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主题:国债负利率的日本,越借钱政府赚得越多,当然不怕花钱 -- forger

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      • 家园 【商榷】其实真正的问题不是这个趋势

        其实泥轰真正的问题不是这个收入减少的趋势,而是怎样合理的降低老百姓对于收入/生活提高的预期。简单的比方就是由奢入简。如果真正接触过泥轰社会,他们年纪较大的人身上还是有一股精神的,那股带领他们经济腾飞的精神。再回到50年代的生活水平他们就熬不过去了吗?我觉得这部分人勒紧裤腰带是熬的过去的。痛苦的是年轻的一代,他们精神上被欧美消费文化腐蚀,物质上受到经济下行的夹击,这是最痛苦的。

        有什么能够很快的降低他们的预期,激发他们正在消失的奋斗潜能呢?最合理的就是战争+民族危机。

        所以我是部分赞同forger的观点,如果有战争和民族危机,泥轰政府还是有足够的理由去征收民间资产和有足够民间财富可以投入到军备。在加上他们的工业基础,还是相当可怕的。相反,如果没有战争这样的大事件的刺激,泥轰可能真的会在下降的通道上沉沦。一个有底蕴的民族,有时候也就像一个人,关键时刻起作用的是精神气。

        所以,不要创造一个激发泥轰的外部环境,让他们在下降通道中再沉沦20年吧。

        所以,多修炼内功,着眼于自己国家的将来,让下一个波谷更平坦一点。

        • 家园 长远看, CNY more bullish vs JPY

          墨虎's fallacy posts is about a subject of worth of tons of books;

          长远看, CNY is much more bullish than JPY, for the obvious reasons;

          the too obvious things are often likely fallacies;

          "长远看, CNY more bullish vs JPY", can you provide a operational model for chairman X based on that kind of people's daily stuff?

          can you as a trader, investor, a business man make decisions based on that stuff?

          how 长远 is 长远? if we can't define or quantify it, then it is useless, fallacies suspicious, because it does not provide any new information, and therefore valueless;

          1.

          as said, TG picked up soviet union version of Marxism as their "logic model" at right time, right place, and it worked out hugely well for TG.

          Marxism, Lennism actually "correctly" exposed the disequilibrium nature of capitalism, so did Keynesian & alike other white economists, human system as an open dissipative system is fundamentally unstable, part of reasons human brain consumes most of human system's energy in a struggle to deal with this inherent volatility, as an individual or as a group;

          still, in retrospect, Marxism, Lennism are more likely a fallacy ideology, because it did really contribute any new information to the humanity, its 砸烂旧世界 solution to fix the problem of capitalism is obviously more harmful than helpful to human system as a whole;

          china in long term will more likely do better than japan, and neither of them will fall apart as "volatility" may have suggested, and china's survival and growth in future will be related less and less to Marxism & Lennism.

          and again, 长远看 is a fallacy, "china will do well" is a fallacy as well, because it does not tell you any information about "china will do well relative to whom"? and how to get there? at all.

          2.

          how to get there? it looks like US is trying to make this AI economy fly off

          changshou:几何直观地介绍广义相对论的时空以及大爆炸模型 (0) 2013-07-03 19:23:56

          a very good series

          柯西超曲面,"全局双曲的时空 存在整体的坐标时间" [ 晓兵 ] 于:2013-07-03 19:23:56 复:3674028

          物理"因果结构存在"=柯西超曲面=全局双曲的时空 存在整体的坐标时间"

          "如果有一个 这样的整体的坐标时间 我们就有无穷多的其他的 整体的坐标时间。这是因为我们可以把观察者们的世界线 作连续的形变(只要形变幅度不大 就仍然是类时的)。

          这类时空 有整体的坐标时间和 对应于(该坐标时间的)某一时刻的空间部分(柯西超曲面)。于是 我们可以说 全局双曲的时空是 柯西超曲面随坐标时间演化而成的。"

          that tells us, as an individual or a group, we all get a share of this 柯西超曲面 related volatility, period;

          and how to reduce that volatility consumption of our energy, is often critical, or 出身未捷身先死 长使英雄泪满襟;

          in the past of not too long ago, human beings used to murder each other in tons of blood to figure out whose political ideology religious view are fallacies, not any more, now human social science 证伪 process is much less bloody, more of financial market 证伪, then you have 2008 black hole almost sucked in the whole world of capitalism.

          so, let's try AI 证伪, part of why AI economy now.

          in terms of social physics, 柯西超曲面 may exist, but it currently cost society tons of money in trying figuring this "柯西超曲面度量" thing out;

          and making things worse, even GR model may have underestimated the "volatility cost" in finding 柯西超曲面, in using its Riemann manifold 二次形 vs finsler manifold, 芬斯勒几何是一种没有二次型限制的黎曼几何,与变分学密切相关, Finsler度量是没有二次型限制的riemann度量, etc

          3.

          partially, "volatility cost" is associated with 战争是政治的继续 model, since capitalist economics can't handle a dissipative system of today's national and world economy, so Ben/Fed actually played 政治 role as Fed is part of uncle sam's 国家机器 anyway, and with that, Ben/Fed bailed out uncle sam out of its 2008 black hole.

          obviously, chairman X is trying using TGchina's 国家机器 to handle this likely coming bear market for china as well.

        • 家园 战争是政治的继续,

          泥轰, uncle sam vs Tgchina is a complicated game, what I care as an individual is the modeling methodology part of it, and hopefully with a good model, we can guess better about each of three players, their strategies, and the outcome of the game;

          1.

          比特币 "case study"

          @华尔街叛徒:资本市场一个最根本的问题就是“神马是无风险资产”。原来一直共同假设是美债,刚到Lehman的时候我很天真地质疑然后被无情嘲笑。现在大家逐渐开始接受这个质疑了,至少在理论层面上。基础货币和信用货币的分离可以一劳永逸解决这个问题。这才是比特币这个社会试验的根本价值,相对而言其

          回复@athosliu:well said, 战争是政治的继续, including 货币的战争, 比特币 is a great try as 基础货币和信用货币的分离, & that is its fundamental weakness as well, because 基础货币和信用货币的分离 is a fantancy only, without 政府

          回复@athosliu:政治 is greatly overlooked by capital market, what is Ben FED QE? it started as 政治 game, it is still a 政治 game, & awkwardly played out by finaniciers made politicians, those Fed guys; VS. china: TG=politicians made financiers playing a finance game, same trick

          回复@athosliu:政治家 is always the last resort to bail a society out of its crisis mode, US conventional 政治家 were fxxked up by its 公知 system, then you have FED to take over & play 政治家 without constraint of 公知 system, 政治家 as 战争家 of a nation, 本质上不受约束, 最终力

          2.

