主题：【摘编】美国经济衰退已经在不少行业中开始了 -- 倥偬飞人
Roubini教授3日发表了最新的文章，指出目前几个行业已经开始进入经济衰退，而正式的经济衰退，也就是以出现连续两个或者更多个季度的负成长为标志，将于07年1季度或者最迟于2季度开始。
房市的衰退还远没有结束，最重要的指标是建造许可证数量，10月份又下跌5%，总计已经下跌超过30%，然而还将进一步下跌！新房价格下跌10%，是房市还将进一步大幅下跌的重要信号。规模为住宅建筑一半左右的非住宅建筑也出现了停滞，因为在住房卖不出去的情况下，没有人愿意在这些所谓的ghost town鬼城周围建造商业建筑的，例如shopping mall、办公楼之类的。
在房市之外，汽车行业大受打击，销售大幅下降，而产能严重过剩。制造业和非制造类行业也都出现了连续两个月的下降, ISM制造业指数刚刚高于50，10月份裁员达到39000人。在耐用消费品方面受到的冲击尤为严重，即汽车、家用电器和家具（倒是可以从这里找出卖空对象，老中好像已经开始研究了么 - 飞人按语）。
虽然服务行业还没有开始衰退，但是已经不远了。沃尔玛的销售已经出现了停滞，11月份预计销售成长为十年来最低的！其他零售商的情况也一样。对假日期间销售成长的期望已经逐渐消退了。10月份零售行业的就业情况也出现了下降。
总体来看，经济的相当组成部分已经进入了衰退，而10月份就业成长仅有92000份工作，而且集中在政府医疗保健等局部，说明经济前景不容乐观，07年Q1,最迟到Q2，就很可能会出现全面的经济衰退。
The Coming 2007 Recession Has Already Started in Many Sectors of the Economy...
Since last July I have been predicting that the US will enter into a recession in 2007. By now it is clear that several sectors of the economy are already in a recession, that Q4 growth will be lower than Q3 growth and that a formal recession (two or more consecutive quarters of negative growth) will very likely start by Q1 or at the latest Q2 of 2007.
It is is certainly the case that we are already in a severe housing recession; and this housing recession is nowhere near bottoming out: building permits - the most important leading indicator of future housing - fell another 5% last month and are already down 30%, and likely to fall even more in the coming months. In the housing sector the cycle starts with permits that lead to housing starts, to construction spending, employment in housing and sales. The continued fall in permits is the strongest signal that a 15% fall in housing starts (from trailing peak) is only the beginning of a much sharper adjustment in the housing sector. The sharp fall in new home prices - down 10% already - is the beginning of a much bigger downward adjustment in prices ahead.
The housing recession is now spreading to other sectors of the economy. Until Q2 non residential construction investment was strong but it was only half the size of housing; but by now it is clear that non residential construction is also completely stalling; the figures for total construction spending for September show a sharp fall in residential construction and a stall of non residential construction. The reason for this contagion from residential to non residential construction is obvious: since we have now entire "ghost towns" in the West (a term used by SF Fed Prez Janet Yellen to describe many housing developments that are empty in the West) no one is going to build stores, shopping malls, shopping centers/strips, offices near these "ghost towns". Indeed, as reported in the lead article of the WSJ last week, a McGraw Hill Construction study forecasted sharp drops in non-residential construction in 2007 as lower housing leads to lower non residential construction. Indeed, the October figures for construction employment already show a fall of 26K (after a plus of 5K in September), a fall that will accelerate in the next few months as housing construction now under completion is completed and then new starts will become sharply lower.
And now in addition to a housing recession and the coming non-residential construction recession, we are also into an auto sector recession that is getting worse by the month as major auto makers as slashing production in face of sluggish sales and massive excess capacity. But this is not just a auto sector recession. We are also already in a manufacturing recession and non-manufacturing industrial recession too: two months of consecutive fall in industrial production, a manufacturing ISM that was borderline awful (just above the 50 recession mark), continued and persistent fall in manufacturing employment (-39K in October alone). Things are getting particularly bad in consumer durables sectors (autos, home appliance, furniture, etc.) as these are closer to housing; but more broadly almost all industrial sectors are contracting. So, housing and construction and manufacturing and industrial sector are already in a recession.
Today's employment report was consistent with my analysis that a good part of the economy is already in a recession: mediocre headline figure at 92K jobs with sharp fall in construction and manufacturing employment, flat levels of the leading temporary employment and falling retail sector employment. Only the service sector is still growing jobs (mostly governement, health care and burger-flipping food sector jobs). And note that both employment and the unemployment rate are lagging indicators of the business cycles. So, it is pretty bad if the best we can do is to add 92K jobs even before an economy-wide recession has started.
In conclusion, the argument that the housing recession is not spilling over to other sectors and to the consumer is faltering: we already have a housing recession, a coming non-residential construction recession, an auto recession, a manufacturing recession, a durable goods recession, an industrial sector recession, and now signs of faltering of the service sector starting with the retail sector and the fall in consumer confidence. Q4 growth is headed to be even worse than the dismal Q3 and the economy is highly likely to enter into an outright recession by Q1 or at the latest Q2 of 2007.
失业来说，只要你不拿失业救济就不算作失业，不少失业多年的就因为救济不管了（救济有两年的年限），就从失业数据里面消失了，变成就业人数了。
不是一帮老头要退休嘛》？
这一回该怎么办呢？
29年的不说了，二次大战也不算，74、75年算一次小的。之后就因为伟大的Greenspan发明了印钞票抗衰退秘方，一直拖到现在都没有着陆过。
只要有信心自己是这60%的人就可以了。要是一直有点积蓄，到时候还能廉价购入各种资产，把萧条变为机会，大萧条时能有钱购入各种资产的萧条完了都变成巨富。尽量不要负债，不要举债消费，留着现金等着低价买优质资产。
老头退休就别指望了，这帮子老头老太的能有本钱退休的根本不多，恐怕大部分都要被迫工作到75、80。
他也解决不了他自己催生出来的这个泡泡，可怜老笨要替他背黑锅了。奇怪的是，格老最近还说房市可以回暖，感情是站着说话不腰疼，老笨这下连非战之罪、怪罪格老挖了个大坑的借口说起来都不顺溜了！
