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                • 家园 "抛开逻辑很难取得共识"=抛开math, 物理?

                  it is almost the same logic, and I have posted zillion times in the past, still, unless CAS folks make some fuss (a 必要条件 only,value=? if not zero) this Chinese 物理 with math core of TG's Chinese Marxism could go on for how long? nobody knows.

                  1.

                  is white 公知, market system better than TG's Marxism of Chinese version, or Indian's temples, not necessarily, it is all relative;

                  but if, china stays and lives as a largely open system exchanging information/energy largely with US/west logic led world, what china can do?

                  and what is exactly the "math" of TG's Marxism of Chinese version? even chairman X did not talk about it in this 3rd plenary speech;

                  so far, "white 公知, market system" is the lessor of all evils, it is very hard not to go with it;

                  2.

                  can china still grow Chinese "物理" under TG's "math" of Chinese Marxism?

                  of course, it just cost the Chinese system much more, in almost all the aspects of Chinese society.

                  “改革是由问题倒逼而产生”这番话是中共中央总书记、国家主席习近平在中共中央2013年9月17日中南海召开的党外人士座谈会上发表的讲话要点

                  "倒逼" has not really come to the core math of TG's Chinese Marxism yet, 不见棺材不落泪, which as a social physics problem, 棺材 & 泪 are hard to model and predict, non linear, but when it comes, it could come in a non linear way too.

                • 家园 量子计算机搞成, 美女 price up,直线

                  1.

                  all 神=fallacies, no value anymore, so money all chasing 美女 etc, and 美女 is always 美女, 奥卡姆剃刀 can not cut into it;

                  2.

                  and everybody else will be not that lucky at all

                  TED | Talks | List - TED.com

                  there is this young MIT entrepreneur saying that internet is out there to destroy values, likely with 奥卡姆剃刀 to cut all the "fake values" into very little values if any, he gave a few examples, such as those "silly" mainstream companies overpaid his company for doing some projects, which can be done by his company on internet with almost no cost, etc

                  can't find the link

                  3.

                  somehow, global capital market has been 奥卡姆剃刀 cutting into all the emerging market, EEM, EMB, DBV, likely questioning the business models of entire china/EM world, I hope chairman X is aware of that.

                • 家园 "没有共识的中国就是一盘量子"

                  but it can still hang together, producing, moving forward, likely still growing as well, with a world #2 super power title, because of that, TG still enjoys managing 这盘子, alone by itself, not to share it at all with 连战李光耀;

                  until one day, TG can't do it anymore, prompted by change from TG inside, or outside of china, neither likely in the "foreseeable" future, so everybody has to enjoy 量子 uncle TG for a long while, like it or not.

            • 领域
              家园 "遇到在精神位面无法征服的,就从物质位面加以消灭"

              well said, that's kind of white's platform of 证伪 all kinds of fallacies, an important subject worth of tons of books, for us to think "smarter".

              文小刚 on his "PRL rejected my paper on lattice chiral fermion theory ", kind of : ""不可证伪的理论,没啥意义"。"New theory should predict something new that is missed by the old theory." The above are very well said and they raise a very good point. The string-net theory (or the qubit theory) of elementary particles does 可证伪. It does predict something new that is missed by the old theory."

              in physics, your theory has to predict something new, for all other physicists to play it out in their labs, MIT, or Qinghua, beida, period.

              for money related thing, put it into global capital market, no money, no honey, period.

              for any other social 精神位面 stuff, they all have their own individual platforms to play out;

              vs TG's almost universal 证伪 platform of 伟光正 for almost all the games in china.

              1.

              and if one reads 文小刚 's "我们生活在一个量子计算机里 We live inside a quantum computer", one can finds many similarities between that and the brain map

              of

              夕曦:【原创】教育探索(六)—大脑神经网络是如何形成的 2012-01-31 20:20:16

              DNA里携带的是一种分形的自组织规则。 [ 拿不准 ] 于:2012-01-31 20:20:16 复:3633311

              这种规则中肯定有与环境因素有关的开关。

              这也是形成多样型的基础。

              2.

              as you said, fallacies & 证伪 are two sides of white bloody knife hanging on over the heads of everybody else in the current gaming phase of human system.

              with that, white can argue that they figured that weapon out through a series bloody religions wars among themselves and with others, then 文艺复兴, then newton.., then market system as a platform of 证伪 all kind of social sciences/fallacies; etc;

              they paid for it, supposedly.

              3.

              now, Chinese yellow's social science as of day 1: 修身齐家治国平天下 etc kind of model, a lot of "better" than Indian's temple of all kinds of heaven based social science models?

              a heaven based fallacy can never be 证伪, that ghost is likely going to hunt Indians as a nation for how many more decades?

              "修身齐家治国平天下" with a Marxism "mark up" as the lessor of two evils has a 证伪 issue as well, obviously;

              科斯定理 - MBA智库百科

              科斯定理(Coase Theorem)科斯定理是由诺贝尔经济学奖得主罗纳德·哈里·科斯(Ronald H. Coase)命名。他于1937年和1960年分别发表了《厂商的性质》和《社会成本问题...

              and a bounce of white economics models are all about this cost of information processing, etc;

              "修身齐家治国平天下" as such, is a still live "markov链" locking the mind of Chinese as a nation, to the "benefit" of TG as china's leadership group.