          I will come back with more comments, but for now, TG seems to have over played and over leveraged on its 政治 card, vs uncle sam, more of a more well rounded player, playing a portfolio of cards, and yes, there are tons of other factors, other than playing model/strategy part;

          TG, and Chinese as a nation, needs to learn how to play a portfolio of cards, and yes, you have to have a bounce of cards in your hand first, other than 政治 card.

      • 家园 "为啥要你死我活呢?“五十步笑百步?

        日本 picked "100% white" US/west as 日本's 领导, 200 years (?) ago,

        china picked "70% white" soviet union/Marxism as china's 领导, 100 years ago;

        五十步笑百步?

        • 家园 white 一旦得手, 往死里打TG, 给全世界当典型

          1.

          O "得道多助 失道寡助":1949, TG 得罪了老美 花1 晓兵 字10558 2013-09-08 07:11:01

          ......O 再谈TPP 花17 本嘉明 字1425 2013-09-08 07:44:41

          .......O a TG made 单色谱世界 花2 晓兵 字3189 2013-09-08 22:01:27

          .......O TPP所代表的“新美国主义”=新进化论, kind of 花1 晓兵 字422 2013-09-08 08:25:05

          ........O 有效配置是否只是老美的借口 花1 yaojiajun 字16 2013-09-08 08:33:17

          .........O 一旦得手, 往死里打, 给全世界当典型 花1 晓兵 字352 2013-09-08 08:48:17

          .........O 经济战也是心理战 yaojiajun 字36 2013-09-08 09:04:48

          .........O 四平八稳一点 花4 本嘉明 字336 2013-09-08 09:31:42

          .........O 磨洋工=最好,最不可行 花1 晓兵 字673 2013-09-08 12:14:59

          2.

          as I posted zillions times, the biggest risk of TGchina's authoritarian system is

          1) information incomplete

          to be brief, market's algo is almost like that brain neuron network algo, it is almost like a general relativity theory model

          it is non linear, therefore every 与环境因素有关的开关 has to be traded as one of "神经网络中高达10的15次方个突触的所有具体连接" by market as a collective information processing system, to figure out 测地线最小作用路径 for the system to survive and grow;

          obviously, this means any local 伟光正=BS, and there is no an universal global 伟光正, period, or there is one, but we have not figured out yet, like GOD, it is somewhere, ever changing, "phantom of opera".

          in physics, similar ising model of 3 dimensions is still challenging humanity's science, we can't figure out an analytical solution for that, we have to go market's way, or statistics physics

          2) a decision making model with potentially a lot of fallacies

          3)

          those are present operational risks to TG, as to the long term risk of brain development BS stuff, nobody cares for now;

          but operational risk could hurt you, baby

          3.

          white 一旦得手, 往死里打TG, 给全世界当典型

          this is real, not a fallacy;

          what to do?

          my guess:

          1) X knows all the above 1& 2, in the sense, that he knows china needs a fundamental market reform, and a political system reform as well, and you have to do both in a comprehensive way;

          2) if he does that, he may better do it all together with a grand deal of getting united with 李光耀 连斩 as a 中国邦联

          3) X discussed that with his red gen II club memembers

          and they all said, fxxk 李光耀 连斩

          4) X gambles that he can model after M's model with modern revisions of whatever, and survive the risk of "white 一旦得手, 往死里打TG", then he will be ok

          4.

          again, guess:

          1) jpy to uncle sam/white: let all jump in shorting TGchina, yesterday;

          2) uncle same to jpy: take it slow, no hurry, my fed QEed economy still sucks, your ABE QEed economy is even worse, let play this political ideological fuss with uncle X, with some military smokes, that way, we keep cooking this low but persistent volatility to stress out uncle X and those yellow Asian nearby, that way, they will do more business with USD & JPY, less with CNY;

          3) uncle sam to jpy: besides, TG is still largely supported by PLA, CAS, and almost "all" of Chinese people, a very few 公知 folks still left, but barely breathing, so if you attack TG, you are attacking Chinese people, Chinese nation, you should never do that, and you can't do it anyway

          4)

          jpy to uncle sam: ok, got you, let's play money game, sucking it out of TGchina

          5.

          meantime, the world is still "life goes on"

          "神经网络中高达10的15次方个突触的所有具体连接"

          obviously, in the emerging AI economy powered by uncle sam's goog, fb, msft, orcl, etc, every 连接 is a trade, a business, in a AI filtered & much more effective & efficient new way of economic transactions;

          with that human labor productivity could have a quantum jump, 生产可能性边界 to be expanded both internally and externatlly, human capitalism to grow out of deflation trap, into a complete new phase;

          6.

          where would USD & JPY be in that new world? that is likely what uncle sam cares most, most likely, and JPY is figuring that out too;

          as to X & his red gen II club buddies, there is not much you can do with them anyway, as long as Chinese people like them, and as long as we can buy low from & sell high to china, long live chairman X, his "事业正在上升阶段", uncle sam told jpy before going to Beijing?

          this old white guy speaks very condescendingly in talking to one yellow guy about the other yellow guy, it is almost insulting to all Asian yellow folks, period.

          but again, once you yellows are divided, and even more divided in subgroup of Chinese yellows, what do you get from white wolf/gang of united ones?

          they dump their BS into your mouth, ass, period, filling you up, sucking money out of you, period, and there is nothing else, kind of;

          and it looks like white's self confidence, esteem, ego are coming back, quite bit.

          ------------

          [PDF]

          Neural networks in neuroscience - Universidad de Granada

          www.ugr.es/~sam/index_archivos/Overview_neural_nets.pdf

          by S Johnson - Related articles

          Long axons, ending in terminals which form synapses to the dendrites which ... considered was basically an Ising model in which the spins were substituted for “ ...

