主题：【新闻】联想并购 IBM PC -- 任爱杰

搞不好联想又变成国家的另一个失血伤口

台式机方面固然如此，但笔记本上Thinkpad打出的名气可就不是吹牛吹出来的了。

这次大和制作所一起被转卖给了联想，只要那600人不走，今后照样能做出顶级的笔记本来。

与thinkpad的设计、测试的严谨工艺相比，其他厂商的笔记本还真没有几家可以相提并论的......

CMP TechWeb 12/09/2004

(c) 2004 CMP Media Inc.

By:

Almost half of the U.S. enterprises who were IBM PC prospects said that they're ready to consider Dell or HP now that the Armonk, N.Y.-based giant is dumping its desktop and laptop business, a research firm reported Thursday.

Earlier this week, IBM sold its PC business to Lenovo Group, China's biggest computer maker, for $1.75 billion in cash and stock. But while IBM executives have been promising that there will be little or no disruption in business as the hand-over takes place, analysts at research firms such as Forrester sang a different tune.

"The problem is that there will be disruption," said Robert McNeill, a senior analyst with Cambridge, Mass.-based Forrester Research.

In a report issued Thursday, McNeill and several Forrester colleagues said that about half -- 48 percent to be exact -- of IBM's prospects for desktop and/or laptops deals would consider switching to Dell or HP.

Forrester's numbers parallel those acquired so far in an InformationWeek instant poll, which asks users to vote on whether they'll look for another PC provider now that IBM is selling off its unit to Lenovo. As of mid-morning Thursday, 52 percent said they would consider another seller, 30 percent said they wouldn't, and 18 percent were undecided.

"The conventional wisdom says that loyalty to IBM, ThinkPad notebooks in particular, runs deep, but our data showed the exact opposite," said McNeill.

In fact, loyalty by IBM's prospects lags behind potential customers of both Dell and Hewlett-Packard. Only 29 percent of Dell's prospects would consider switching, while 41 percent of HP's would think about it.

"Essentially what we're seeing here is confirmation that business buyers' brand loyalty comes down to price," said McNeill. "IBM made a management choice not to compete on price in the desktop and laptop market."

The IBM rival with the most to gain, said McNeill, is HP. Of the almost half of the IBM prospects polled who said they might switch, 43 said they would also consider Dell, 39 percent said they would also look at HP, and 18 percent reported that they'd consider all three.

"On a unit basis, our data suggests that Dell and HP will split any potential IBM defectors evenly," said McNeill. "An even split would increase HP's market share on a percentage basis. We've seen a little bit of resurgence in HP's desktop/laptop business," he added, "and this would built on that momentum."

In November, Forrester released a study reporting that 31 percent of enterprises said they planned to consider HP, an increase of 7 percent since April. Consideration for Dell, meanwhile, actually slipped 1 point.

But HP's job in winning over IBM customers may be harder than it thinks, said McNeill. "HP will have to build a corporate message as to why they're better able to support a PC business [than Dell or IBM] while at the same time growing their service and outsourcing business."

Dell's strategy, in contrast, is crystal clear. "It's very focused, very tightly attached to the box," said McNeill. "But HP is going to have to defend their position to play in this commodity PC business as they also become a more service type of animal."

Analysts have been busy making recommendations and giving advice to current and potential IBM desktop and laptop customers. Forrester, for instance, ended its Thursday report with a note to expect rivals Dell and HP to offer enticing trade-up deals to current customers, while research competitor Gartner said in an online briefing that customers should "use the potential risks of the [Lenovo] deal to negotiate lower prices or better service levels from IBM."

老兄的分析十分精辟。

呵呵，早知道老兄会帖这么好的文章，咱们就不用捏那两块砖头了。

嗯，还好现在没写多少。停止写到九评的计划吧。

如果联想消化不良的话，恐怕会成了康柏第二。

这IBM在中国很受欢迎，不光受企业青睐，也很受个人追捧，尤其是大学生。当然，现在国内水货很多，学生们的开销比前些年要小很多。不过即便水货也比其他一些品牌价格高，而且水货的质保是大打折扣的，可年轻的朋友们还是情有独钟，连很多小姑娘都以抱着个“黑砖头”为荣。

联想的业务主要在中国，中国人（尤其是年轻人）这种对IBM的独特偏好是不是他们看中的呢？

做的好，我觉得联想还是很有前途。这个判断，大致是基于联想和IBM的关系来考虑的。在目前的情况下，个人感觉他们两个的关系类似一个是商家，一个是仓库的关系。一个在前面推解决方案，一个在后面提供硬件支持。

IBM看来是一心一意走方案解决，硬件方面则逐步放弃了。联想接过来，委屈几年，把品牌打出来了，事情就好办了。

不过，即使联想专注做硬件，象DELL那样，也不见得不好。