主题：【原创】北非风暴和以色列的军事态势 -- 晨枫
家园 Deception: Pakistan, the Uni Here is the shocking, three-decade story of A. Q. Khan and Pakistan’s nuclear program, and the complicity of the United States in the spread of nuclear weaponry.
In December, 1975, A. Q. Khan—a young Pakistani scientist working in Holland—stole top-secret blueprints for a revolutionary new process to arm a nuclear bomb. His original intention, and that of his government, was purely patriotic—to provide Pakistan a counter to India’s recently unveiled nuclear device. However, as Levy and Scott-Clark relate in their investigation of Khan’s career over the past thirty years, over time that limited ambition mushroomed into the world’s largest clandestine network engaged in selling nuclear secrets—a mercenary and illicit program managed by the Pakistani military and made possible, in large part, by aid money from the United States, Saudi Arabia, and Libya, and by indiscriminate assistance from China.
The authors reveal that the sales of nuclear weapons technology to Iran, North Korea, and Libya, so much in the news today, were made with the clear knowledge of the American government, for whom Pakistan has been a crucial buffer state and ally—first against the Soviet Union, now in the “war against terror.” Every successive American presidency, from Carter to George W. Bush, has turned a blind eye to Pakistan’s nuclear activity—rewriting and destroying evidence provided by its intelligence agencies, lying to Congress and the American people about Pakistan’s intentions and capability, and facilitating, through shortsightedness and intent, the spread of the very weapons we vilify the “axis of evil” powers for having and fear terrorists will obtain. Deception puts our current standoffs with Iran and North Korea in a startling new perspective, and makes clear two things: that Pakistan, far from being an ally, is a rogue nation at the epicenter of world destabilization; and that the complicity of the United States has ushered in a new nuclear winter.
Indeed, the authors—who have built this story over a decade of reporting—make a compelling case that Pakistan is the greatest obstacle to U.S. and world security.Levy, Adrian & Scott-Clark, Catherine. . WDeception: Pakistan, the United States, and the Secret Trade in Nuclear Weaponsalker 2007.http://www.clarkandlevy.com/
巴铁是够不着美国的，但消灭中国却是轻而易举的事情。如果我们现在采取措施改变各项政策的话可能还来的及，还有机会－－比如先让他们和印度先耗上。如果还跟老毛那时一样做冤大头做傻瓜搞不好是真有可能亡国灭种的。
ADRIAN LEVY: Right. I guess the obvious starting point, in essence, is over the border with Pakistan’s long-term nemesis, India. And when India detonated a bomb in 1974, something it did in response to threats from China, Pakistan redoubled all of its efforts to obtain a nuclear weapons program. And a whole series of things came together. They were running a very, very dilapidated plutonium program, which was really going nowhere, tremendously costly, and had been hampered by opposition from the United States, the UK and other powers. But come 1974, 1975, a man who would become identified as the father of the Pakistan bomb program, an entrepreneur, metallurgist and linguist called A.Q. Khan happened to be at the right place at the right time, and he was working as a technical translator in Holland, got hold of some—very simply, in fact, through dire security—some critical blueprints on a revolutionary method of using uranium to arm a nuclear device, took them back to Pakistan, and Benazir Bhutto’s father Zulfikar Ali Bhutto puts him in place, and thus begins the struggle to obtain nuclear weapons.Now, up until 1979, the whole of the world, the Western world, was against Pakistan’s program and did everything it could to inderdict that program, fearing the instability of Pakistan, fearing a nuclear arms race between Pakistan and India. And in fact, at one point, the CIA and the Pentagon looked at sending over a team to destroy the program in a covert operation that was discussed in a meeting with General Brent Scowcroft. But come 1979, things changed, and really, this will completely alter the West’s attitude to the Pakistan program.
In ’79, of course, the Soviets invade Afghanistan, and prior to that, the U.S. ally, the Shah in Iran, flees, enabling Khomenei, the Ayatollah, to come back, and the CIA loses its listening stations, it loses a great ally. And suggestions are made to Carter from Zbigniew Brzezinski, the national security adviser, that America reconsider for the first time the gold standard of nonproliferation and shove it down the agenda in order to begin a new relationship with Pakistan, that was struggling to obtain nuclear weapons. So the suggestion from Brzezinski was the beginning of turning a blind eye, let’s say.