          Principles of Neural Coding - Page 545 - Google Books Result

          books.google.com/books?isbn=1439853304

          Rodrigo Quian Quiroga, Stefano Panzeri - 2013 - Medical

          ... all the above, we restricted the treatment to the simplest kind of kinetic Ising model, for pedagogical ... It describes synaptic and membrane potential dynamics.

          Learning algorithm for a neural network with binary synapses ...

          link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2FBF01307854

          by H Khler - 1990 - Cited by 32 - Related articles

          A learning mechanism for neural networks with binary synapses is defined and

        • 家园 " white" as 日本的"领导"

          again, I have posted zillions times on this subject. I think this is an important issue for the future development of Chinese society, worth tons of discussion & books, although it seems fewer and fewer people even care anymore, those who can afford, they send their children abroad, those who cannot afford, well, help your children out in whatever ways.

          1.

          " white" as 日本的"领导" was a result of a 心甘情愿 brainwashing of jpy by whites, started 200 years ago;

          why 心甘情愿? because it is logical, and there is no logic other than that of white, I have posted zillion times here in this forum;

          some mainland academic guys compared brainwashing of uncle sam vs that of TG

          uncle sam "teaches" you "logic", then with that logic, you "naturally" come to the conclusions or points uncle sam wants you remember, and you do remember it most likely, because now you have studied very hard and well, and understood the "logic" well, really "got it", and you may be even able to teach it to others.

          and we all know how uncle TG does his "brutal" brainwashing.

          2.

          影响中国人创新的重要文化障碍-----尊重的稀缺 花30 罗化生 字4046 2012-09-03 20:41:42

          Personal attacks 花4 墨虎 字164 2013-09-30 22:15:34

          ..O 同意。现代中国人普遍性的缺乏基本逻辑思维能力。 花1 Galleon 字0 2013-11-03 22:14:13

          ...O 什么是基本逻辑思维能力 草春200 字0 2013-11-03 23:13:23

          ....O 能够识别语言中的各种fallacy 花3 墨虎 字335 2013-11-04 11:03:31

          .....O 非常同意。逻辑和哲学,是现代科学的基石, 花2 Galleon 字388 2013-11-05 14:16:24

          ......O 哲学的培养是个艰辛的过程,无异于对一个大脑进行格式化 花1 捣江湖 字290 2013-11-06 03:57:48

          .......O 逻辑也不一定需要开课 Fuhrer 字315 2013-11-06 04:43:57

          ........O 还是需要的,真研究起来还很复杂。中国人好像是做事说话好像 捣江湖 字208 2013-11-07 00:42:17

          ..O 逻辑的稀缺其实是想象力的稀缺 花2 Fuhrer 字213 2013-10-14 10:23:40

          ...O 这个我觉得你总结反了,是逻辑的缺失,导致了想象力缺失。 花1 Galleon 字323 2013-11-05 14:03:38

          ....O 说的对 Fuhrer 字173 2013-11-05 20:00:02

          ...O 信口开河,不知所谓 花1 草春200 字56 2013-11-03 23:16:47

          3.

          obviously, china as a nation is still "mentally or logically" confused, with all kinds of fallacies flying all over the places, such as "宪政" "军队党领导", 辩证法, etc

          can any one write a solid AI based software with potential multiple commercial utilization values other than as a political "joke", based on those 辩证法? how do you teach young Chinese students of those 辩证法?

          if you can't brainwash your own people well with your 辩证法, how do you export your "value system" to other Asian counties with your CNY to be their reserve currency on the way, and then QE them?

          4.

          before TG/china figures out a new set and "non-斜路" logic to replace those of white, here (from wiki) is the

          List of fallacies

          From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

          Jump to: navigation, search

          For specific popular misconceptions, see List of common misconceptions.

          A fallacy is incorrect argument in logic and rhetoric resulting in a lack of validity, or more generally, a lack of soundness. Fallacies are either formal fallacies or informal fallacies.

          5.

          basically, white "logic" has to be a "linear" one, even modern physics/math's all the "non-linear" models still carry a linear core;

          if it is linear, then we are not too far away from meeting logic's requirement such as quantification.

          an example, 宇宙真理, 伟光正,代表人民根本利益长远利益最大利益, 华夏正能量, etc, may be good propaganda stuff at people's daily level, they should not be part of X modelling for serious decision making at national level, they are essentially non-linear, hard to quantify among their other "logic" issues.

          even as propaganda stuff, they are loosing its effectiveness apparently, & TG needs to figure out how to compete with uncle sam's logic based brainwashing.

          6.

          so, an international QE is not just a navy aircraft carrier powered unloading of whatever made in china into ashore of nearby Asian countries, such as those 高铁换大米 alike.

          To QE other nations is not easy at all, that is one of reasons why it is so profitable.

          Does X model have a long term & well integrated plan/strategy for china to grow and be eventually capable of colonizing other nations by tons of CNY flood?

          if not, then you have to colonize your own people.

          • 家园 "日本侵略伤害,只要不涉及到与美国相关, 日本人不反思"

            1.

            http://www.ccthere.com/alist/3826752

            "日本在2战后亲美的程度,有目共睹。这说明,日本人在现实面前,是能够吸取一定教训的,所谓服强。这就直接证明日本人是有那个脑筋进行一定程度的历史反思的。这也是对您的日本人没有反思能力的一个日本式的反证。

            但是日本人的反思是有选择性的,对日本侵略造成伤害,只要不涉及到与美国相关,日本人能不反思就不反思。这是自私基础上放大自我现实利益导向的行为。

            考虑到日本文化的共性,在一个体系内同一文化的基础上做出两种不同选择,这证明日本人的反思是选择性。其根源只能用私利第一来解释。"

            2.

            I was reading 夕曦's post about brain/gene stuff, then coming across the following one

            【讨论】我对《道听途说的原子弹轰炸的故事》的反思

            讨论下那篇文章的摄魂术 花326 diamond 字5219 2012-12-19 00:43:28

            是人人上的翟老师,强烈推荐去看看他的文章 [ diamond ]

            翟文喆——法学教授,摄魂术的提法来自他的系列文章“赫敏为什么不能嫁给哈利——《哈利波特》中的历史、文化与政治”,令人叹服,大开眼界:人人链接。

            regardless of the political positions involved, it is a good discussion about brain washing.