              4.

              it is all relative, if uncle sam's ass had not been covered with this Ben Fed QE economics , with 页岩油 physics of a Greece immigrant entrepreneur in US, TG's "修身齐家治国平天下" based 北京共识 model would have looked a lot of stronger;

              and Russian bear would be more likely to short us/west together with TGchina.

              6.

              still, one cannot say Indians or Chinese are "dead meat" in terms of 精神位面 & their social belief systems, that 精神 jump could be a fallacy itself, almost, but would anybody care about it at all?

              human system will never run out of fallacies, it always picks a few critical ones, then get busy with working on them, money (information, energy) made or lost, then moves on, a game of one fallacy/与环境因素有关的开关 at a time, but 同時 by zillions human animals all working on the fallacies they picked at their own location in this GR 洛伦茨流形;

              and 愛因斯坦 said, folks, 測地線 is there for you guys to figure it out collectively, work with your head and ass together, and good luck(:)

              -----------

              [20]文小刚 2013-10-29 08:49 Re【16】 【18】

              "不可证伪的理论,没啥意义"。"New theory should predict something new that is missed by the old theory." The above are very well said and they raise a very good point. The string-net theory (or the qubit theory) of elementary particles does 可证伪. It does predict something new that is missed by the old theory. See section IV D

              in arXiv:1210.1281 "Topological order: from long-range entangled quantum matter to an unification of light and electrons"

              http://blog.sciencenet.cn/blog-1116346-736093.html

            • 领域
              家园 yellows like "grand design"

              1.

              yellows all like "grand design"

              jpy, Korean, more or less of elite's grand design for their social economic development, or a modified version of 100 % white (us/west vs soviet union) model;

              2.

              TG kind of does the same, more of 70% white model/soviet union;

              that 30% difference is non-linear, and as a 初始条件, it may well have kicked china nation 偏微分方程 system into a totally different 轨道 in this largely "general relativity" human world, and for how many decades more?

              history will tell.

              on the one hand, 70% white really hurts, Marxism is an ideology, not economics;

              on the other hand, marx's phd student 列宁建党建军学说 as a political operational theory and model really helped TG big time, making TG feels very good, confident, until today, with 911 lottery winning of zillion dollars, life is very good, man, and what is wrong with all you 公知 fxxking heads?(:)

              3.

              yellow's grand design brain model makes sense:

              1)

              you have to learn from white, figuring out their tricks, etc;

              2)

              then, as nation, after elite learned white tricks, they push the reform top down, with a centralized model of uniting the nation's resources of whatever, and to catch up with whites, kind of 后发优势林毅夫"倾国倾城" model.

              3)

              TG started that way too, but with M as head trader of TG hedge fund in a global market, he first longed soviet union, shorted US, kind of understandable; then he started shorting soviet union as well, and almost the whole world, long third world only, a losing trade still hurting china as of today;

              then M made an another mistake, he made his entire long third world trade worthless by selling out china's only buddy 巴基斯坦, M was busy with US/UN stuff, "forgot" 巴基斯坦

              印度肢解巴基斯坦,孟加拉国成立 2011-12-17 | 阅: 转: | 分享 1971年12月17日 印度和东巴基斯坦之间的战争结束 1971年12月,印度和东巴基斯坦之间的...

              then D fxxked Vietnam for whatever reasons, another losing trade;

              then...now we have chairman X as head trader.

              4)

              so, TG as an authoritarian hedge fund has a huge volatility issue, that "financial" volatility has to be hedged out by TG's political & military power, mostly domestically oriented, & obviously, the chairman X's 国安委 stuff.

              4.

              "神经网络中高达10的15次方个突触的所有具体连接", ising model, general relativity theory, etc, all tell us, human system as a open & dissipative system relies on information intelligence powered innovation, and that innovation is a locally happened quantization of collective processing, so far, market system resembles that very well;

              where & how that local quantization of collective information processing and modeling would take place? if non-general relativity model, we have quantum, qft "probability" models, etc, basically statistical physics, kind of a somehow regulated market system, very much of what we have now, kind of almost closed near equilibrium system with some kind of borders;

              with a general relativity model, we don't have a quantization model or statistical physics, nothing really;

              with that, "grand design" is not going to work

              and, white's "1 inner logic model" & almost "1 language" helped them out when playing games in this largely general relativity human world, among other things.

