主题：Gold vs Copper -- bshu
家园 Gold vs Copper Well there was a debate on Gold vs Copper last December. It's time to do a little review. Use 12/01/2005 as the starting point, (I use this day as someone claims that China starts to long GOLD to hedge her hugh short position in Copper in December), Gold is up 10.77% till 3/1/2006. Not bad. But surprise in the same period, Copper is up 12.28%. So if you use Gold to hedge your Copper short, you still end up losing money. Instead of getting yourself out of the hole, you dig a even bigger hole. If you look at Silver, it did even better up 12.84% I didn't even count yesterday's huge price spike. Now silver is at 19 years high. It might be counter intuitive but actually Gold has the least favorable supply/demand relationship among all the metals. We are talking about defending copper soon we'll start to talk about defending silver.
家园 好像不大对， 为什么总不提你有什么高招呢？ 先不说你的数据是否准确，但1-2%的差别，值得这么夸张吗？市场如此变化多端的今天，多算一天，少算一天，结果就能倒过来。我可以明确地告诉你，国内480以下买的金。
当时的问题是，国家发现了问题，已经被逼到墙角了，你知道不知道什么叫squeeze? 去给我cover一个试试，你认为多少价钱可以cover?所以才有的hedge，效果很不错。至于你说的银子，和本争论无关，即使你认为当初要用银来hedge也不现实，因为如此大量的银你压根就买不到。
开始就告诉你，你没买过几十万吨铜，我也没买过。你如果总拿小trader的经验，以为可以随便出出进进，好像不大对吧。
家园 Some Issues I have some issues with your article. I might have misunderstood you. If that is the case, I apologize and just ignore what I said.
1. In your description last year's copper event seems more like a patriotic campaign: evil foreign speculators are squeezing us and we are fighting back. My read of the event is these people were gambling with the state's money for their own benifits. Just plain greed and they lose.
2. The price of copper is going up because hedge funds are cornering the market and we don't have pricing power so we must sell in the paper market to push it down. I have said many times copper is going up not because of hedge funds, but because of the long term supply/demand imbalance. Trying to push it down in the paper market won't work.
4. As for covering the shorts, that's a more technical issue. You ask 总不提你有什么高招呢. Well I don't have any 高招 as I don't know the facts. But I do think it is Not impossible. I gave you an example as how Jesse Livermore handled it in a similar situation.
5. Even after its monster move before December 2005(gold didn't go up much before Dec), copper still outperforms gold, don't you agree the market is telling you something?
6. I raised the issue of silver not because I want to use silver to hedge the copper short. You might not aware that silver has become an increasingly important industrial commodity just like copper, especially for the electronics industry that is booming in china. China's silver reserve is already very low if not gong completely. You want to defend copper when it up, what about silver when it is up even more?
7. Yes China's gold reserve increased last year but I strongly doubt it is because China is buying gold after December just to hedge her copper short.Since you seem to have connections and you could be right on this. But then I am even more frightened as the central bank of china is really just another hedge fund in the market. This scares me more than losing a few billion dollars. I just don't buy it.
家园 老兄不了解国内的情况， 老兄不了解国内的情况，中国的经济规模这么大，早该有自己的几千家基金百十家hedge基金在全球玩了。可惜在中国这个还是需要特权才能进入的行业，不可能让老兄你去玩我去打工的，只好让trader liu这些体制内的人先来啦。参将估计也是圈内的人吧，要不不会有这些信息的。你看他虽然关键的都不说（这可以理解），但言谈间还是能说一些你我不知道的东西的。
中国以后二十年当然会出自己的老索，不过那和在这边的打工崽没啥关系。我们的任务就是早点赚上2米粒退休。
家园 这个我同意，量大了完全不同, 这个我同意，量大了完全不同。没亲自移动过类似单子的人出的主意只能参考。
我当时也反对这hedge的主意，但只是泛泛而论。作为投机的一般原则是不要试图掩盖错误，因为一但作错可能越来越错， 从历史上看，铜和金的价格有关联，但好象程度不深（我这只是印象，真的要炒还需要统计数据），我是担心国内越投越输。
当然，现在事实证明这是个好主意，这就给一切争论划了结尾。
不过如果是我自己，我下次还是会先认输再找下一个机会。在投机市场上
你只要生成得足够久，总是有机会的。
家园 说起白银俺就一把心酸啊！ 说起白银俺就一把心酸啊！俺2004年上半年就看多白银，可惜俺那时没有炒过期货有心理障隘，结果俺去做多cde股票又没及时cut loss,亏得一塌糊涂，只好又去到处发简历找工作了。结果还错掉了goog的大行情。
看到现在的白银的价格，俺只有叹气的份。俺希望未来某天白银一天涨三块的时候，俺能在场内。