            3.

            a tough battle for TG/china vs jpy/usa etc in coming years?

            for whatever reasons, TG has made TG=china, in mainland, that is almost a "fact", vs. an "overseas" china of hk, tw, 新加坡, etc of about 100 million Chinese overseas

            4.

            what is the point?

            the point is all about modern modeling methodology, about potentially a nation's strategy formation, etc;

            as posted, "没有了祖国你将什么都不是" (《没有了祖国你将什么都不是》贴文引网友热传

            新华网 2013-12-03 09:00:03)

            this kind of stuff is potentially a fallacy thing which can harm your model, potentially your gaming strategy as well;

            so far, X model plays that card very subtly & carefully, still, what is the remaining value of that card? even domestically;

            what & where is the "total package" for china to move forward as a society? other than No 斜路stuff?

            and of course, there is really no value for that 没有了祖国你将什么都不是 card internationally, & likely knowing that, china did not really make a lot of fuss on 《开罗宣言》 things.

            5.

            money talks

            政治局定调明年经济工作:坚持稳中求进要求出台新型城镇化规划

            和讯 2013-12-04 01:23:00

            where is money? even monetizing 城镇化 is very challenging itself, etc.

            6.

            a 单色平面波 mind is harmful, to yourself first;

            so regardless of one's political position, here in ccthere.com, any non-单色平面波 point view should be encouraged, it is just good for you, again, regardless of your political position;

            avoiding logical fallacy whenever & wherever possible.

            7.

            I do feel as a humble individual that china as a nation is facing tough issues economically first, & other issues as well, both domestically & internationally;

            and most importantly, what is modeling methodology & strategy formation at national level?

            can anybody articulate that other than those useless political slogans?

            yes, china will be ok, regardless, but again, does china care about "cost", "risk", "return", future competitiveness at all?

            so far, I still see a largely 单色平面波 mindset/thinking model all over the places in chine, heavily weighted on 正义感情天下为公 etc,

            obviously much more domestically oriented, still quite bit internationally as well;

            but, outside of china=a "not china at all" world, 正义感情=a "fallacy" almost, no monetary value, no money, no honey, period;

            then outside of 正义感情 etc,where is the brain power of Chinese nation? how Chinese as a nation brew & develop its brain power from yesterday?

            as said, I have posted on this issue since almost day 1 here in this forum, I hope eventually china will realize that in front of a rapidly "progressing" global world, a group of people or a nation's 正义感情=大刀, it surely looks nice, it jacks up your emotion, but 大刀 is still a 大刀, it is not a match in front of AI powered 坦克;

            yes, china is 追赶西方"坦克" with a lot of progresses, after that, china willthen 追赶西方 "AI powered 坦克", etc, a 追赶西方 game forever for china?

    • 家园 难说

      点看全图

      外链图片需谨慎,可能会被源头改

      点看全图

      外链图片需谨慎,可能会被源头改

      • 难说
        家园 fallacies: we all love it

        1.

        墨虎's post on fallacies & the related discussions are very interesting;

        fallacies could be fatal, but we all love it, intuitively;

        2.

        why?

        one possible explanation, human being as a dissipative system is hungry for "short cut" to success, and fallacies are very often seemingly offering "short cut" solutions to the tough problems of human's survival & growth

        夕曦:【原创】教育探索(六)—大脑神经网络是如何形成的 2012-01-31 20:20:16

        DNA里携带的是一种分形的自组织规则。 [ 拿不准 ] 于:2012-01-31 20:20:16 复:3633311

        这种规则中肯定有与环境因素有关的开关。

        这也是形成多样型的基础。

        3.

        collectively, human system as a open & dissipative system relies on exchanging information & energy with environment for its survival & growth, therefore, every fallacy as potentially 与环境因素有关的开关 has to be tried by somebody, for good or bad, with the result feeding back to the system, in both theory & practice, likely more of 舍身炸碉堡, in the non-linear human game.

        as to the luck of that particular person, system does not care as much, somebody has to be QEed.

        that 与环境因素有关的开关 is almost the "量子化" concept of human 引力场.

        4.

        大投资 (no "personal" attack, which is meaningless anyway), 走向深蓝 universe, led by 大公无私为光正 are basically all kind of fallacies, as some kind "北京共识发展模型" 开关, obviously very appealing to all of us, including those whites, so is the "china century" story.

        well, if after all, "北京共识发展模型" is nothing but full of fallacies even with 事后诸葛亮 discounting, a tons of 生产税 made by TG in 大投资 jump has to be paid back to market;

        so, X model has to figure that part out, likely most of 生产税 are already gone, so X model has to grab money somewhere to pay the bills.

        and the fastest making money trick is still Ponzi game style fallacies, 城镇化?

        again, smart traders in & out of TG systems know how to arbitrage fallacies, which is an another theme of my posts here in this forum since day 1.

        -------------

        http://blog.ifeng.com/article/31105019.html

        居民收入跑输GDP乃官商勾结作祟

        2013-11-14 18:18:19

        国家统计局近日发布报告称,2012年城镇居民人均可支配收入24,565元,比1978年增长71倍,年均增长13.4%,扣除价格因素,年均增长7.4%。“居民收入35年增长71倍”这一消息引广泛关注。但实际上,过去35年,中国GDP年均增速高达9.8%,高于居民收入增速2.4个百分点。

        与之相对应,居民收入占GDP的比重也逐年下降。从改革以来最高水平1985年时的56.18%下降为1997年的55%,再到2007年的43.42%,22年下降了近13个百分点。2008年金融危机后下降更加严重,2009年降为41.8%。目前停留在四成左右。