              5.

              human being has to be obviously very creative to survive & grow, this cloud, AI & whatever coming is really going to change the world, potentially, and that is what a non-linear event/breaking through means, and that has to be coming out of some kind of democratic "unregulated" all-out people mass brain war in an internet world, with whomever breaking out first as a new leader to lead the information intelligence hungry crowds, that kinds of people's war is very hard to be designed at top by whomever, a country should do whatever it could on the side to help its people brain war, hoping its nationally breaking out innovators could scale into the international platform and lead the world, charging the mass a huge first mover premium, the way aapl, goog, fb have been doing.

              and looks like TSLA is doing this commercial space x thing already;

              vs. TG's model of 两弹一星+ 王铁人+ dazai girl, kind of a commercial version of 列宁建党建军学说 ;

              I hope chairman X would not have that kind of Mao fantasy still flying around in his night vision of china dream;

              that is still a risk: for an adult , "神经网络中高达10的15次方个突触的所有具体连接" is pretty much all done already, "dead meat", only getting worse, for most of us.

              by the way, for ising model, "markov chain" is a very predictive "probability density function" /statistical model in a some kind of 自旋平方反比 potential field.

              As a result, all of us adults have risk of being "markov chained" to whatever core believe system we have in our brain, and that core believe/logic processing system once formed, is very difficult to modify, if not impossible;

              kind of why 公知 五毛 folks never change here in this forum, although possibly they may all try to change themselves, once 公知 五毛=公知 五毛 for life (:)

              hopefully, their "markov chain" would not go on and chain up their children's brain as well, a 公知 logic every 五毛 parent would agree, finally?(:)

              6.

              because innovation is so unpredictable while extremely important for the system as a whole to survive and grow, successful innovators get rewarded in a non-liner way:

              winners take all, and losers? slowly phasing out as waste, "entropy", dumping out of system to conserve energy, theoretically speaking

              7.

              "2.我觉得孙正义对技术的发展过于乐观了。他的预测完全是线性的,但是材料,电池,无线通信速率等都是有物理上限的"

              that could be true, 孙正义 as everybody else has his share of brain "markov chain";

              that is kind of human collective system is non-linear, "孙正义质点"A not ="孙正义质点" B fundamentally, in newton's linear model sense, so 孙正义A + 孙正义 B is not "predicable", that is kind of a start of general relativity theory;

              but "non linear" quantum chip system at room temperature are being figured out & tried out everywhere, with the most recent accomplishments reported by

              量子时代临近!澳大利亚科学家制造出迄今最大量子回路-科技世界网

              2013年11月23日 - 制造量子计算机的两个最大障碍是微小量子系统的精确控制和可扩展性问题,这是制造大型超高速量子计算机的关键所在。我们已经在可扩展性方面取得突破性...

              8.

              once humanity figures out this 量子计算机, it could drag human capitalism out of its current deflation trap easily, humanity is going to enter into a brain or AI phase of capitalism.

              and obviously, 列宁帝国主义论 almost predicted this deflation stage of financial capitalism, although he missed Fed's QE, and he had this "markov chain" of Marxism somewhere in his obviously very talented brain;

              "为何早期的苏共中央政治局中,一半左右是犹太人?_二战吧_百度贴吧

              9条回复 - 发帖时间: 2012年3月12日

              列宁和列宁的助手托洛孜基、红军的缔造人斯维尔德诺夫等等,都是犹太人。为何总人口如此之少的犹太人会在早期的苏共中央政治局中有如此大影响力 回复 yao..."

              political 犹太人 traders of soviet union vs financial 犹太人 traders of US/west?

              once your bet is made, hard to unwind, even it sucks.

              what would be "markov chain" in chairman X's brain? everybody is obviously interested to figure it out, so you can arbitrage him, making money out of his pocket, why not?(:)

              • 家园 量子PC

                大概就是每个人都活在梦里吧,如同thirteenth floor。

                • 家园 大脑神经网络"量子效應 "

                  this is an another subject worth of tons of books, again, what we care about is its "core algorism", not really the "technical" details (which is "painfully" a core part of physics as well, so, we all have to be technical evils) of it, for the benefit of coding it out, potentially making a thinking model out of it, that is kind of why I heavily write in physics and math;

                  1.

                  【原创】量子化学历史拾零-前言 花23 西行的风 字425 2008-04-26 11:40:23

                  原创】二 从二战难民到诺贝尔 Walter Kohn 花31 西行的风 字1887 2008-04-28 00:20:13

                  ..O KohnSham 方程突破: 再现原子的壳层结构 花4 晓兵 字9544 2013-08-19 18:06:29

                  ...O 彭桓武: 非周期晶体能级间隔>n倍室温能量kt =遗传稳 晓兵 字551 2013-08-23 17:23:17

                  ...O 计算化学是以后材料学的前景所在 黄土布衣 字131 2013-08-21 23:44:42

                  ....O 科學研究本來就是循證過程 红尘有幸蓝锦夏 字97 2013-08-25 20:58:25

                  .....O 主要问题是现在材料方面的计算理论还不行 黄土布衣 字54 2013-09-13 22:05:25

                  ......O 就算我歧視吧 開會遇到理論學講演我一律是不聽跑去逛街的 红尘有幸蓝锦夏 字112 2013-09-14 11:23:25

                  ....O trial & error材料研究模式:电子的"理性" 晓兵 字2496 2013-08-22 15:14:02

                  ....O "别人几十年甚至几百年的经验积累都成shit了" 花1 晓兵 字3152 2013-08-22 11:42:41

                  2.

