR, as said, even a regional unifying "度量结构" is a very hard thing, so it is really hard to model and articulate US "度量结构" in terms of 社会政治经济.

kind of why I suggest uncle sam's political team to start 认真学习马列, at least 知己知彼, and it has to be TG's version 马列, for real, but they will never get it.

so forget about that, and tgchina will be likely not a threat to US "度量结构" model anyway, tgchina as a "度量结构" challenge is most likely a head fake.

so, US based global capital market kind of functions as a dynamic "度量结构", obviously it comes very expensively, with tons of issues including corruption etc, and almost fell apart during 2008 相对论 level system stressing out, partially because of "china model" disruption to the global social economic system.

outside of capital market: uncle sam's CIA "zero dark" team, 五角大楼, white house war room: these guys 身经百战, with AI and all kinds of toys helping them out, they largely do their jobs well.

as long as 美国心, 世界脑 etc those major pieces of system all work well, and then the system will work well, dynamically producing "度量结构", and broadcast it out to the world, for a fee, often very expensive, and those "度量结构"ALGOs brainwashing worldwide population, so they consumer SP500 products, use their services, buy the stocks, enjoy dividends, send their kids to USA for American dreams.

5.

yes, tgchina is trying getting into this "度量结构" business, but how? starting with chairman X's china dream BS?

as I said, tgchina's "度量结构" has been super powerful, but it only works in mainland china, now at an increasingly high maintenance cost.

in the world of "度量结构"战争, tgchina's 战略缓冲盘子 has been actually shrinking, even within mainland china itself, because fundamentally, tgchina's "度量结构" is a 落后的"度量结构", no matter how do you cut it, it is still a 落后的"度量结构", however powerful and GDP-productive and national "ego-oriented" it may be.

in today's open world, there can be only one "度量结构", and winners taking all.

that is why I keep saying that Tgchina has largely topped out, as a leadership model for humanity at global level, in terms of 科学技术 (add information there) 作为第一生产力.

this is because TGchina cannot produce a world class "度量结构", with which global social economic system produces, exchanges and consumes information.

may be one day, and most likely it will be china to challenge Uncle Sam as a "度量结构" producer again, and uncle sam should be challenged for the benefit of system as a whole.

that day if it ever comes, is still long long time away.

do we have any major holes in this "line of logic"?

one cannot really compare TG top with 印度尼西亚政治金融权贵;

if one wants to compare TG with somebody, compare TG to Putin group;

for major powers of world, such as china and Russia, it is much less risky ( in terms of setting up fairly reasonable assumptions for your model) and much more logical to assume that their political elite (yes, %=?, challenging) works with their full heart and brain for their 民族和国家利益. with that, we analyze their systems, assuming their sysadmin all come to work normally(:), like their MD counter parties.

and I am talking about the elite as a group.

again, the assumptions are assumptions;

with my assumptions, I try to see which system can produce best quality information for market to discount, and again assuming Tgchina and USA all function well as systems.

with that we have probably an another more easily accepted assumption: today's world wide economy is largely managed by global capital market, which is basically a information discounting system.

now, the fundamental weakness of TGchina model is not about elite's heart and mind, or about troops, despite of all the worsening corruption issues.

1.

some of the fatal issues with Tgchina model:

lack of a "full blown" 原教旨资本主义 modeled 私有制, legal system or even culture system, and right now, only USA has that kind of 原教旨资本主义, unmatched globally.

only such a system can produce qualified information for the capital market to price all economic activities/risks, and to enforce market's function as well.

Jpy and EU never come out of its deflation trap, partially because they are almost like tgchina, its banking system cannot really chase those 债务人 into hell, the way USA did during 2008, of course, US banks got FED to cover their ass as well.

still USA banks deleverage best, and now they are working out the best, banking industry is a super important pillar of US system as a whole.

2.