But Carter runs out of steam. And it will be only Reagan, when Reagan comes in in ’81, that effectively can lead to this policy being implemented. And then we will see ten years of what State Department people describe as U.S. permissiveness, but I think what the rest of us would describe as collaboration, covertly, between the Reagan administration and the Pakistan military, to cement security relationship, enabling their nuclear program. And really—I suppose we can go back into some detail on this at a later point, but over that ten years, the whole program would be facilitated. They would cold test a bomb, which means computer simulate one in ’82. ’83 they’d repeat that process. In 1984, the Chinese would take that bomb and hot test it, actually let it off in a Lop Nor test site, their Lop Nor test site. By ’87, that bomb, the Pakistani bomb, had been fixed under a U.S.-supplied F-16 fighter jet and was ready to deploy, a jet sold on the precondition that it could never be used by Pakistan for the nuclear program.
And one thing to remember here is that, year in, year out, throughout that chronology that I’ve given you, Reagan was telling the American people and Congress Pakistan has no bomb, Pakistan cannot deploy a bomb, and it’s not seeking a bomb. And so, you know, the ground was created for the Pakistan weapons program. But it’s more overt than that even, in that there was actual direct U.S. covert aid to that program supplied through the Pentagon and the disruption of CIA operations to inderdict the weapons program by Reagan official appointees who were working with the Pakistanis, collaborating. The results in the ’90s were that Pakistan did proliferate, because U.S. aid was cut off and the U.S. turned its back on Pakistan. And the Pakistanis milked their nuclear program for hard cash, selling to Iran, Iraq, North Korea, Libya, the Axis of Evil powers. And we also know there is intelligence to show that they began negotiations very much with Saudi Arabia, with Syria, and of course there are tentative contacts with al-Qaeda elements, as well.
Well, a remarkable thing has happened. And just to take you back just a tiny bit before that actual date, of course, post-2001, it became blatantly obvious to everybody that there was only one military government repressing human rights, connected tentatively to 9/11, a state sponsor of terrorism, with radical connections to al-Qaeda, that was proliferating WMD. And, of course, that wasn’t Iraq. It was Pakistan. And the problem facing the Bush administration was that their policy post-9/11 was very much to embrace Pakistan as an essential ally in the war on terror, in order to allow the narrative over Iraq and the WMD, so-called WMD, in Iraq to rise. So 2003, as bits of news begin to leak out, news that the U.S. has known about for years, about Pakistan’s nuclear proliferation, a leak of information that happens really quite accidentally through a fairly unknown Iranian dissident group called the MEK, that holds a press conference in Washington, in which it reveals that the Iranians have been developing a nuclear program, a uranium program, and it’s one that’s been largely constructed due to the largesse of the Pakistan military.外链出处家园 你这是挖苦我还是抬举我啊 我要有那水平还混不来饭吃 当然，这领导我也不是不想当的，美女左拥右抱更想，但意淫归意淫，咱民工还是讲个实事求是脚踏实地不是。
自然，人去多了当然会混杂三抬派分子或者会有潜在的三抬派分子被发展出来。但这样就把去的人全都打成是三抬派分子，这样好么？对这个什么派我是真不了解，我直接或间接地接触过各种各样的维族，同样也是在阿富汗，我认识的维族商人对我是言必称“我们中国人”，虽然也有生意上的小矛盾或别的方面的敌意但我确信这家伙不是啥坏人，因为他也待在阿富汗就把他当作恐怖分子显然很荒唐。但难题就在这，我们根本没法区分这些人。就拿这个在喀布尔做地毯买卖的买买提来说，他自己都讲他头一年都亏了三十几万了，后面生意是渐渐做起来了也没挣什么钱，那为什么还待在那边？他的经济实力就那么雄厚？我和他同是中国人却对我是一点点亏都吃不得，却为什么愿意让阿富汗人占那么多便宜呢？所以从恶意的，他是不是东突的外围成员呢，给东突做点什么联络工作呢？当然，我没有证据，而且他确实看起来比较单纯，而且从我的直觉出发他不会与东突有什么关联。那么就只能看情报分析员的能力水平问题。而且就因为骗子横行就干脆放弃了，我觉得这样不对。东突的确是秘密组织，但是秘密组织不等于不跟外界发生任何联系。所以想干就一定会有成果。当然，想得出成果，需要繁重而复杂的巨量劳动。我主要是心疼钞票。觉得浪费这么多钱给那些鸟人，还不如分点经费给我－－假如国安收民工的话。而且，我觉得我们靠这种方法根本是没用的，在土耳其和欧洲的各种维族组织可能有几百个之多，在巴基斯坦的极端组织可能更是多如牛毛。Domestic Organisations1.
