主题：和平与战争 -- 唵啊吽

I will write a little bit more later, but for now, the following is roughly my "line of logic";

but please don't use 您, I am not really a "fan" of Chinese culture, because there is no physics there, not at all(:).

1.

in a country of 1.5B people, an unifying and almost a single 中国心"度量结构" (in terms of 社会政治经济) coupled with a super effective 中央集权 largely representing and working very hard( and having fun as well(:)) for Chinese 民族和国家利益=the nature of "Chinese model"

this is basically a 物理学上的奇迹, in terms of 广义相对论/GR, and because of that 物理学上的奇迹, "Chinese model" is for china only.

GR tells you that even a regional unifying "度量结构" is a very hard "thing".

引力波=4偶極子, very weak to 观测, and in general, N偶極子 moment=weaker as N increases, kind of "反N方".

and Chinese nation of 1.5N 偶極子, still 正步向前走 working hard, and all smiling watching CCTV 春晚, under TG's commandership of military style?

omg(:), but for a human system of social biology nature, that kind of system if implemented globally=no innovation, no growth, no science and technology progress as we know.

and humanity may have to go back to china's beautiful Qing or Tang dynasty with no IPhone no nothing? give me a break please(:).

that is the fundamental weakness of "china model".

kind of like 包办婚姻, however 实惠 it may be, from a system point of view, biology promotes marriage outside of family or 包办婚姻, so system can find the source of diversity, innovation, and growth, and a dissipative system is always dying for "diversity, innovation, and growth", almost at any cost.

that is a very hard concept for Chinese nation to comprehend, partially due to the lack of science such as physics in Chinese nation's "mind model", "trapped" in a social environment of almost 近亲繁殖 for 5 k years.

爱因斯坦"电梯"(:).

kind of why I have been posting heavily on physics(:).

2.

compared to US model, the "Chinese model" fundamentally represents a 落后的生产关系, because it does not really provide any innovation and "real and value added" growth, the two things global social economic system has been dying for, not to mention that tgchina has never really contributed to the progress of science and technology of humanity, whatsoever, so far at least.

kind of why I have been saying that tgchina is largely a "super" but local economic power, it is not a leadership power, globally.

3.

however, the 物理学上的奇迹 side of "china model" does create GDP 7% growth 奇迹, vs 欧洲心"度量结构" (in terms of 社会政治经济) of 民粹主义 and EU's 0 gdp growth rate.

"hullo" 民粹主义 post described EU well, and I used live in Europe for a while, still got many friends there.

now vs, EURO, 人民币汇率 not 虚高 at all,严重低估 more likely, in terms of GDP"温度" or growth rate parity .

vs JPY, I don't know, not much knowledge and personal experiences about Japan at all.

and capital market can only see the future out a couple of years at most macro wise, or "5 years" at most, kind of discounting cash flows 5 years out, mostly at company level.

and capital market only cares about money, it likes tgchina's GDP 温度 of 7% growth rate, because there is almost no GDP 温度 elsewhere at all, such as in Europe.

and in that sense, and in terms of GDP 温度, one can argue that EU=落后的生产关系, no money no honey, period.

4.

the "Chinese model", although likely topped out already, it can still create GDP 温度 for a while (how long? hard to model), that is why I keep saying that tgchina will not run into a economic crisis in the foreseeable future, and capital market kind of sees china that way too, no hard landing or systematic crisis to come out of tgchina for the foreseeable future.

5.

"long term": tgchina to normalize with US led world of global capitalism, at least economically.

as I said, as smart as TG top has been, they have figured it out that for TG to do 人民币 "QE" or globalize 人民币 M2, tgchina has to go 私有化, 市场化. otherwise, TG cannot globalize its 人民币 "QE"/M2, and TG will only hurt itself in this global QE era of very slow economic growth.

6.

I think uncle sam understands tgchina up to this point, and uncle sam likely not going to let tgchina off the hook and unwind its position of shorting the entire world, without paying the world/system back some of the money tgchina "stolen" from the system, or in terms of 出来混总是要还的

as I said, so far and for the foreseeable future, uncle sam=sysadmin or market maker of the global system as we know.

7.

however, uncle sam's 政权更替 game is almost impossible to play it out in tgchina, and there is not much else uncle sam could do in terms of "disciplining" tgchina.

so, in that sense, tgchina and US all have to "dance with wolf", with each other.

and US TPP stuff, I have not studied it much. puma兄 had a post on it.