                  大脑所有的神经元细胞(1000亿以上), 1 细胞 =1000 Trillion atoms, the building parts of 细胞 such as DNA, RNA, protein, all have millions of atoms each.

                  so, basically 大脑= a group of atoms working together as a quantum system in terms of physics, with Numbers of atoms > out of current physics model's reach.

                  if I remember correctly, our current physics model can only handle wave function of a few hundreds of atoms working together as a system.

                  "本世纪初, 人们创立了量子力学理论, 用于研究微观粒子的运动规律。1927 年海特勒和伦

                  敦应用量子力学原理研究了两个氢原子组成氢分子的化学键本质, 从而开创了量子化学的先

                  河。就在量子力学诞生后的1929 年, 当时的剑桥大学数学教授Paul Dirac 声称, 把整个化学归

                  结成一些数学方程的基本定律已经完全搞清楚了, 唯一的问题是方程太复杂, 以至于不能解这

                  些方程。Dirac 是赫赫有名的量子力学创始人之一, 他与Schrdinger 共享1933 年物理学诺贝尔

                  奖。Dirac 所指的方程即是现在人们熟知的研究微观粒子的Dirac 定态方程。由他的这番话足

                  见求解这些方程的困难。颇有趣的是当时作为剑桥大学数学系研究生的Pople 教授今天却因

                  为他在发展量子化学计算方法方面的贡献而获得1998 年诺贝尔化学奖。Pople 发展的计算程

                  序正是用于解决象分子这样复杂的化学体系的薛定谔方程。量子化学的根本问题就是求解分

                  子体系的薛定谔方程。由此可见, Pople 教授对量子化学发展所做贡献的伟大意义。Pople 教授

                  早在60 年代就率先把计算机应用于量子化学中, 在半经验量子化学计算方法方面做出了重要

                  的贡献。这里有大家熟知的用于研究不饱和有机分子的电子光谱的PariseParrPople 方法。

                  这一被称为PPP 方法的发明人之一就是Pople 教授。但是, 在当时, Pople 教授也象当年的Di

                  rac 一样, 认为由于对计算能力要求很高, 解决非经验的量子化学计算方法, 即便象求解

                  Schrdinger 方程的HartreeFock 近似解也是很难达到的。

                  求解Schrdinger 方程的HartreeFock 方法通常是由两个步骤来完成。第一步是把分子轨

                  道用一套基函数来展开。根据Boys 的建议, 这些基函数可以选用以原子为中心的高斯型函

                  数。应该指出, 基函数展开方法使复杂的微分方程变成比较简单的矩阵方程, 而后者特别适

                  合用计算机进行求解。第二步, 也是最重要的一步, 是用积分方法计算体系的各部分能量, 包

                  括动能、电子与电子之间的排斥能以及电子之间的交换相关能等部分。对分子体系计算这些

                  积分的工作量随体系电子数N 的增加而以N

                  4 剧增, 使得对于含多个原子的比较复杂分子的

                  计算无法实现"

                  3.

                  what is the point?

                  the point is our current chemistry/biology theory about "含多个原子的比较复杂分子" working together as "gene", "protein" system is still largely an experience based science with potentially many fallacies evils fooling around, whom we have no idea, kind of the way chairman X may not like china "mathematics" VP Li, for the same reason, nobody likes "unknown";

                  the physics layer of GMO is "unknown", period.

                  and because we don't have a 量子化学计算 model of gene, protein, or any GMO stuff etc=GMO has a huge volatility risk, either directions, or any directions;

                  but, who cares about that "physics" risk of GMO now? it is already in our mind and body, for good or bad, just swallow it, and good luck (:).

                  4.

                  what is the heck of that 量子化学 stuff in relation to 大脑神经网络"量子效應 "? how can I make my brain get rid of the damned "markov chain" thing, so I can think outside of box and be smarter?

                  well, "量子效應 " is much more related to 自旋 of 電子, atoms, etc, than anything else, with dirac equation breaking the ice for his fellow human being in getting further into "量子效應 " world, and 自旋 is both local and global, as such we have gauge field theory and model, pioneered by prof 杨振宁;

                  论AB效应解释的语境依赖性- 豆丁网

                  www.docin.com 文学/艺术/军事/历史 文物考古

                  轉為繁體網頁

                  2012年3月26日 - ... 方式,是由吴大骏和杨振宁于1975年所提出的,既不使用电磁场术语,也 ... 与场强和矢势的性质所不同,狄拉克相因子s(c)不是在特定的时空中 ...