        为什么中国居民的收入增速一直跑不赢GDP,经济发展创造的财富哪里去了?这要从GDP的构成说起。

        GDP有几种公认的算法,即生产法、收入法和支出法。用收入法计算GDP比较好理解上述问题,即:GDP=劳动者报酬+固定资产折旧+生产税净额+营业盈余。

        劳动者报酬是居民收入的主要构成部分。过去35年,GDP增速比居民收入增速高出2.4个百分点,则说明,固定资产折旧、税、企业利润三者之和的增远速高于9.8%,才能弥补劳动者报酬拖的后腿。尤其是税,2005年的GDP比1994年增加280%,税收收入却比1994年增加461%。这意味着11年间,税收增速要比GDP增速高出大约8个百分点。

        高投资是财富分配向资本转移的另一大原因,固定资产折旧不断吞噬GDP。从1980年之后的32年间,中国全社会固定资产投资由910亿元,增长到2011年的31.15万亿元,增长了342倍,年均增长20%,是GDP增速的两倍。

        高投资既为政府提供了税收,又可提取等比例的资产折旧,这就将压缩GDP蛋糕中的劳动者报酬,居民收入增速落后GDP增速成为必然。

        政府要税收,资本要收益,官商一拍即合,有时不分彼此,亦官亦商,这是中国“经济奇迹”的最大动力,没有之一。双方合作的成果体现在名目繁多的工程项目中,这就是为什么改革开放几十年,中国改成了大工地,靠投资铺摊子拉动经济的原因。小打小闹的项目满足不了权力的胃口,上大项目才能让他们过瘾。凡被查处的大贪官,没有一个不是栽在项目和以项目豢养的女人中,刘志军、李春城、李嘉廷以及他们身后的女人丁书苗、何燕、“公共情妇”李薇。

        高投资造成的后果也牵制了投资本身,严重的产能过剩无法在内部消化,因为居民收入上不去。习近平说,改革由问题倒逼产生。中国当前面对的问题,表现在财富分配严重失衡、生态环境恶化,不改革,经济发展、社会稳定都将难以为继。

        • 家园 "jpy"孙正义: 2018年以后电脑会超过人脑

          i will come back with more comments, for now:

          1.

          夕曦:【原创】教育探索(六)—大脑神经网络是如何形成的 2012-01-31 20:20:16

          DNA里携带的是一种分形的自组织规则。 [ 拿不准 ] 于:2012-01-31 20:20:16 复:3633311

          这种规则中肯定有与环境因素有关的开关。

          这也是形成多样型的基础。

          2.

          软银创始人孙正义:从终端与云端变化看未来30年

          2013-12-04 13:12论坛虎嗅网

          .

          .

          关键字:孙正义 云计算

            在座的各位,大家好。我是来自软银的孙正义,请大家多多指教。

            “向世界挑战”,这是我对我们公司的期望,今日聚集在此的诸位都就职于在世界市场活跃的企业,也都是很有抱负的人。最近,在安倍经济政策的影响下,日本的经济再次显现出了迎来成长期的态势,在刺激经济发展这个意义上,有许多的财政上的举措,也会有经济成长的战略规划,然而,利用一时的财政政策,却无法让经济成长的话,就没有意义。在这个意义上,日本经济的高速成长的时代,正是日本家电和汽车产业的创业者们开始大规模向世界进军的时代。在最近的20年里,日本经济增长长期停滞,还面临人口减少和少子化问题,进军世界是必要之举。

            要么数码化,要么灭亡

            现在的状况是:数字化之于许多人,并不是主动进行的,而是走投无路被逼进行的。

            特别是最近,日本的家电产业在持续和赤字苦战。我认为,其原因就是数码化的动作太慢了。仅仅组装零件,就仅仅只是电子化。日本制造的硬件非常轻薄,故障率低,这是日本的传家手艺,这也面临数码化不足的问题。

            要让软件和硬件融合,一定要活用云技术和大数据,也就一定要积极地进行数码化。

            “向世界挑战”,我想将这个作为今日的主题,首先从我自身来说,今年我们软银会更进一步向世界挑战,我们已经开始着手了,收购美国的Sprint,我们也很不安,有很多意见分歧、也有很多曲折,虽然收购价稍高,但最终还是收购完成了。

            我们是销售额排世界前三的企业,至今也在日本排第2、第3。我们引以为傲的服务排在第3位,整个集团服务的用户数和销售额排在第2,但是,在国内第2第3先暂放一边,重要的是在世界排第3,用户数在全球的数量远远超多docomo,逼近美国第一的威讯。

            这么看来,平时与我们做交易或者今后有此打算的各位,软银将Sprint收归旗下,能得到什么呢?虽说软银在全世界的据点并不少,但是Sprint在全世界有30个据点,用网络连接了165个国家。对于在世界市场活跃、或是今后有此计划的各位来说,软银·Sprint联军可以帮助你们,将美国排名第三的Sprint收于麾下,我们的联军可以在全世界大展宏图。

            虽有挑战,但定能打开未来之门。没有任何挑战就能面对未来的情况,要么是前人栽树后人乘凉,要么纯属运气,恐怕也不能长久。但是主动持续挑战着地各位,是自己开拓自己的未来的,我认为一定能取得好的结果。

            我差不多在3年多以前,提出了软银的“30年愿景”。第一次提出“30年愿景”的时候,是创业之时,我第一次举行公司早会,除我之外公司员工只有2人,在早会上我差不多说了半个小时的未来愿景,两个员工都睁着眼睛听,觉得自己身在一个奇怪的公司,两星期过去后2个人就辞职了。

            进行长长的演讲述说公司愿景,会给员工留下心理阴影,所以我把愿景封印在心里了。创业经过了30年,我再一次把这个问题摆在员工面前,把至今以来的30年愿景述说出来。

            终端之变:单片机的晶体管数量在2018年会超过人脑

            一开始,我迷茫于“30年之后会怎样”这个问题,然而越是迷茫就越要往远处看,就越能看清洪流中的未来。我们考虑长远一些,彻底考虑一下300年后的人类的生活状态、社会、技术的进化,大约花费了一年聚集国内外的才智来考虑这个问题,今天大致说一下其中的一部分。

            单片机是晶体管做成的,晶体管靠近和分开,形成了电流,脑细胞也是神经细胞靠近分开、进行记忆与思考,也就是2进制,用微弱的电流记忆和思考。晶体管也是二进制,脑细胞和电脑芯片完全是同一理论。由此推断,在大约20年前,人类的脑细胞数量是30亿个,按照二进制就有300亿个组合。300亿个,单片机里的晶体管数量何时能超越这个数,如果我们算一下的话,答案是2018年。