EU has similar fatal issues like that of TGchina

tg's banks 保护贪官, jpy banks 保护 networks, and EU banks 保护人民群众, and as a result, all the information flow between those banks and bank customers are all garbage/fake to some extent, etc;

now, the advantage of TGchina's "度量结构"=tgchina 热情高万丈 all over the country, from leadership to the troops, and 高热量=GDP 7%, although producing tons of garbage and corruptions.

vs Europe 人民群众热情=zero, almost, if you go and work in Europe, you can feel that;

jpy: 人民群众 are becoming too old?

but tgchina's "度量结构" built atop Chinese 权贵资本主义 with a communist twist=garbage in and garbage out, taking advantage by many 权贵 themselves for their corruption.

still "这一阶层把自身的利益凌驾在民族和国家利益之上" is debatable, and I am not going to argue against you anymore on that point(:).

anyway, what I try to say is that even assuming TG top has good heart and smart brains and work hard for their 民族和国家利益, the system is still not working, in terms of information producting and processing, compared to USA.

so, Tgchina's model problem is a systematic issue, not so much of the issue of "TG top 阶层把自身的利益凌驾在民族和国家利益之上", assuming that is the case.

and to make things worse, even TG top wants to have a 原教旨资本主义 system matching that of USA, it is not going to work out with their troops brainwashed by TG themselves with 毛 religion for decades, atop 5k years of Chinese culture.

so, whatever TG 改革 does, TG's 资本主义 system is likely going to be a fake one.

3.

but EU's 资本主义 is becoming even a worse fake, and TG top will smile from ear to ear, why?

let US=冠军, and we will work for 亚军, and with our TGchina model, we may even become 0.6 冠军 (:);

and that is a very realistic scenario.

this is kind of why TG top is not really panicking at all, in terms of economic growth. yes, they are worried.

I have written on this a few time, and in GR 时空, we got an "information problem" (:).

kind of why I have posted extensively on brains, information related physics.

so, the bottom line: US's strength is largely with its 原教旨资本主义 system, a full blown information producing and processing system, and without USA 度量结构, global capital market will not function at all;

that is one fundamental power of USD as a global reserve currency or information currency.

any other currency will have much less information content or power. period.

below that top tier of USA 度量结构, TG 土八路's "度量结构" may in future work out better than EU, however ugly TG 土八路's "度量结构" may look like. 臭豆腐实惠.

and I don't know much about JPY.

because of that, Uncle Sam and Tgchina are more likely to work out deals in making money.

remember 汪洋's "marriage" proposal?

TG will propose to marry Uncle Sam again when Hillary comes into white house.

so, basically, no military war, period; and yes, you can transfer and diversify your capital into USA, but chairman X is issuing hot party tickets for 私有化国产, so if you are smart, kiss his ass, and work for him in china, and then you will have even more financial wealth to be allocated globally(:).

4.

information challenge

and I have been posting about this all the time, it is not about that TGchina will fall apart economically, it is not about TG not going to reform, it is about TG's 臭豆腐实惠 and kind of 黑手党 "度量结构": as a nation, you cannot attract global brain power with that kind of 臭豆腐实惠 and 黑手党 made "度量结构", and china may be losing even more its own brain power to US because of that, 劣币驱逐良币;

but TG top may fxxk back: I don't care, I know how to play 人海战术 (:).

kind of why I have been saying, that after all the fires and smokes, USA and Tgchina "打个平手" is a very likely outcome, "long term", and that may be actually very good for global economy.

5.

if the above scenario is what TG's strategic planning about, X will continue to 打左灯向右拐;

打左灯 including all the hooplas of showing strength against USA, and even now all his those 亮肌肉 moves are fading away;

向右拐: his 私有化国产 move, real and huge, omg, anybody not impressed?

and have any Chinese 老百姓 made any fuss over that 私有化国产 move at all?

whatever TG does=good for Chinese 民族和国家利益, the core ALGO of TGchina "度量结构", which is still solidly running in the "genes" of almost every Chinese's brain, wherever they may be.

seeing that, Uncle Sam: chairman X, we want to do more business with you(:).