                  5.

                  connections of human being is one of the tricks to trigger possibly 大脑神经网络"量子效應 "

                  孙昌璞院士做客大家讲坛谈量子效应与器件_学院新闻_山东大学物理 ...

                  www.phym.sdu.edu.cn/2011/1031/1413.html

                  轉為繁體網頁

                  2011年10月31日 - 报告中孙昌璞院士首先介绍了自己在光合作用中量子效应. ... 另外,孙院士还介绍了动物大规模的迁徙问题。 ... 这是一个涉及到量子力学一些基本问题的过程,即宏观微弱量对量子演化过程的影响会不会使初态 ... 孙昌璞,中国科学院院士。1996年起,任中科院理论物理所研究员。2009年11月当选为中国科学院院士。

                  孙昌璞 is an another student of prof 杨振宁, who taught 孙昌璞 群表示论 "trick", etc

                  Born-Oppenheimer近似的精确验证与经典对应张力,王成,孙昌璞(东北师范大学理论 ... 关于q一Bose代数B,人们虽然已构造了许多具体的表示,但对于表示论的基本 ...

                  and as I posted before, 杨振宁's father gave 杨振宁 a critical short but well written 群论 book when 杨振宁 was working on a paper assigned by 吴大骏 on some kind of "atom spectrum" problems , a book benefited him for his life, as 杨振宁 said;

                  6.

                  now with the emerging AI economy, you put 杨振宁's father, 孙昌璞 etc all in a global 3D grand classroom virtually all over the globe, teaching all the young brains of the whole world, making n% of them all become 中国科学院院士 level scientists, where this world will be in terms of whatever progresses?

                  7.

                  "量子效應 "/自旋 as an non-linear "breaking through" quantum effect of both locally & globally through of connected human 大脑神经网络 is actually the trick of 列宁建党建军组织 model, and with that model, TG powered numerous 生的伟大 死的光荣 folks, it is essentially a 自旋/"量子效應 ", or 精神原子弹;

                  goog, fb, amzn, tsla=kind of uncle sam's 精神原子弹 or 自旋/"量子效應 ", in a way, in today's AI war;

                  and in that AI platform, we can possible have our brain get rid of the damned "馬可夫鏈(Markov Chain) " and become much more productive, although we may have to pay goog etc some kind of fees.

                  again, I would hope that chairman X and his red gen II club buddies are not going to fight a yesterday's war of "生的伟大 死的光荣" in today's world, that would be a losing trade with potentially permanent damage to Chinese as a nation, period.

                  通宝推:墨虎,
                • 家园 prof 张首晟 is working on it

                  杨振宁门生 to help cover uncle sam's deflation ass? (:)

                  and prof 张首晟's

                  复旦大学 alumni, china "mathematics" VP Li kind of "laid off" by chairman X? not a "good" sign?

                  if I were chairman X, I would do the same, when playing games, you never want to have somebody sitting near you with some kind of tricks in his pocket, tricks you have no clue about at all, regardless of whomever that person is, enemy or friend, and they are hard to identify anyway, so throw them all out, fxxk it, so what?(:)

                  ------------

                  专访华人科学家张首晟:追寻电子的自旋舞步

                  2008年01月04日 17:12:39  来源:新华网

                  新华网北京1月4日电(记者黄堃)电脑技术的进一步发展受制于关键元器件的散热问题,去年刚刚被实验证实的量子自旋霍尔效应描述了奇妙的电子“自旋舞步”,有望解决这一问题。这一成果不久前入选了美国《科学》杂志评出的2007年十大科学进展。主持相关理论研究的华人科学家、美国斯坦福大学教授张首晟日前

                  在北京接受了新华社记者的专访。

                  张首晟教授说,有关霍尔效应的研究成果曾两次获得诺贝尔奖。霍尔效应最初由科学家埃德温·霍尔在19世纪末发现,是通电导体在磁场中表现出的一种特殊的电磁效应。1980年,科学家又发现在极低温和强磁场条件下,霍尔效应会呈现量子化的表现形式,这就是量子霍尔效应。量子霍尔效应中的电流几乎没有能量损失,也就是说不会发热,这引发了科学界研制新的电脑元器件的设想。

                  由于量子霍尔效应所需的条件是苛刻的,因此,张首晟等科学家转向研究量子自旋霍尔效应。电子是电流的载体,它除了负有电荷以外还具有一种叫做自旋的性质,这种自旋也会出现量子霍尔效应,这就是量子自旋霍尔效应。它同样没有能量损耗,并且不需要强磁场,还可能不需要低温。

                  张首晟教授介绍说,利用量子自旋霍尔效应有可能研制出新一代的电脑,延长摩尔定律的生命。摩尔定律认为,电脑的关键元器件晶体管会越来越小,同时随着集成度的增大,电脑的计算能力会增加。但是随着晶体管越小越密集,发热问题也就会越突出,因此许多人预言摩尔定律的有效期只能再延续十年左右。如果能在室温下实现量子自旋霍尔效应,将可以催生新的几乎不发热的电脑元器件。

                  张首晟教授

                  说:“可能在十年后目前的半导体技术潜力用完之时,会出现基于量子自旋霍尔效应的新一代电脑。”

