主题：【欧洲经济】五次加息后，英国房价近三个月内跌落 -- 西风陶陶

U.K. House-Price Index Slumps to Lowest in 12 Years, RICS Says

Nov. 16 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. house prices fell to the lowest in almost 12 years in the three months through October, according to an industry group index, adding to evidence that five interest-rate increases in a year have ended a property boom.

The seasonally adjusted net balance of property appraisers reporting an increase in house prices from a year ago, less those identifying a drop, fell to minus 41 percent from minus 29 in the September period, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors said. That's the lowest reading since December 1992.

House prices have doubled since 1999, underpinning growth in consumer spending and helping the U.K. record its longest spurt of growth in more than 200 years. A drop in property prices may damp household spending, which makes up more than two-thirds of the economy, and help curb economic growth, which slowed to 0.4 percent in the third quarter from 0.9 percent in the second.

``It's mainly a reflection of interest rates rising rapidly over the spring and summer, which had quite a bit of impact,'' said Milan Khatri, RICS's London-based head of economics, in an interview. ``There is quite a bit of uncertainty and speculation about the market crashing. If interest rates are on hold until next year it could give grounds for stability in the market.''

The Bank of England said in its latest economic growth and inflation forecasts on Nov. 10 that it assumes property prices will fall, the first time policy makers have built declines into their forecasts. A slowdown in the housing market is evident in ``virtually all the indicators,'' Governor Mervyn King said.

`Difficult Month'

Today's reading was 6 percentage points worse than the median estimate of 17 economists surveyed by Bloomberg on Nov. 12. It follows a report from HBOS Plc, the nation's biggest mortgage lender, which showed house prices fell 1.1 percent in October, the biggest drop in four years.

``October was a difficult month,'' said Maurice Wall, a surveyor with J.H. Palmer & Sons in Burnham-on-Sea, southwest England. ``Sales were well down on last year's figures. Sustained effort to persuade vendors to reduce prices resulted in a few new sales. There could be tough months ahead.''

Today's numbers may add to arguments for the Bank of England to delay any further increases in the benchmark interest rate, which has risen to 4.75 percent in five moves since last November. All 36 economists polled by Bloomberg on Nov. 5 said rates have peaked this year. Twenty expect an increase next year.

Futures Markets

Interest rate futures slid yesterday as some traders speculated the RICS numbers would disappoint. The three-month contract maturing in December of 2005 dropped to 4.77 percent from 4.81 percent yesterday. The contract peaked at 5.76 percent on June 14. The current three-month money market rate offered between banks was 4.89 percent.

The last time the index was so low, in 1992, Britain was immersed in a four-year housing market slump following a surge in official interest rates to 15 percent three years earlier. That decline in property values, accompanied by a surge in loan defaults and home repossessions, helped push the economy into its last recession.

In today's report, for which RICS received 369 contributions, the balance of surveyor's expectations for price movements over the coming three months held at minus 25 percent, the same as in September and the lowest since April 2003.

Lack of Interest

Lack of interest from buyers contributed to a 10 percent increase in the stock of unsold properties during the three-month period, and prices dropped in every area surveyed except Scotland. The biggest declines came in southern English regions, followed by the Midlands, RICS said. The number of completed sales fell 25 percent compared with the previous year.

The price balance in London was minus 33 percent, up slightly from the previous month's minus 35 percent. Expectations for prices in the capital over the coming three months recovered somewhat, as the balance pushed up to plus 3 percent from minus 23 percent.

To contact the reporter on this story:

Sam Fleming in London at [email protected].

To contact the editors responsible for this story:

Chris Kirkham at [email protected].

Heather Harris at [email protected].

Last Updated: November 15, 2004 19:30 EST

大概只涨了一次，而且中央明确表态支持房地产业，限制土地供应，这些是利好；但是上海有很多业主来自台湾，不知道台海局势会不会有影响。

大家伙扔砖。

当然,也有可能是故意拱出来的样板,让大伙先别慌.

大概也是国内加息影响房价不大的原因之一。海外一般人不贷人民币的款。说到涨幅，说个和尚的切身体会。一个多月前国内家人看上了一处台湾人抛出的二手房，算是在市区的不错地段，要价148万。正谈着呢，加息了。和尚按常理想，等等吧别急。不想过了两星期，人家还不干了，说不卖了。现在叫价170万。晕死！

目的也不同，决非通过一次0.27的加息是房价回落，其实质是尝试利率市场化，象征意义远远大于实际意义。幅度小应该是担心利率提升过快、过大而打击投资。国内的GDP增长完全是依靠投资拉动，而非消费。近来，市场普遍估计和预测一年内央行还将加息，通过两到三次加息使利率提高到6%的水平，估计到那时，房价应该会有比较明显的回落。

应该会一个个先后松绑,之后再逐步调整.估计到明年年中前焦点还是会转回到股市.经济政策本以稳健为首要,小幅逐步放宽的用意也是在于先克服心理障碍.

家庭年收入的多少倍啊？

主要是看银行的钱有多松动。上海白领们年收入不过十万，而手头有两投资房的不少，更加不要提那些有办法的人，手头几十套房子了。银行能不能借钱也跟利率没什么关系。

上海才是真正的冒险家的乐园。

很多白领的确买了好些房子收租。不过有个现象俺也有些觉得不妥，现在买进房子的，也有不少是小投资者跟风买进的。

现在说的不是自用住宅,而是投资置产型的,也就是有钱人买除了自己要住的之外的房子.这类的利息承受度大约便是房租的收入.

即使是房屋增值型投资,若考虑到等待增值时的”养房费”,也大约是与当地的与当地的屋房行情相当.利率提高当然有冲击,但是如果原本有空间或是可转转嫁到房屋租金的话,其实也还过得去.

上海,希望不会成为欲望贪婪的乐园.

以一般人的所得来说,三年前的房价就足以让大半的人叹气.

11月16日上海房地产交易的官方网站上海房地资源网即时滚动信息显示：15日上海市房地产网上成交均价首次突破万元关口，高达10031元／平方米。

由于从今年7月1日起，上海所有一手新房必须上网交易，二手房交易几乎不上网，所以这个数字基本可以认为是上海一手房的交易均价。

与天价相比，当日房产成交量只有749套。市场人士判断，上海房市可能进入无量空涨阶段。

上海房地资源网显示，15日，上海内环线以内（中心城区）一手房成交均价为12986．8元／平方米，内环线和中环线之间的一手房成交均价在9272．7元／平方米，中环线和外环线之间区域一手房均价也达到7163．1元／平方米，外环线以外的房价为5399．3元／平方米。整体统计，当日上海一手房网上交易均价达10031元／平方米，而此前一天还只有8712元／平方米。

自上月加息以来，上海网上房地产交易呈现出明显的两极背离现象：房屋价格，尤其是市区房价仍在稳中上涨，而交易量则明显下滑，日均成交套数一直徘徊在800套左右。

对于均价突破万元的天价房市，目前市场有两种解读：一种观点认为正常，因为高价房主要集中于高档社区、高档楼盘，与普通百姓关系不大，主力购买者为境外人士。他们主要关注一些高档成熟社区和别墅市场。眼下美元贬值和对未来人民币升值的预期，被认为是海外购房团进入上海房市，购房作为投资品的主要原因。

对万元房价的另一种解读是，上海房地产市场很可能正在进入无量空涨阶段。联系到今年前三个季度上海房价的涨幅仍超过十多个百分点，而交易量一直不大，尤其是本次加息之后，交易量萎缩趋势明显，外环线附近及以外区域的房屋几乎卖不动，这一判断发人深省。