主题：【欧洲经济】五次加息后，英国房价近三个月内跌落 -- 西风陶陶

U.K. House-Price Index Slumps to Lowest in 12 Years, RICS Says

Nov. 16 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. house prices fell to the lowest in almost 12 years in the three months through October, according to an industry group index, adding to evidence that five interest-rate increases in a year have ended a property boom.

The seasonally adjusted net balance of property appraisers reporting an increase in house prices from a year ago, less those identifying a drop, fell to minus 41 percent from minus 29 in the September period, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors said. That's the lowest reading since December 1992.

House prices have doubled since 1999, underpinning growth in consumer spending and helping the U.K. record its longest spurt of growth in more than 200 years. A drop in property prices may damp household spending, which makes up more than two-thirds of the economy, and help curb economic growth, which slowed to 0.4 percent in the third quarter from 0.9 percent in the second.

``It's mainly a reflection of interest rates rising rapidly over the spring and summer, which had quite a bit of impact,'' said Milan Khatri, RICS's London-based head of economics, in an interview. ``There is quite a bit of uncertainty and speculation about the market crashing. If interest rates are on hold until next year it could give grounds for stability in the market.''

The Bank of England said in its latest economic growth and inflation forecasts on Nov. 10 that it assumes property prices will fall, the first time policy makers have built declines into their forecasts. A slowdown in the housing market is evident in ``virtually all the indicators,'' Governor Mervyn King said.

`Difficult Month'

Today's reading was 6 percentage points worse than the median estimate of 17 economists surveyed by Bloomberg on Nov. 12. It follows a report from HBOS Plc, the nation's biggest mortgage lender, which showed house prices fell 1.1 percent in October, the biggest drop in four years.

``October was a difficult month,'' said Maurice Wall, a surveyor with J.H. Palmer & Sons in Burnham-on-Sea, southwest England. ``Sales were well down on last year's figures. Sustained effort to persuade vendors to reduce prices resulted in a few new sales. There could be tough months ahead.''

Today's numbers may add to arguments for the Bank of England to delay any further increases in the benchmark interest rate, which has risen to 4.75 percent in five moves since last November. All 36 economists polled by Bloomberg on Nov. 5 said rates have peaked this year. Twenty expect an increase next year.

Futures Markets

Interest rate futures slid yesterday as some traders speculated the RICS numbers would disappoint. The three-month contract maturing in December of 2005 dropped to 4.77 percent from 4.81 percent yesterday. The contract peaked at 5.76 percent on June 14. The current three-month money market rate offered between banks was 4.89 percent.

The last time the index was so low, in 1992, Britain was immersed in a four-year housing market slump following a surge in official interest rates to 15 percent three years earlier. That decline in property values, accompanied by a surge in loan defaults and home repossessions, helped push the economy into its last recession.

In today's report, for which RICS received 369 contributions, the balance of surveyor's expectations for price movements over the coming three months held at minus 25 percent, the same as in September and the lowest since April 2003.

Lack of Interest

Lack of interest from buyers contributed to a 10 percent increase in the stock of unsold properties during the three-month period, and prices dropped in every area surveyed except Scotland. The biggest declines came in southern English regions, followed by the Midlands, RICS said. The number of completed sales fell 25 percent compared with the previous year.

The price balance in London was minus 33 percent, up slightly from the previous month's minus 35 percent. Expectations for prices in the capital over the coming three months recovered somewhat, as the balance pushed up to plus 3 percent from minus 23 percent.

To contact the reporter on this story:

Sam Fleming in London at [email protected].

To contact the editors responsible for this story:

Chris Kirkham at [email protected].

Heather Harris at [email protected].

Last Updated: November 15, 2004 19:30 EST