主题：【原创】围城打援，各个击破 与澳FMG达成铁矿石长期协议 -- 天高云
中钢协与澳FMG达成铁矿石长期协议价。
降35.27%。
约降低2美元。
5亿吨，节省10亿美元。
中钢协由于力拓不能满足他的降价需求，由政府出面以非法获取国家机密罪逮捕了四名力拓员工，其中包括一名澳籍华人，希望以此为要挟，逼迫力拓降价。但是此举反而引起了广泛的国际反响，造成了很不好的国际反应。三大巨头拒绝和中钢协继续谈判，而国际上也对中国的投资环境存在广泛的担忧。中钢协的强硬并没有压低铁矿石价格，反而激发了国内贸易商囤矿的信心。铁矿石进口量节节攀升，价格也水涨船高。在中钢协无对手谈判的情况下，他首先寄希望于国内政府继续干预，通过重新收回铁矿石进口资格，统一铁矿石价格，把国内的铁矿石市场管起来，借此对国外矿商施压。但是政府在逮捕了力拓员工后，事情并没有按照中钢协的希望发展，已经对中钢协不再信任，因此对中钢协新的提议并不赞成。眼看着铁矿石现货价格一路飙升，中钢协实在无计可施，又丢不起面子，只好将铁矿石谈判权重新让给宝钢来圆场。同时政府也降低了对力拓员工的指控，由非法获取国家机密改为涉嫌侵犯商业秘密，并公开审判以证明中国投资环境的透明度良好。在这种情况下，宝钢找到FMG谈判实属无奈。
反观FMG。三大铁矿石巨头中产量最小的必和必拓2008年铁矿石生产量达1.2亿吨，而FMG产量顶多只有2000万吨，也就在全球第十位左右。 FMG由于产量比较小，在年度铁矿石谈判中并没有地位，中国希望把他拉进来搅局。但FMG却表示他只愿意做价格接受者，并不愿意挑战三大巨头的地位。那么现在他为什么又会和宝钢签这样的协议呢？是经济形式逼迫的。上周，全国近30家螺纹钢线材生产企业下调了出厂价格，一改此前集体涨价的局面。而上海期货交易所钢材期货也出现了大幅跳水。螺纹钢期货主力911合约从4968元的前期高点跌至4512元，线材期货主力911合约则下跌近700元，从5000元高位跳水至4307元。与此同时，原料市场上，尤其是部分铁矿石价格，比如印度矿石出现了微幅下跌。市场心态发生变化。大环境则是中国7月的新增贷款只有 2559 亿，远低于6月的15304亿。上证指数由2009年08月04日的3478.01点跳水，跌破3100点（今早一度跌破3000点）。而国内楼市的成交量也出现了萎缩，虽然价格还没有出现明显下跌，但是已经缺乏上涨动力。FMG的产品几乎全部供给中国，在这种经济环境下，他必然首先考虑锁定自己的盈利，保住中国这个大客户。少量让价就可以在讨好中国的同时保证自己下半年的盈利，FMG也就顺水推舟，乐得做个人情了。虽然可能得罪三大巨头，不过在商言商，生存才是最重要的。
我现在不能判断这个结果有什么影响，主要是因为这个只是公布了一个价格，没有量。如果不确定量的话，我觉得不必太在意这个谈判结果。FMG的产量太低，不能覆盖中国需求。肯定还有大量现货。按照我的判断，下半年铁矿石是要跌的，而且应该会轻易跌破这个“长期”价格。所以这个价格其实也就是让中钢协面子上过去。如果确定量的话，那肯定是签了量的比较吃亏
它现在还不是巨头
如果三大巨头不跟中国妥协
这家小弟弟将成为独一无二的巨头
FORTESCUE ACHIEVES CHINA IRON ORE PRICE
AND TOTAL VOLUME AGREEMENT FOR 2009
Perth 17 August 2009: Fortescue Metals Group Ltd (“Fortescue”
“ASX”:”FMG”) has achieved a landmark agreement with Baosteel Group
Corporation (Baosteel) and China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) for an
agreed China price for all Fortescue iron ore sold to Chinese mills for the period
July 1 to December 31, 2009.
The agreement, signed by Baosteel and CISA, commits Chinese steel mills to
acquire approximately 20 million wet metric tonnes from Fortescue for the
period between 1 July and 31 December 2009.
The agreed price is US$0.94 / dry metric tonne unit (“dmtu”) for Fortescue’s
Rocket Fines (on an FOB basis) and is around 3% under the price agreed by
other Australian producers with non Chinese Steel mills. This price equates to
approximately US$55.50 per dry tonne for Fortescue grade iron ore. Fortescue
has also agreed a lump price of US$1.00/dmtu for high grade lump which is
equivalent to approximately US$61 per dry tonne FOB.
A condition subsequent to this agreement is the completion of finance by 30
September 2009, by Chinese financiers on terms acceptable to Fortescue. This
is estimated by Fortescue to be an amount of US$5.5 billion to US$6 billion.
Under the Agreement, CISA has guaranteed that a priority will be given to FMG
to negotiate iron ore prices for 2010 if the annual pricing negotiation is
conducted.
Fortescue Chief Executive Officer, Mr Andrew Forrest, said the agreement
breaks the market impasse which has enveloped the Chinese iron ore industry
in uncertainty and added risk for the past 12 months.
“This groundbreaking agreement cements the strength of the bilateral
relationship between Australia and China in which mutual issues can be
resolved and future opportunities identified. It also creates a realistic and
agreed iron ore price that delivers value for all parties and provides strong
support for Fortescue’s continued growth” Mr Forrest said.
“The ongoing market speculation has promoted unprecedented iron ore and
steel price volatility, which in turn has created extreme production uncertainties
for Chinese steel mills and for suppliers setting individual contracts with those
mills.
“This agreement eliminates that price uncertainty, sets a solid platform for
Fortescue to deliver increased product into China and affirms our close working
relationship with CISA and all Chinese steel mills.”
Fortescue notes that while the price of steel in China has nearly doubled over
the past three months, it has fallen by 20% over the past 10 days alone,
reflecting the continued volatility in the industry.
“This agreement highlights Fortescue’s extraordinary achievement of becoming,
in only our first year of production, a critical element in the Chinese steel market
and guarantees our short to medium term tonnage volumes and underpins cash
flows irrespective of market volatility,” Mr Forrest said.
ENDS
凭什么日韩几千万吨的订货要决定中国几十亿吨订货的价格？
所以，这个定价权，中国是抢定了
不管你力拓高兴还是不高兴
都是漏在地表 只需用挖掘机扔上大翻斗
正在开发的只占探明储量的10％
还有大片的保留地根本还没探过..
hoho
看了白益民先生写的那些文章,以及从一些人口中说出的日本投资中国的种种布局.
感觉到,日本现在对中国的投资已经构成了恶意投资!是属于占领控制模式的投资.
中共真的应该查一查了.
抓住日本的软肋,对我们其他的谈判也有好处.比如钢铁.日本对世界上某些资源的控制现在真的是很深入的.
最乐观就是中国出钱，用这个公司去收购三大，否则还是无法改变格局的。