主题：【原创】奔向复苏或者奔向危机的2007 -- 葡萄
不知葡兄是否有过交流
张文木：《印度国家发展及其潜力评估》
张文木：《世界地缘政治中的中国国家安全利益分析》
至少安徽是的。
新闻报道粮食太多了，没地方存了。国家储备库全满！租私营仓库等。
全球面临巨大的粮食危机 朝鲜等40国家严重饥荒
http://news.cnfol.com/061011/101,1278,2317826,00.shtml
联合国粮农组织发布2006年世界“农业收成预计和粮食现状”报告
联合国粮农组织9日发布2006年世界“农业收成预计和粮食现状”报告显示，由于天灾人祸的影响，全球面临巨大的粮食危机，有40个国家急需国际粮食援助。
该报告称从目前的情况来看，今年全球的粮食产量比今年7月份估计的还要糟糕。由于反常的炎热天气和干旱，世界主要的小麦生产国澳大利亚、阿根廷和巴西的小麦产量出现了不同程度的减产。同时，比往年更加干旱的天气袭击了亚洲南部，这一地区第二季稻谷的产量令人担忧。同时不安全的国际环境也正在威胁全球的粮食生产，整个世界有可能陷入30年来最为可怕的粮食危机。有报道称，目前全球的粮食储备只能勉强支撑人们50多天的需求，已经跌破粮食储备70天的安全线，由此带来的后果是全球大麦的销售价上扬了约20%.
根据联合国粮农组织7月份的估计，2006年全球的粮食产量大概勉强可以超过20亿吨，在2005年为23.8亿吨，与2004年的26.8亿吨相对照，这已经是连续第二年呈下降趋势。美国农业部对2006年的粮食产量的估算则更为悲观，只有19.84亿吨.
■粮食危机地区
东非———反常天气带来的暴雨和持续的战乱是造成该地区粮食减产主要原因。索马里情况最为严峻，巨大的粮食危机将会在该国持续更长的时间。西非的许多国家也需要更多的粮食援助，在情况最为严重的科特迪瓦、几内亚、乍得和塞拉利昂，许多人因为饥饿而离家出走沦为难民。
亚洲———在朝鲜，粮食安全的问题日益突出。东帝汶因为受到骚乱的影响也急需粮食援助。尼泊尔，受到干旱和洪涝灾害的影响。在印度和巴基斯坦，史无前例的洪水造成了上百万人居无定所，食不果腹。
中东———在伊拉克，此起彼伏的冲突和不安定的社会局面使数十万的人民逃离家园，无法保证必要的粮食生产。阿富汗和亚美尼亚的粮食生产也遭受打击，特别是在阿富汗，接连不断的冲突使本来已经岌岌可危的粮食供应雪上加霜。
中美洲———由于受2005年下半年暴风雨的袭击影响，中美洲许多国家的农业生产依然脆弱，还需要更多的粮食援助。而海地、尼加拉瓜和洪都拉斯等国的粮食供给形势也极为严峻，需要更多的帮助。
简评:
我给的文章里有关数字如下:
2006年全球的粮食产量大概勉强可以超过20亿吨，在2005年为23.8亿吨，与2004年的26.8亿吨相对照，这已经是连续第二年呈下降趋势。美国农业部对2006年的粮食产量的估算则更为悲观，只有19.84亿吨.
从乐观的数字将,2006年比2004年粮食产量减了6亿吨,不知道大家怎么看粮食储备跌破安全线,或者简单点说,对比2004年产量2006年的粮食缺口怎么获得供应与援助.
张先生的文章几年前就看过了,可以说是我了解印度的一个新开始,受益良多.
连续第三年提高
里面的经济版地址是：
http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewforum.php?f=2&sid=12a8685de3f55fc2dd36b570e20a4954
如果习惯看英文，可以看到不少最新印度经济信息。
也有些中国人与印度人对吵，挺好玩的。里面印度贴子的水平在印度人中就算不错的了，但我判断他们的思辩层次仍是相当糟糕。中国的愤怒青年比起他们来，得算是见多识广深思熟虑了。
有些东西该已经明朗了吧，你这个系列什么时候续啊？
第一,明年是个转折点,即使不是历史的分水岭也是诱发利益再分配的一个开始,各路玩家都做好了准备准备开牌了.
第二,最近的粮食期货暴涨很可能是明年粮食期货震荡的预演,40天里美国小麦上涨34%的回报足够是全世界玩家心动.