            按照摩尔定律,机能一定会不断进化。而人类的细胞从4000年前到现在就没变过。

            从现在起2000年后脑细胞的数量也不会变,而单片机的晶体管数量在2018年会超过人脑,我们再想想30年后会怎样,2018年之后的30年后、更进一步,想想300年后。300年后,就是10的60次方倍,远远超过脑细胞的数量,至今为止人类是地球上用脑细胞工作的生命体中数量最多的,而拥有超越人类机能之力的,是单片机。

            晶体管蕴含许多可能性

            我们认为烦恼、想象、创造是人类的特权,电脑今后也将拥有自学能力,电脑自己编程的时代将会到来,今后的世界将像是科幻小说一样,脑构造计算机一定会诞生,能比人类更加敏锐地洞察和发明,搭载这种计算机的机器人会超过人类,不与其共存就没有未来,我相信人类与优秀的机器人能够幸福地共存。

            人类目前认为不可能而放弃的领域,像灾害的救助、看护、医疗、教育等等,都可以由搭载脑构造计算机的机器人来帮助。

            在从事通信事业的软银看来,优秀的电脑无线连接网络,通过芯片和人类进行脑内交流,只需在脑中思想就能与对方通信,就如同传心术一样。

            30年前,手机还没有出现的时候,我就想到过像如今的智能机一样,平时随身携带的机器,最近的可穿戴设备,如手表、眼镜也相继出现了。

            另外,医疗也会大大进步,平均寿命200岁的时代终将到来,300年前人类的平均寿命是35岁,大多数人因为战争和疾病早早地死亡。300年后人类的平均寿命是200岁,70~80岁都会被说年轻,未来越想象越觉得接近科幻小说,充满哲学、宗教等等争论的话题。

            然而一边想象着300年后的世界,一边烦恼之后,再次考虑“30年后”这个话题,会觉得基本上是无聊而理所当然的世界。会让人觉得“这样的程度是理所当然的”,讨论300年后搭载脑构造计算机的机器人的时候,人们的意见多种多样,30年后的事与之比起来似乎太平常、引不起议论,但关键问题就在这理所当然的30年后。

            首先是“信息大爆炸”,比如,我们想象一下30年后的iPhone会如何,与现在同样价格的CPU的能力大约会是现在的100万倍。

            虽然不知到那时候,iPhone还存不存在,但30年后的智能机平均的记忆容量会是现在的100万倍,通信速度是300万倍。

            100万倍是什么概念呢,那是装入了是人类大脑10万倍的晶体管。

            2018年以后电脑会超过人脑,30年后就是远远超过,这样的话,就能够放进5000亿首歌曲、3.5亿年份的报纸。这样的“超级智能机”今后将会出现,这样的终端本地的处理能力已经如此,云端会如何呢?这又完全不一样了,通信速度达到现在的300万倍的话,本地和云端之间的连接速度几乎可以忽略不计,无限大的云端将把地球大大拓宽,也会改变人们的生活方式。

            云会成为人类最大的资产

            所有的一切都会成为生活记录,被保存在云端。 “实时翻译眼镜” 30年前就取得了专利,当然远在谷歌眼镜之前,今后的云技术中,在通信的瞬间完成自动翻译会变成理所当然的事。教育当然也会大大进化,全世界的孩子能与世界各地的孩子说话、语言不通也能自动翻译。医疗也会发展到高水平,无论你是住在孤岛还是住在沙漠,也能瞬间接受世界最尖端的医疗服务。工作方式也会进化,能瞬间连接许多东西,生产效率大大提高……云会成为人类最大的资产。

            移动设备的流行仅仅只是一个开始

            软银也开始将云技术作为最大资产而活用起来,云和大数据相混合,能形成更加有益的形式,为市场服务、解决问题。软银首先从自己开始,活用大数据,解决自身的问题。首先改善信号,为了更好服务软银的用户,我们让信号更良好,建立更有效率的基站。

            我们做了一件世界首创的事,独立花费了1个月时间,收集了7.5件的数据,数据从智能机App上获得并分析,用户网络的改善。用户在何处、何时、几次接入网络、连上了没有……我们进行了种种分析,也分析了竞争对手的用户的连接状态。这是世界首次,人们在哪个店里会进行怎样的行动、周五的18点到周日的10点都干了什么……一切都用数据进行分析。

            我认为这样才能进行真正的改善,才能分析哪里有问题,障碍在哪里。举个例子,我们常在IT杂志上看到“调查了200个地方”“问了1000个人”,然后进行分析,但从没看过分析7.5亿人的杂志,因为这样很花钱,也没有相应的技术。Docomo的top2机型现在有多少连接上了,au的哪个机型连接率不好,我们比他们都清楚,这为我们改善通信服务帮了大忙,能堂堂正正地在电视广告里说“我们改善了信号”。再卖给别人之前自己先试试,能不能真的派上用场,这是软银的文化。把时下流行的概念比如云比如大数据先自己彻底活用,让我们的服务改善真的具备科学的数据分析背景,才能用有限的设备投资与别人竞争。

            另一个活用大数据的例子,就是我们之前就开始做的,用户能不能实际体会到信号改善,我们通过分析推特的大数据来把握。

            软银在工作方式上也配合云技术,率先进行了改变。iPhone推出至今已有4、5年了,我们给全部公司员工都配了一台,iPad出来的时候也给所有人配了,全员可以随身携带、连接云端,利益增长并不是偶然的事,对于未来的云,不活用iPhone是不行的,我们无论在何时何地都能进行各种各样的工作,邮件也通过Gmail Cloud化了,各种各样的报告也Cloud化了。

            不仅仅是我们,和我们合作的企业也在活用这些。JR上配了7000台iPad mini,无论何时何地都能阅读喜爱的内容,医药公司利用视频提供医生的情报、misawa home(房地产公司)利用iPad进行工程管理、三和shutter也在工作中引入了1400台iPad,利用视频等手段,让人们能实际体验闸门开关的速度。

