主题：银行的好日子结束了 -- zhuhit

欧洲垮了，我们要少40%的出口，等于我们也垮了，内需内需喊了几年了，好像也没起来，欧洲垮不垮也就是眼前的事情。现在就看欧洲人怎么处理了，我个人倒还是有点担心，因为从历史上来说，欧洲人比较擅长让自己垮台。

虽然从财务报表上看，平台债基本无法靠项目和公司自身产生足够的现金流，扣除其他应收款和土地之后的资产负债率也很高，（政府注入土地之后财务比率很好看，资产负债率和流动比率，甚至速动比率都无意义，现金比率又太差）。

另一方面，1）经过发改委一轮面谈，以及现在新发行的平台债都设置了提前还款条款，（最后5年每年还20%），说明国家还是有一定控制的。

2）政府对城投债违约的容忍度是0，如果违约，承销商就不要混了。（口头警告）

3）城投债都要公开披露，为了以后好借债，地方政府宁愿银行贷款展期，也不愿意出现城投债换不上的情况，主要是考虑自己在资本市场上的影响。

其他还有一些考虑，反正在中期内，城投债违约的可能性应该很小。

不知道教授怎么看啊。

hi，东西方阵营无法避免的存在信息不对称。gcd自认有深入草根的掌控力，西方则可能认为gcd只不过是另一只对内债务怪兽，迟早和Piigs国家一同下地狱。

纵观全球，主要大国都走在信用泛滥的潮头，看谁先葬身海底，谁能平稳上岸。

1. Most of those projects have poor oversight and more importantly, poor future cash flows. Some were rushed out during 2009.

2. During 2001-2007, China uses high growth and inflation to solve some past local debt deliquency problem. Nobody learns lessons and there is little institutional infrastructure to manage those local debts.

China will have to use inflation to solve those debt problems again. But without high growth, high inflation and monetary expansion becomes increasing destabilizing and difficult.

Wait and see. At certain moment, when the press have to tell you the truth, even I might be shocked by the scale of problem. Right now, I guess even the premier has no accurate data.

所以我早就建议搞“第二货币”(食品券，教育券)，跑赢通胀的国民平准基金。

我们还是回你那个小馆讨论吧？我看是时候了。

先赌第一把：希腊会不会退出？我认为必定退出欧元区，只是时间问题罢了。

Ben Bang Cai, but the website crashed, and I lost all my inputs. First time, input in Chinese. Very frustrated.

yes, Greece will be out.

1. Germany wants to reshape Euroland.

2. All financial system threat has been cleaned.

3. Germany wants to marginalize France if France chooses to oppose it.

4. Greeks are asking for a precedent that will destroy Germany's own fiscal system as well as banking system. Germany must impose fiscal rules first--take over sovereignty of PIGs (Ireland excluded) before allowing common bonds.

5. Greece is far away from Euro-heartland. It has limited economic link, except for once the banking system link with the Euroland. It can not block the transportation in Euroland (unlike the Niu XXX Quebecors who can break Canada into two unconnected pieces). Its threat is pretty empty.

German PM is an iron lady with tough will. Do not expect her to yield, even facing IMF/OECD or the whole world.

I expect further turmoil. I am shorting heavily.

ECB will not intervene very soon since it has used up its credibility in front of all of their Germanic board members. There must be a crisis first before ECB jumping in. Right now, we are far from a crisis.

Greeks are playing chickens against Germans. But they forget who is really tough daddy with all the money in control now.

Greeks are directing and playing a big Greek tragedy in front of the whole world, WITHOUT EVEN BEING CONSCIOUS OF IT. haha. smart Greeks have all fled Greece by now.

You may want to try the following browser add-ons (plug-ins) so that you won't lose what you input in the future.

"Textarea Cache" (for Firefox)

https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/textarea-cache/

"Lazarus 3" (Chrome, Safari and Firefox)

http://lazarus.interclue.com/download

希腊人不会是傻瓜吧？前一阵不是有民调，百分之七八十的人想要留在欧元区。退出欧元区对希腊绝对是一场大灾难，虽然德国人的损失也会很大。

在这场比谁先眨眼的游戏后，至少短期内双方会妥协一下？

德国是越来越强大了，但是如何使然呢，部分原因是德国一直依靠贸易盈余拉动发展，谁贸易赤字呢，是南部欧洲，他们有钱么，没那么多，怎么办，德国银行借钱，南欧借钱消费，有还钱的纪律和奋发图强么，没有，他们度假去了。德国银行为了继续拿顺差，就继续借钱，你说德国与南欧这对冤家，有没有德国的问题，德国也是只看眼前，积累债务，只不过是债权方。

要等到下一轮的希腊选举之后吗？万一希腊人服软，选出了一个服从德国要求的政府呢？

花上。

老太太这么强硬，最大州的选举都输了。最后德国必须妥协。这个过程会很糟糕。

土鳖也只不过和美欧每年10%财政赤字（3年）的操作相仿。更何况大部分是投到资产而不是消费掉了。