Lashkar-e-Omar (LeO)
2.
Sipah-e-Sahaba Pakistan (SSP)
3.
Tehreek-e-Jaferia Pakistan (TJP)
4.
Tehreek-e-Nafaz-e-Shariat-e-Mohammadi
5.
Lashkar-eJhangvi (LeJ)
6.
Sipah-e-Muhammad Pakistan (SMP)
7.
Jamaat-ul-Fuqra
8.
Nadeem Commando
9.
Popular Front for Armed Resistance
10.
Muslim United Army
11.
Harkat-ul-Mujahideen Al-alami(HuMA)
Trans-national Organisations
1.
Hizb-ul-Mujahideen (HM)
2.
Harkat-ul-Ansar (HuA, presently known as Harkat-ul Mujahideen)
3.
Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT)
4.
Jaish-e-Mohammad Mujahideen E-Tanzeem (JeM)
5.
Harkat-ul Mujahideen (HuM, previously known as Harkat-ul-Ansar)
6.
Al Badr
7.
Jamait-ul-Mujahideen (JuM)
8.
Lashkar-e-Jabbar (LeJ)
9.
Harkat-ul-Jehad-al-Islami(HUJI)
10.
Muttahida Jehad Council (MJC)
11.
Al Barq
12.
Tehrik-ul-Mujahideen
13.
Al Jehad
14.
Jammu & Kashir National Liberation Army
15.
People’s League
16.
Muslim Janbaz Force
17.
Kashmir Jehad Force
18.
Al Jehad Force (combines Muslim Janbaz Force and Kashmir Jehad Force)
19.
Al Umar Mujahideen
20.
Mahaz-e-Azadi
21.
Islami Jamaat-e-Tulba
22.
Jammu & Kashmir Students Liberation Front
23.
Ikhwan-ul-Mujahideen
24.
Islamic Students League
25.
Tehrik-e-Hurriat-e-Kashmir
26.
Tehrik-e-Nifaz-e-Fiqar Jafaria
27.
Al Mustafa Liberation Fighters
28.
Tehrik-e-Jehad-e-Islami
29.
Muslim Mujahideen
30.
Al Mujahid Force
31.
Tehrik-e-Jehad
32.
Islami Inquilabi Mahaz
1.
Al-Rashid Trust
2.
Al-Akhtar Trust
3.
Rabita Trust
4.