                  他还专门提到,这是一个新兴领域,中国如果能抓住机会,可以抢占未来电脑技术的制高点。他的科研团队正在和中科院等单位进行相关合作。

                  张首晟15岁进入复旦大学学习,20岁师从杨振宁先生攻读博士学位,30岁成为斯坦福大学终身教授。他目前还担任IBM公司和斯坦福大学联合设立的自旋电子学研究中心的主任

      • 难说
        家园 QE: a new colonization game

        1.

        learning that from uncle sam, ABE shorts both jpy and Japanese government bonds, flooding Asian countries with JPY, basically colonizing Asian yellow guys with JPY economic logic/risk pricing etc, technology, etc;

        uncle sam did QE with the whole world; Germany kind of colonized southern European countries with Germany export & financing;

        TG has yet figure out hot to QE people of other countries, before that, QE Chinese farmers, somebody has to be QEed

        so far, abe QE is working

        jpy monetary base rises more than expected, 52.5% vs 47.2% expected

        2.

        obviously, uncle sam doesn't want to see JPY QE Asian countries too much, affecting USD's idol status, and CNY's joining the game would be making it worse for both USD & JPY

      • 难说
        家园 2010& 2011,中美中欧中韩间的贸易差额均大幅下降

        1.

        obviously, japan is not out of deflation trap/evil yet, & china may well be at the beginning of stagnation of two evils;

        japan still has a very sizable & well diversified overseas profit making network, sucking blood from overseas to feed jpy gov;t and its people, and the jpy economy.

        so, jpy with 1 evil on its back can short CNY with two evils on its back? two east Asian yellow guys 作战 with each other with 伤口? 罗马斗兽场?

        2.

        "今天中国媒体的头条新闻是:“卡梅伦:英国将做中国在西方的最大支持者”。看不懂了,只想起德国铁相俾斯麦的一句话:英国人外交的最大特点,就是找到一个傻瓜,然后利用他实现自己的目标。。不知道,这一次,英国人的傻瓜是谁,是哪几个

        【日本防相与英国海军参谋长同意合作应对东海防空识别区问题】日本防卫相小野寺五典2日在防卫省会见了英国海军参谋长泽姆贝拉斯,双方就合作应对中国划设东海防空识别区问题达成了一致。"

        3.

        and of course, among Chinese themselves, TG fxxks 李光耀連戰" 中華聯邦", every time, period.

        國民黨榮譽主席連戰晤習近平時拋出「一個中國、兩岸和平、互利融合、振興中華」,大陸官方媒體隻字未提.

        1970年代李光耀倡議大陸、台灣、香港、澳門、新加坡等合組中華聯邦(或邦聯),

        4.

        this world has been and likely will be largely a "白色数学物理公理" & "白色社会政治经济学公知" dominated human capitalism game for a while, and with the upcoming AI economy, yellow folks may have to work even "harder" for white folks, very likely.

        ---------------

        http://economy.caixin.com/2013-11-20/100607139.html

        中科院:中美增加值贸易顺差降一半

        2013年11月20日 11:29 来源于 财新网

        0

        中国货物贸易出口中进口占比,已从2002年的48.2%降至2011年的39.6%;传统劳动密集型产业出口中,国内增加值含量远高于机械制造业

          【财新网】(记者 于海荣)按增加值计算,中国与主要贸易伙伴间的贸易差额发生较大变化,其中与美国的变化最大。以增加值计算的中美贸易顺差,2010年比现行统计降低56.2%,2011年降低54.2%。中国科学院11月19日在“中欧全球价值链研讨会”上发布了研究成果。

          中国科学院全球价值链课题组的这一研究,受商务部、海关总署、国家统计局、国家外汇管理局等政府部门委托。

          据课题组测算,中国单位出口的增加值含量较低。2010年,中国每出口1000美元,为中国带来615美元增加值。不过,从发展趋势看,这一数字正逐年提高,中国货物贸易出口中的进口成分占比,已从2002年的48.2%下降至2011年的39.6%。

          按行业看,传统劳动密集型产业及非金属矿物制品业出口中,国内增加值含量要远高于机械制造业。纺织业、服装鞋帽皮革制品、木材加工及家具制造、非金属矿物制品业、金属制品业,每1000美元出口所带来的国内增加值均在700-800美元之间。

          而每出口1000美元交通运输设备制造业、电气机械及器材制造业通信设备,所带来的国内增加值均不足550美元,计算机及其他电子设备制造业、仪器仪表及文化办公用机械制造业甚至不足450美元。

          按增加值统计,2010年和2011年,中美、中欧、中韩间的贸易差额均大幅下降,而中日间贸易逆差则有所扩大。

          其中,中美贸易顺差分别下降56.2%和54.2%,中欧贸易顺差分别下降43.6%和44.5%,中韩贸易逆差下降48.1%和43.5%,中日贸易逆差则分别扩大23.5%和41.8%。

          这一结果,与年初经合组织(OECD)和世界贸易组织(WTO)公布的结果有所差异。OECD和WTO的测算称,按附加值测算,2009年,中国出口中外国含量占比为30%,中国对美国的贸易顺差减少25%,对日本的贸易逆差由原来的145亿美元缩减至20亿美元,处于基本均衡状态,对韩国的逆差下降近80%。

