主题：【原创】讲讲我对工厂中层的看法 -- wqnsihs
家园 单就这几句话，mang兄对经济的认识就要比很多大教授强了 单就这几句话，mang兄对经济的认识就要比很多大教授强了。
国有企业困难的问题本质上是微观问题，是竞争力不够。。。是解决微观问题，用宏观手段，例如财政政策，货币政策，这就好像得了感冒，用治艾滋病的药来治，非常的不对症。送花一朵。
家园 是的是的,微观结构问题不能用宏观政策解决 曾经有这么两年,国内是在生搬硬套西方的经济政策来作调控的,后来才认识到微观结构不同,企业和经理人的动机都与西方不同,同样的宏观政策不会导致同样的宏观结果,事实上是象双轨制一样起了扭曲的作用.
微观结构问题,说穿了就是国企产权改革.产权以怎样的方式实现,怎样监督经理人用心做事,怎样控制贪污和风险,又怎样鼓励适当的风险和创新.忙总一走,企业就完蛋,说明忙总调整的只是企业运营的微观结构,而对产权结构没有调整,所以产权/资产的控制人不能从企业盈利/正常运营中得利,忙总一走,就要调整到对他有利的形态.
国企,包括以上市公司形态存在的国企,有一个特点,就是很多不适合坐在那个位子上的人,坐在那个位子上,这是一个普遍现象,并且你不作产权结构的变更,你就改变不了这种情况,割去一茬,又长出新的一茬.
不过当时国企的产权改革实际上是禁区,一方面的理论界的老派人士影响力太大,一直到这批人退休/死光后才能说话,不过这时也已经不需要说话了,该死的企业都死了;另一方面则是实践中,抓大放小甩包袱,实际上成了私有化.
对于中央来说,我不要这些包袱,我也搞不清这些企业哪些是真包袱哪些是假包袱,我也不想去搞清,统统扔掉.你们私有化后,是自己的企业了,至少在运营效率上比国企强,然后就指望你慢慢长大,这是另一种形式的休克疗法.
说起"搞不清",我记得当时削减部门,一堆的部长副部长没处去,然后就塞到巨型国企去监督,这帮老先生不懂查帐,但是革命工作是自己的责任啊,于是主动要求参与查帐活动.当时因为国内会计师事务所的假帐太厉害,有几年是老朱指定由六大来负责查巨型国企的帐的,然后老先生就被六大的小MM带去看满满四个房间的帐本....
小虎之前在吴仪手下时,查帐时用五六十年代的陈年旧帐调戏六大的小MM,于是小MM就调戏老先生作为报复
关键词(Tags): #经济，
本帖一共被 1 帖 引用 (帖内工具实现)家园 这几句，很学院啊～ 微观结构问题,说穿了就是国企产权改革.产权以怎样的方式实现,怎样监督经理人用心做事....我们那时的教材,都是只有上课抄讲义,没有课本的,因为旧的教材明显错误,而西方经济学的东西不适用于中国(微观结构不同).所以我们用的教材,本身也是在变化和发展中的.虽然没有教材，但是，第一段那几句话实在很学院啊....可见S兄当初做课堂笔记一定做得很好。这一点，跟有没有固定教材无关。
但窃以为，S兄也没有完全明白mang兄的根本意思，“国有企业困难的问题本质上是微观问题，是竞争力不够”。对比你的第一段论述，带入mang兄这几篇对国企各阶层的分析，可以说是一个走在天上，一个行在地面。
家园 你说的很客观，也很公平 当时我们因为处在水深火热之中，几万人眼看就揭不开锅，自然情绪激动，不像今天可以心平气和，体验他老人家当时的苦衷，当然有过头话。但是，我仍然认为他在95年以后的政策，奠定了一大批制造业国企灭亡的基础。本来有的是可能挺过来的。我见的悲惨事情太多了，我一直不愿意再提当年那些家破人亡工人的惨象。我实在不能释怀。任何政策，你带来大面积的这种危害，总是不成功的吧，应该检讨的吧。
家园 you only see the firm-level picture.
Why Zhu practised stringent monetary policy?--because banks lent like crazily to real estate speculators in early 1990s. Many banks started to have solvency and liquidity problem and without dramatic action, China's financial system might have collapsed in late 1993s/early 1994.
Why Zhu shut down those inefficient state owned plants?--because he faced big central gov deficit due to insufficient sharing of the tax revenue(cash flows) with provincial gov. He had to totally reform the tax system so that he could control 75% of the value-added tax to pay off all the central government obligations.
What are those state-owned enterprises--they were fiscal black holes, creator of huge bank bad loans (eventually the burden on central gov. fiscal budget again, not on provincial gov.), and creator of inflation, due to constant fiscal deficit.
Nobody shuts down cigar firms/liquor producers, because they can at least generate profit and positive cash flows. Zhu is not stupid.
I audited several state-owned enterprises before IPOs. In terms of cash flows, those state-owned firms are constant negative cash flow players.
Except for the monopolistic large state firms, most state firms in 1990s were cash suckers. Many of them still are cash blackholes, with total negative cash flows--do not be fooled by the polished financial statements of its listed subsidiaries. The parent group firm siphoned off 50b RMB from the listed firm as late as 2006. ( Lee and Jiang, 2008)
I am always puzzled why the Chinese state owned firms can not finance its own capital expenditure with its positive operating cash inflows, just like many mature US firms do? Some auditor friends reminded me: the group firm, as a whole, is cash sucker. Think about all those kindergarden, hospital, post office, security forces, union chairs, woman union leaders... not counting those stupid high-price purchase orders, low-price sale contracts...
Just like what you wrote in your own posts.
China has a funny combination of cash generators, monopolistic state-owned firms + private family firms + export sector, AND cash suckers, those ailing state-owned firms.
The latter fed off banks in 1980s and finally Zhu cut off the blood line to these "cancer cells" and asked them to feed off average Chinese. That's why we have the stock exchanges.
The funny thing is that most Chinese are fond of this Ponzi scheme speculating with their hard-earned savings every day.
家园 那些欧洲的国营企业效益如何？特别是法意的。 家园 human beings are similar in nature and different in appearance.
http://www.erisk.com/learning/casestudies/creditlyonnais.asp
google "credit lyonnais scandal". You will be pleased.
家园 又是一个用宏观套微观的 What are those state-owned enterprises--they were fiscal black holes, creator of huge bank bad loans (eventually the burden on central gov. fiscal budget again, not on provincial gov.), and creator of inflation, due to constant fiscal deficit.
这倒很明显，如此这般，中国经济在1993年之前，或者1982年之前，早就应该崩盘了。无它，都是垃圾国有企业嘛～
华盛顿共识英明神武，一统江湖！
不过它的确使很多人赚得满盆满钵就是了。