Ummah Tamir-e-Nau
我们防的了这个，防的了那个吗？我觉得一个还是从严厉打击维族的犯罪入手，把这些人该毙的毙，该关的关，否则这些人本身就是中国组织最严密分布最广的黑手党，他们随便在哪里放点C4或到我们的哪个学校进行下扫射和屠杀是随时都会有可能发生的事情，到时候可能就是俄罗斯第二了。一个，就是在新疆恢复老毛的那一套，成天逼那些鸟人学习洗脑，要跟他们讲老毛就是这个时代的马赫迪，他们一天做五次向麦加的祷告，就让他们一天做五次向北京的祷告，经文就变成由古兰经与毛泽东思想相结合的那种（我在回族清真寺学过几天他们的教材是与儒家结合的那种），来学习的一次给一块钱，表现好的优秀分子一个月给两百到两千的补贴，然后揭发揭露坏分子批斗，拒不改造的实行恐怖政策肉体消灭。不这样搞（破坏他在国内的组织体系和思想倾向），你怎么搜情报，怎么发展经济都是没用的。
另外跑中国大使馆这个我觉得也是骗子，一般大使馆都是情报战的最末一根线了。某人跑来大使馆贩卖情报，其可靠性我觉得也不高，都是编的。南亚一带的全这样子，嘴巴那是，没的说。他们对自己人也很狠的。把自己侄女外甥女拉出来卖淫的都有。我们百姓再没文化再蠢笨如牛可这讲脸面讲面子讲礼尚往来讲将心比心讲见利思义都是浸入我们骨髓里的了。维族和绿教的那个怎么说呢，不能讲没好人，更不能讲他们生下来就那么邪恶，但确实是没话讲。我看过的解释斋月的说法是讲要通过饥饿来感受自己的渺小和真主的伟大来培育同情培育谦卑培育仁慈培育品格，可这些鸟人堕落起来比谁都快，干起坏事来比谁都狠，礼是照拜可贩毒抢劫杀人是照干不误。然后跑到新疆这里，某族的这群鸟人却给掉了个个，这帮人一个个按着老教异端的方式生活，却又靠着三抬派给钱闹事。人活着还真可以这么不要脸啊。
还有一个现在的国际环境也有利于我们，美国现在还在当绿教的靶子。现在不采取措施，搞不好美国人一撤绿教就会开始主攻我们了。
家园 Abdullah Yusuf Azzam 拉登的精神导师 Abdullah Yusuf Azzam (1941 As-ba'ah Al-Hartiyeh, British Mandate of Palestine – November 24, 1989, Peshawar, Pakistan) (Arabic ) was a highly influential Palestinian Sunni Islamic scholar and theologian, who preached in favor of defensive jihad by Muslims to help the Afghan mujahideen against the Soviet invaders. He raised funds, recruited, and organized the international Islamic volunteer effort of Afghan Arabs through the 1980s, and emphasised the political ascension of Islamism.
He is also known as a teacher and mentor of Osama bin Laden, who persuaded bin Laden to come to Afghanistan and help the jihad,[1] though the two differed as to where the next front in global jihad should be after the withdrawal of the Soviets from Afghanistan.[2][3] He was killed by a bomb blast on November 24, 1989.[4]看来他不是巴基斯坦人是巴勒斯坦人。http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abdullah_Yusuf_Azzam
家园 真要追，你可以一直追到阿富汗尼，拉登思想的教祖 资料很好，花谢
家园 不要忘记，疆独和巴基斯坦塔利班也是有千丝万缕关系的 伊斯兰极端势力在巴基斯坦上台，对中国没有好处。
家园 也许巴基斯坦更能扛得住 这个国家就是四个不同的片拼起来的，胶水就是绿教。加厚胶水对于这个国家来说可能反而更好。反而少了麻烦
家园 希望如此吧
家园 首先要相信巴基斯坦人的政治智慧 谢里夫当年可是承认塔利班政权的。他与可能的绿潮达成妥协的可能性很大。另外，巴基斯坦的最大敌人是印度，即使是绿潮上台，这一点也不会改变，这点不改变，巴基斯坦与中国的关系也不会发生质变。
让绿潮再一次席卷南亚次大陆吧！！！
家园 绿朝一旦席卷巴基斯坦，对中国很可能也不是好事 别忘了中国也受绿潮冲击的。
三哥肯定更难受没错，但是中国估计也好不了。
绿潮是笼子里的猛虎，谁都想打开它把它放出来让他咬了自己的对手，但是别忘了自己也是人，一旦跑出来先吃了开笼门的人也不一定。而且，我觉得最好别相信绿潮的政治智慧，霍梅尼上来就敢放话东西方都不靠，塔利班上来直接要圣战全球。中东人的思维是形而上学式的，所以利用他们就跟玩火一样。中国人犯不着跟美国佬一样去犯傻
家园 这个我同意 “巴基斯坦的最大敌人是印度，即使是绿潮上台，这一点也不会改变，这点不改变，巴基斯坦与中国的关系也不会发生质变。”
只是我会加上“巴基斯坦与中国的关系在短期内也不会发生质变。”