          对不同测算的结果差异,中国社科院世界政治与经济研究所所长助理宋泓分析认为,两个方面因素会影响这一结果。首先,不同年份间,各国贸易数据的增长和变化不确定,对不同贸易伙伴的增速变化并不一致,数据的变化或当年的偶然因素,都会影响具体的结果;其次,不同于传统统计方式,附加值贸易统计并非是统计结果,而是在原有数据基础上估算、推算的结果,不同的研究在研究方法、投入产出表的数据处理等方面有出入,结果可能不同。

          商务部部长助理张向晨认为,竞争力和比较优势不仅体现在贸易量上,还表现在对全球分工的参与程度、对全球价值的创造和获取程度上。通过贸易增加值统计数据库,可以用历史数据探寻转型升级的规律,为新一轮开放找准着力点,研究中国经济实现转型升级的路径。

          张向晨还认为,由于贸易增加值统计与现行国民经济核算体系协调难度较大,且成本较高,当前形势下,这种统计研究和制度设计,更多是现行国际贸易统计制度的补充

    • 家园 汇率货币双贬值:武士道日本战略"做空"自己?

      1. jpy's circulation in world, as of 2009

      http://goldnews.bullionvault.com/all_the_money_in_the_world_102720093

      Country/Union Currency Code Amount (US$bn) Percentage of all world money

      Eurozone EUR 1067.6 24.0%

      United States USD 862.3 19.4%

      Japan JPY 805.4 18.1%

      China (mainland) CNY 539.7 12.1%

      India INR 144.7 3.3%

      2.

      JPY 汇率贬值 also helps to grow Japanese corporate business in overseas, in Asian countries in particular, they are making tons of profit already, remitting back to japan every march of the year, & traders all stop shoring JPY at that time;

      3.

      with all the 东海防空识别区 etc fuss china is making, uncle TG is basically yelling at everybody:

      why I can't dump my CNY into your mouth & ass (:), just like USA, Japan have been doing, I want to re-write "rules" of game, with Chinese as one of underwriting guys;

      uncle sam, all white guys, and a few their "yellow" buddies: how do we play this game out with uncle X?

      now with his carefully planned 东海防空识别区 as a first shot has been fired, fairly loud, with a lot of smokes, what would be chairman X's follow up trade?

      3.

      ABE QE=汇率与货币双贬值, japan dare to 作空和卖空 japan

      somebody has to long japan on the other side of the trade, or there is a "worse" guy out there as as an even better "short" trade target near by, so, ABE's calculation likely=

      jpy is the lessor of the two evils, vs CNY, or china;

      "很多人说中国的债务不是特别高,这是指的中央政府债务。但如果将中央政府债务、地方政府债务和企业债务加总计算与GDP占比的话,中国基本上是世界第二,只低于日本,高于欧元区,高于美国,更远高于印度、东南亚等国家或者地区。"

      again, as I posted, I don't think china would 崩潰 or anything of that nature;

      the trick is market expectation: you are pretty bad, or worst than others, that is all what matters;

      perceived risk of 中国债务="muddy water" , how muddy is muddy, nobody knows=even muddier

      & CNY is not JPY in terms of internationalization, then TG can't monetize its 债务 internationally;

      monetizing TG's 债务 with 农村土地流转 may be TG's only game, which is an essentially short the Chinese farmers trade, what else chairman X could do?

      if that is the top priority of X model, then this 識別區 is likely a 外海(very smart) launched ideology preparation of 剝奪農民(为祖国牺牲), putting it in a real "evil" way

      4.

      if ABE figures it all out about X model as seen in the above, he would think

      1)

      then X's 东海防空识别区 is really more of domestically oriented political & ideology fuss, likely a paper tiger

      2)

      农村土地流转/剝奪農民 to monetize TG's huge Ponzi game is really X model's 重中之重

      he has to play that 农村土地流转 game very well, the only 战略预备队 he has, which will take him at lease a couple of years, if not longer.

      and that 战略预备队 is for chairman X's domestic trade only, he can't use that to go into an even a regional conflict with japan/USA;

      a regional conflict can get out of control, 升級, then chairman X would really need his 战略预备队 in the case of regional conflict's 升級, so far, he does not really have one, unless he is ready to go nuclear, & even in that case, china is not likely coming out of the nuclear mess as a winner, then what for?

      5.

      Russian bear is of course not a 战略预备队 of china, and obviously no one is, internationally, then china is totally naked, all international 观望者 could potentially all jump in, fxxking china from behind, if china messes up, a big guy with a lot of money in his pocket, all animals would become red eyed wolves right away, sex & money as an always working trigger, in a non-linear human game.

      I would think, that with TG as 身经百战 super powerful political organization, chairman X could drive the ship fairly well, in the next couple of years, he would consult with all the major players of TG, in making any important decisions, he should know that he is not even comparable to M, D, or J, by any standards, he should be at least as prudent as H; I would think that H is an at least 自知之明 leader.

      the worst case: X thinks X >=M+D+J+H.

      history will tell.