            软银公司内已经实行无纸化,也不用打印机,除了契约性文件和向政府提供的文件,已经全面无纸化了,开会也是用视频介绍,公司内有专门制作视频的团队,presentation的方式也改变了。利用Google Apps在世界各处商谈……

            向世界挑战,我们看见了新的风景,是不挑战则见不到的风景。今后让我们继续我们的征程,正在积极进行数码化的企业,让我们继续挑战信息的革命,世界的工作方式也会发生大的变革。

            为什么要行动呢?只因这是为人们提供幸福而不得不进行的事。

            这就是我今天的演讲。

          原文出自【比特网】,转载请保留原文链接:http://cloud.chinabyte.com/news/193/12795193.shtml

          • 家园 领域

            1.也许孙正义出来收购是减少日元贬值的影响。sprint仍然问题多多。明年这个时候大概会被tmobile在规模上超越。

            2.我觉得孙正义对技术的发展过于乐观了。他的预测完全是线性的,但是材料,电池,无线通信速率等都是有物理上限的。

            3.我们身处一个大数据的时代,仅仅能够辨识fallacy都是不够的。很快,各种Statistical paradoxes将会扑面而来。神将披上统计的外衣,以例外为武器,消灭强者和国家。

            4.领域,各个民族都在构建自己的领域。

            whites以逻辑为出发点,开拓领域,并征服了物质位面。在精神位面,他们已经为逻辑找到了起点,那是一系列共识(white only)和统计结果(包括对white有用的Statistical paradoxes)。在此基础上,通过逻辑构建了价值观和法律体系。遇到在精神位面无法征服的,就从物质位面加以消灭。

            对于非white,在别人的领域中作战是无法胜利的。要想构建自己的领域,就要找到自己的共识并真正理解各种统计结果。以此为基础通过严谨的逻辑搭建自己的领域。还有就是别被人家物质消灭。

            TG试图在物质位面学习运用逻辑,在精神位面学习运用宗教。就像日本,一方面在物质位面印钱,一方面在精神位面购买极低回报的国债。真是矛盾啊。

            • 领域
              家园 中日民族"量子性质严重"

              1.

              an example of connected 大脑神经网络" possible 量子效應 "

              1)

              I was thinking about your posts about fallacies, then 奥卡姆剃刀...then the whole white's thinking regime or thinking models

              奥卡姆剃刀(Occam's Razor, Ockham's Razor),又称“奥坎的剃刀”,是由14世纪逻辑 ... 嚴格的說,它們應該被稱為吝嗇定律(Law of parsimony),或者稱為朴素原則。

              then the Chinese as an language, then your posts about Chinese language as a 表意语言

              "我就是反对表意语言。英语虽然不是表意语言,但是一些词组是表意的,我也反对。因为表意成分不容易淘汰掉,即使错了还能长期存在。

              人家日常不一定会用到上百万的英文单词,那些不被用到的,就在日常交流中自然淘汰了。

              到是中文,即使某些概念被证明错误,但是由于语言的表意特性,这些对应的字仍然会承载着错误的概念顽强的在日常用语中出现,造成中文中垃圾众多,垃圾概念众多的问题。中文是一种只能继承不能淘汰的语言。

              比如“心想事成”这个词。大家都知道“心”不能想,“脑”才能想。可是这个词人们还是在用。想演化吗?要知道把“心”当“脑”用的词又何止几十个,能一一演化吗?就算你把这些词都演化了,那么“想”下面的“心”字边又怎么办?

              所以,汉语就是一锅粥,主流语言中最落后的存在。将来,不知道,是中国人淘汰汉语,还是中国人跟着汉语被淘汰。但是自然选择下,汉语必被淘汰"

              2)

              then I was thinking about how not to waste our brains since most of the time, 语言 is some kind of 热响应, in terms of macroscopic thermodynamics, where most of the time individual 分子's 热响应 does not really contribute any new information to the system' "logic processing core algorism", since individual 分子's 热响应 is largely well predicted by system level's equations already, in terms of 配分函数统计物理 models.

              but what if we are also possibly in a 量子/介观物理 environment?

              witten1:【原创】量子生物学 I 摘要和前言 2013-01-01 15:21:49

              http://www.cchere.com/article/3830274

              a very good series, I hope it can be continued.

              2.

              what is the point?

              the point is, if, and very likely, most of the time, we are kind of somehow doing straightforward brain 热响应 "BS" near macroscopic equilibrium state, then we may well be better off relaxing, going out jogging, than scratching our heads arguing with each other, because such a debate most likely are full of fallacies, and can be cut into zeros by 奥卡姆剃刀, then why wasting our lives?

              "没有新的热庫=溫度不變, 能量交換,sys 自我内耗 "

              but, human system does need to do a people's mass brain war in searching potentially 新的热庫, so system will jack up all of us to jump into this people's mass brain war, 生的伟大死的光荣, with most of us 为人做嫁几时休, likely paving the road to success for those lucky & real innovators to come out and smile from ear to ear in Tiananmen Square, Beijing, 1949, a recent china drama/story as a special case of humanity's 达尔文进化论 in general, etc

              3.

              中日民族"量子性质严重"

              obviously, as seen in Chinese language and its culture, 中日民族"量子性质严重"

              as such, more likely Chinese are more crowded living together in some kind of 费米子 quantum system, vs white more of classic macroscopic 自由分子运动, "enjoying" 气体分子平均自由程, vs all of yellows crowded in a wave function of Chinese nation in a 势场 almost exclusively decided and managed by a powerful centralized political elite leadership;

              and living in a quantum system as such, we "热"响应 with each other more actively, often have 团结 problems since day 1, with each other as an individual, as a group, as a nation.

              and obviously, “不确定性” is a 先天性 feature of such a system, as featured in our languages, thinking models, value system, etc;

              and that “不确定性” has to be hedged out at system level by 修身齐家治国平天下 etc as a social value, and at operational level, we have to all subject ourselves to the centralized leadership of social elite who have managed to survive and grow out of the ever-going brutal 修身齐家治国平天下 game of 达尔文进化论, Chinese version.