第三,我们认为明年长江会有风险,大堤出不出问题关系才是重大.中央查到武汉,事出有因.
另:地址保存了,多谢陈经兄.
比如,中国对欧洲意料外的强硬,比如中国给美国商务部长如此强势来访团队出奇少的定单,比如昨天中国新闻里在讨论每年外资企业偷逃税额达到2000亿美圆,呵呵都是诡异的紧张,不过一些轮廓性的东西,本周底试着写点.
也许明年粮食的总产量可以达到人类的需求，但是出于对未来不确定的担忧，各个国家会限制出口，进一步加剧国际市场上的短缺，这点其实中国人该有深刻的记忆，当年市场上风闻盐会涨价，结果所有人都去买，市场上一下子买不到了，还包括日用品电器，我印象中最厉害的是88年，其实市场的短缺很大程度来自人们的恐慌心理，放大到国际市场，那就有可能演变成灾难，要是某些负面消息加剧人们的担忧，最起码，市场上的短缺是无法避免的，所以，中国人趁现在搞好储备是上策。
美CIA 报告：中 国 全 面 超 过 印 度
小结：
人 口： 印度 将 在 20-25 年 间， 追 上 中 国 的 人口，达 到 15 亿。
政 治： 中 国 中 央 集 权，多 党 参 议，政 治 稳 定。 印 度 太 多 的 政 党， 事 情 往 往 议 而 难 决。
经济： 中 国 全 面 超 过 印 度。
卫生教育： 中 国 全 面 超过 印 度。
广播电视通 讯和因特网： 中 国 全 面 超过 印 度。 其中中国因特网用户几 近 印 度的两倍， 标志 中 国 计算机电子内 需 市 场 业 已 成 熟， 并 不断 壮大。
军事： 2005年，中国军事开支是 印度的五倍。
来源：
https://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/index.html
Area (Km2)
China: total: 9,596,960 sq km ;land: 9,326,410 sq km ;water: 270,550 sq km
India: total: 3,287,590 sq km;land: 2,973,190 sq km ;water: 314,400 sq km
Natural resources:
China : coal, iron ore, petroleum, natural gas, mercury, tin, tungsten, antimony, manganese, molybdenum, vanadium, magnetite, aluminum, lead, zinc, uranium, hydropower potential (world's largest)
India: coal (fourth-largest reserves in the world), iron ore, manganese, mica, bauxite, titanium ore, chromite, natural gas, diamonds, petroleum, limestone, arable land
Land use:
China: arable land: 14.86% ,permanent crops: 1.27% ,other: 83.87% (2005)
India: arable land: 48.83% ;permanent crops: 2.8% ;other: 48.37% (2005)
Population:
China: 1,313,973,713 (July 2006 est.)
India: 1,095,351,995 (July 2006 est.)
Population growth rate:
China: 0.59% (2006 est.)
India: 1.38% (2006 est.)
Birth rate:
China: 13.25 births/1,000 population (2006 est.)
India: 22.01 births/1,000 population (2006 est.)
Death rate:
China: 6.97 deaths/1,000 population (2006 est.)
India: 8.18 deaths/1,000 population (2006 est.)
Infant mortality rate:
China: total: 23.12 deaths/1,000 live births
male: 20.6 deaths/1,000 live births
female: 25.94 deaths/1,000 live births (2006 est.)
India: total: 54.63 deaths/1,000 live births
male: 55.18 deaths/1,000 live births
female: 54.05 deaths/1,000 live births (2006 est.)
Life expectancy at birth:
China: total population: 72.58 years.
India: total population: 64.71 years
HIV/AIDS - adult prevalence rate:
China: 0.1% (2003 est.)
India: 0.9% (2001 est.)
HIV/AIDS - people living with HIV/AIDS:
China: 840,000 (2003 est.)
India: 5.1 million (2001 est.)
HIV/AIDS - deaths:
China: 44,000 (2003 est.)
India: 310,000 (2001 est.)
Ethnic groups:
China: Han Chinese 91.9%, Zhuang, Uygur, Hui, Yi, Tibetan, Miao, Manchu, Mongol, Buyi, Korean, and other nationalities 8.1%
India: Indo-Aryan 72%, Dravidian 25%, Mongoloid and other 3% (2000)
Religions:
China: Daoist (Taoist), Buddhist, Christian 3%-4%, Muslim 1%-2% note: officially atheist (2002 est.)