      ---------

      刘海影 is a pretty good macro economist

      http://blog.caijing.com.cn/expert_article-151566-61631.shtml

      中国经济未来不确定性的主要来源

      2013-11-19 13:11:15

      分类:未分类

      中国经济在可预见的未来的最主要的矛盾是什么?可能是实体经济极高的可预测性,与金融危机极强的不确定性之间的矛盾。

      不发生金融危机的情况下,目前中国经济的轨迹未来几个季度的变量很小,具有很高的可预测性。在去年年底之前,过去十几年的中国经济波动从库存周期的角度可以得到很好的理解:高速工业化过程中,由投资建设和产能释放驱动的库存波动可以解释大部分的周期型态;但从去年年底新周期开始之后,整个分析框架和逻辑可能出现了变化。主要原因就在于在过去这十几年里,中国建设了过高的过剩产能,并且这个过剩产能是由过高的债务负担来予以支撑的。

      很多人说中国的债务不是特别高,这是指的中央政府债务。但如果将中央政府债务、地方政府债务和企业债务加总计算与GDP占比的话,中国基本上是世界第二,只低于日本,高于欧元区,高于美国,更远高于印度、东南亚等国家或者地区。

      中国经济未来不确定性的主要来源

      (红色柱为政府与企业债务占比)

      中国这么高的过剩产能压迫资本回报率出现直线下降。资本回报率的下降的证据非常多,实际上中国现在的资本回报率可以说是过去十几年来的最低点,同时负债率是最高点。相当多的企业的资本回报率极低,这些企业没有能力靠自己的经营生存下去,就不得不靠加杠杆加债务来支撑。这种情况下,过大的产能是由过大的债务来予以维系的,而这个状况在今年其实没有更改,预计明年也不会改变。

      中国经济未来不确定性的主要来源

      (ROA为非金融上市公司资产收益率,负债率为非金融上市公司债务占资产比例)

      这样的经济循环往下走,它的一个必然的逻辑就是总有某一天,经济所遭遇的不仅仅是流动性的危机,而是某一些局部链条破裂、出现清偿性危机的可能性。为什么今年利率仍然在往上走,我觉得从这个角度其实是可以理解的:从需求端而言,大量的企业(包括房地产企业、过剩产能行业里的僵尸企业、地方政府平台公司等)对资金的需求不太受利率的抑制。而从央行的态度而言,他们好像比较坚决的希望能够收紧流动性,号称我们发的钞票太多了,M2已经上百万亿了,要收这个流动性。所以,这两者之间其实是造成一个矛盾的格局,因而造成在投资回报率最低、债务比例最高的情况下,利率仍然在上升。而利率上升必然会削弱相当多企业和金融机构的生存能力。

      在这个游戏终结之前,这种加杠杆逻辑基本上笼罩了中国经济变动的轨迹。之前的库存周期的逻辑因此被破坏掉了。所以,这一轮库存周期是一个碎片化的周期,一会儿加一会儿减,或者上游行业加下游行业减,完全不像以前历次库存见底之后经济快速恢复的情形。我去年年底写文章说今年面临的是一个“耐克式复苏”,这个复苏是浅和弱的,现在看的确也是这样。这就是因为庞大的过剩产能已经把库存周期压碎掉了,它没办法像以前那样形成一个自我正反馈的循环。

      为什么说主要的矛盾在于宏观经济的强可预测性和金融危机的强不确定性之间的矛盾,就在于如果没有金融危机,上面描述的经济轨迹明年会持续下去,宏观经济增速在7%~7.5%之间,通货膨胀不会失控,杠杆率与利率继续上升。但是从6月“钱荒”到目前债券市场体现出来的状况看,已经揭示了极强的一个脆弱性,显示出在我们金融体系的某些链条的局部,其实是非常脆弱的。如果钱荒的时间持续一周,可能我们今天的状况已经完全不一样了。这意味着,央行用简单的总量控制的方法来解决这个问题其实是不可行的。所以,央行要回答的问题是,当执行自己的收流动性的这么一个预定政策与实际经济状况体现出来的金融脆弱性之间的矛盾呈现出来的时候该怎么办,这是一个问题。

      我个人担心,如果在明年年中的某一个时点,当金融层面的脆弱性暴露在央行面前的时候,如果央行不事先做好自己的预案和明确自己的导向,并让市场形成稳定预期,它在实际应对过程中有可能体现出来的软弱或者迟疑就有可能导致一些局部链条崩溃,而这个局部链条崩溃有可能在羊群效应的扩散之下产生相当大的冲击,尤其考虑到当实体经济层面有那么多的企业依赖高负债杠杆率来维持的时候。这一矛盾可能最值得担心的一个问题,换言之,局部支付承诺链条崩溃所导致的局部的甚至是全局性的危机,是否会发生、央行如何应对,可能是未来经济生活面临的最大不确定性。

      (11月18日发表于《第一财经日报》,基于研讨会会议发言)

      通宝推:mopfish,forger,
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