              4.

              possibly out of that "logic", TG fxxks 李光耀连斩中国联邦 every time, and 中日民族"量子性质严重"= a love and hate, more hate than love between 中日, forever

              5.

              meanwhile, the world of humanity is still moving forward likely with largely US innovated and powered AI economy to cut the brain waste of humanity with AI 奥卡姆剃刀, locally and globally, for individuals and for society, while jacking up even more violently all of us in searching of 新的热庫 for humanity,

              and regardless of 中日民族"量子性质严重" , and the forever "love and hate" game between the two.

              just manage that game well, you 中日民族"量子" baby(:).

              6.

              obviously, "量子性质严重" has its "good" side as well, for now, let's focusing on the "evil" side of it.

              "中文语言的表意特性", as an another "markov chain" in our brain, tends to fool our brain in thinking we have unique and innovative 意 in our thinking, and obviously, most of the time, and eventually, 奥卡姆剃刀 will 正交分解 our self-perceived 创意新意 into a series of 基 already known to the system, all the arguments=0, with very little value added, if any.

              in the likely a quantum system of 中日民族"量子性质严重" filled with 糾纏態疊加態, such a standard 奥卡姆剃刀 "正交分解" process just takes longer time, costing systme much more money, than US/west?

              基(線性代數) - 维基百科,自由的百科全书

              在线性代数中,基(也称为基底)是描述、刻画向量空间的基本工具。向量空间的基是它的一个特殊的子集,基的元素称为基向量。向量空间中任意一个元素,都可以唯一

              "相对来说拼音文字可能就比较稳定,在一个文明中使用的频率与普及度会更高,与语言的同步发展关系也更紧密。"

              7.

              从达尔文主义者眼中看去 [ Fuhrer ]

              "脑神经的研究得出结论,的确人(包括动物)对图像的观察与敏感度更高更细致,因此这个文字最初出现一律是图形文字是有道理的"

              as such, some kind of "图形文字+拼音文字" as a some kind of AI 拼"基"文字 may eventually be figured out as a standard international 文字 or thinking and communicating medium.

              --------

              http://www.ccthere.com/alist/3903480

              【原创】近代自然科学禀性探讨(二,三) 花16 witten1 字1733 2013-08-12 01:22:38

              ..O 呃,见一个问题 月下 字14 2013-09-01 00:11:52

              ...O 伊粟: 数学是自然科学社会科学赌博神学都可以使用的工具 花2 晓兵 字9631 2013-09-01 10:30:33

              ...O 数学不是科学 witten1 字0 2013-09-01 10:29:43

              ..O 逻辑理性的“分析”:“格物”得法,“致知”系统 晓兵 字2223 2013-08-15 17:08:37

              ...O 我猜 witten1 字58 2013-08-15 22:15:43

              ....O 没有新的热庫=溫度不變, 能量交換,sys 自我内耗 花6 晓兵 字2282 2013

              没有新的热庫=溫度不變, 能量交換,sys 自我内耗 [ 晓兵 ]

              -------

              http://www.ccthere.com/alist/3847181

              从达尔文主义者眼中看去 [ Fuhrer ]

              下面是维基百科的定义:

              文字的发展经历了“图画文字-表意文字-表音文字”这几个阶段。要注意的是,这几个阶段只是表现了各种不同文字出现的顺序及相互关系,并不等于后者就一定比前者优越。

              最后这句话反过来读,就是说这个顺序反映了人类文字的发展变化。咬字眼的话,达尔文不叫“进化”,叫“演化”,那么就是说文字的变化主要是因应人类不同文化中需求而演化出的不同形式。读过进化论的都知道,多样性是进化(或者演化)的一个重要因素。那么这个拼音文字的出现,应该是大量不同语言文字共同生活混合竞争的结果,就是发展程度差不多的文明之间经常相互碰撞的结果。

              中文大约经历的竞争文明多数是自身没有发展到出现文字的,基本上是“同化”对方的结果,因此这个进化的作用不显著,变异比率不高,因此始终是在最原始的图形文字的基础上没有大的变化。

              脑神经的研究得出结论,的确人(包括动物)对图像的观察与敏感度更高更细致,因此这个文字最初出现一律是图形文字是有道理的。相比来说,符号文字的出现应该是文字使用比较复杂或者语言比较丰富后的结果。比如说,拼音文字至少是在音节,辅音出现一个固定的范围之后才可能,而图形文字与音节没关系,因此理论上可以无限多,因此出现同音字的问题,甚至可以说图形文字很可能在历史上在许多文明中是与语言独立存在的,比如一直到近代仍有许多民族有语言但是文字只有简单的图形文字而没有普及,直到遇到中华文明这样比较完整的图形文字被取代为止。

              相对来说拼音文字可能就比较稳定,在一个文明中使用的频率与普及度会更高,与语言的同步发展关系也更紧密。比如许多我们现在叫做方言的语言如果是在拼音文字文明中,大概早就都发展出自身的文字系统成为单独语系,而不是被更为复杂的图形文字取代了自己的简陋图形文字,而不得不在方言与一个叫“普通话”的东西之间挣扎。

              关于文字信息密集度的问题,如果只统计信息量,而不关注信息精确度,那么就会无的放矢。一般短信中都存在场景因素,前提假设等,但是如果是不熟悉的人和事之间通讯,完整不被误读的表达,才是衡量信息密集度的指标。 由此引申,电脑互联网是01码基础上的编码结构,因此信息度可以简单为不同文字的编码量。但是从语言的目的去看,更重要的是这个信息量传递的思想,所谓人与人之间的默契很大程度上就是这个意思,因此完整表达一个思想从外延上去说是个很大范围的信息量,往往也不是一句话可以简单完成的。因此,真正衡量这个信息密集度应该从语义的角度上去做工作。

              • 家园 汉语的“心想事成”不精确

                不是心想是脑想,那请问My Heart Will Go On咋理解呢

              • 家园 逻辑带来的是坚固

                抛开逻辑就很难取得共识,没有共识的中国就是一盘量子。这盘子,大概是TG吧。

                奥卡姆剃刀

                好吧,有一天你把量子计算机搞成了,我会做点什么呢?大概会直接连上俺的大脑,在虚幻的真实中,享受无尽的美女和神一般的伟大。幸福还真是近呀。

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