I generally like authors with some kind of physics, science, or engineering background when they write about "social science" of TGchina, Uncle Sam

the following information is all public, I don't have any private contacts with them, not really even commenting each others post much. I just read their posts.

again, this is not personal, and I would think that they don't really care either.

1.

汉密尔顿ABC, he articulated about US fed model very well, I don't have the link, but posted about him a few times.

2.

陈王奋起挥黄钺, he said he had a physics major, works in semi conductor industry. He posts extensively, and I don't care whom he writes for (if,(:)), but he articulated well about TG's "china model";

3.

hullo, he said he knows Chinese farmers well, and he articulates white's 民粹主义 very well, kind of where EU is trapped now.

汉密尔顿ABC has not posted much, I hope he comes back;

陈王奋起挥黄钺 posts extensively, I only read his posts on important subjects of "政治局" level (:).

I disagree with him on many USA related subjects.

hullo posts extensively too, I read his posts on Chinese farmers, 民粹主义, but I am not really a fan of his Chinese culture and 哲学, Chinese "national pride/ego" stuff.

overall, those 3 authors described Tgchina fairly well, and I largely agree with them.

and if I may comment further, for 陈王奋起挥黄钺, hullo, there are some risk of being contained inside 爱因斯坦电梯 made by TG for the current Chinese generations.

but, if 愿打愿挨, then who cares(:)?

and although I think that I have been fairly "objective", myself may well be contained inside 爱因斯坦电梯 made by "white", we all in some kind of 爱因斯坦电梯, one way or another. the trick is to jump from one to another, and never stay inside one 爱因斯坦电梯 for too long, to avoid 被脑残.

and in a way, I do think most of whites never really understand TG's "china model".

luckily for them, they may never really need to, for most of them.

TG's "china model", however powerful it may be, is a local one, working the best in china, and china only.

still, with TG "china model" 爱因斯坦电梯 perspective and experiences, it would help anyone to understand the "social science" of white better, a lot of better.

4.

now, I hope more people like you (science working background, in US/west) come here and talk about "social science" of TGchina, Uncle Sam.

we use to have a quite few, now they are all gone, 被土八路打跑了(:), 土八路 offers some good view points too, not that terrible(:).

now, as Chinese, for whatever reason, we care about tgchina's "china model", which carries a higher risk of 被脑残, this "china model" is highly complicated for whatever reasons.

and I would advise that anybody, unless you really have to, you should generally stay away from reading about it, out of any media, Chinese or foreign. Tons of 脑残热辐射 BS (:).

as said before, there may be a reason for American public's craziness for sports, to avoid 脑残热辐射 BS social sciences coming from everywhere.

and in a way it makes sense, unless you are in this business, why should you care about tg's "china model"?

Chinese gene in the brain(:)?

I know that level of physics and math are beyond the reach of many, except for their children in future, may be.

why physics and math?

防止被 TG 脑残, I really mean it(:).

as commander in chief of china, TG top can afford 人海战术, as an individual, nobody can afford it, period.

人民币对欧元也许没有高估，对加元也许也没有。但我认为对美元有很大的高估。而且我认为，今后人民币对美元贬值也许是个中长期的趋势。或者说美元对其他主要货币将有较长时间的增值。如果人民币较美元贬值，将可能对目前的国内政治经济有较大影响。当然，经济、金融问题往往和政治、国际关系密切交织，有无数的影响因素。

感谢你的推荐。

not only that, those Chinese masters/Phds, whereever they go, US and Europe, for whatever years, they still study TG "documents", writing reports, publish it on web, argue with TG's "enemies", all by themselves without paid.

爱因斯坦电梯 with 1.5B people inside, all singing "我們走在大路上"

basically a invisible Chinese 規範場, across time space of 5k years, all over the world,

how lucky red gen II is, as 廠長 of such a "奇迹"規範場.

omg(:)!