India: Hindu 80.5%, Muslim 13.4%, Christian 2.3%, Sikh 1.9%, other 1.8%, unspecified 0.1% (2001 census)
Literacy:
definition: age 15 and over can read and write
China: total population: 90.9%;male: 95.1% ;female: 86.5% (2002) definition: age 15 and over can read and write
India: total population: 59.5%; male: 70.2%; female: 48.3% (2003 est.)
Languages:
China: Chinese
India: English enjoys associate status but is the most important language for national, political, and commercial communication; Hindi is the national language and primary tongue of 30% of the people; there are 14 other official languages: Bengali, Telugu, Marathi, Tamil, Urdu, Gujarati, Malayalam, Kannada, Oriya, Punjabi, Assamese, Kashmiri, Sindhi, and Sanskrit; Hindustani is a popular variant of Hindi/Urdu spoken widely throughout northern India but is not an official language
Government type:
China: Communist state
India: federal republic
Independence:
China: 221 BC (unification under the Qin or Ch'in Dynasty); 1 January 1912 (Manchu Dynasty replaced by a Republic); 1 October 1949 (People's Republic established)
India: 15 August 1947 (from UK)
Political parties and leaders:
China: Chinese Communist Party or CCP [HU Jintao]; eight registered small parties controlled by CCP note -no substantial political opposition groups exist, although the government has identified the Falungong spiritual movement and the China Democracy Party as subversive groups
India has dozens of national and regional political parties.
Economy - overview:
GDP (purchasing power parity):
China: $8.883 trillion (2005 est.)
India: $3.666 trillion (2005 est.)
GDP (official exchange rate):
China: $2.225 trillion (2005 est.)
India: $719.8 billion (2005 est.)
GDP - real growth rate:
China: 10.2% (official data) (2005 est.)
India: 8.4% (2005 est.)
GDP - per capita (PPP):
China: $6,800 (2005 est.)
India: $3,400 (2005 est.)
GDP - composition by sector:
China: agriculture: 12.5%; industry: 47.3% ;services: 40.3%
note: industry includes construction (2005 est.)
India: agriculture: 18.6% ;industry: 27.6% ;services: 53.8% (2005 est.)
Labor force:
China: 791.4 million (2005 est.)
India: 496.4 million (2005 est.)
Labor force - by occupation:
China: agriculture: 49% ;industry: 22% ;services: 29% (2003 est.)
India: agriculture: 60%;industry: 17% ;services: 23% (1999)
Unemployment rate:
China: 9% official registered unemployment in urban areas in 2004; substantial unemployment and underemployment in rural areas; an official Chinese journal estimated overall unemployment (including rural areas) for 2003 at 20% (2005 est.)
India: 8.9% (2005 est.)
Population below poverty line:
China: 10% (2001 est.)
India: 25% (2002 est.)
Household income or consumption by percentage share:
China: lowest 10%: 2.4%;highest 10%: 30.4% (1998)
India: lowest 10%: 3.5%;highest 10%: 33.5% (1997).
Distribution of family income - Gini index:
China: 44 (2002)
India: 32.5 (2000)
Inflation rate (consumer prices):
China: 1.8% (2005 est.)
India: 4.2% (2005 est.)
Investment (gross fixed):
China: 44.4% of GDP (2005 est.)
India: 28.1% of GDP (2005 est.)
Budget:
China: revenues: $392.1 billion,expenditures: $424.3 billion; including capital expenditures of $NA (2005 est.)
India: revenues: $111.2 billion ,expenditures: $135.8 billion; including capital expenditures of $15 billion (2005 est.)
Public debt:
China: 24.4% of GDP (2005 est.)
India: 53.8% of GDP (federal and state debt combined) (2005 est.)
Industrial production growth rate:
China: 29.5% (2005 est.)
India: 7.9% (2005 est.)
Electricity - production:
China: 2.19 trillion kWh (2004)
India: 556.8 billion kWh (2003)
Electricity - consumption:
China: 2.17 trillion kWh (2004)
India: 519 billion kWh (2003)
Electricity - exports:
China: 10.6 billion kWh (2003)
India: 187 million kWh (2003)
Electricity - imports:
China: 1.546 billion kWh (2003)
India: 1.4 billion kWh (2003)
Oil - production:
China: 3.504 million bbl/day (2004)
India: 785,000 bbl/day (2005 est.)
Oil - consumption:
China: 6.391 million bbl/day (2004)
India: 2.32 million bbl/day (2003 est.)
Oil - exports:
China: 340,300 bbl/day (2004)
India: 350,000 bbl/day
Oil - imports:
China: 3.226 million bbl/day (2004)
India: 2.09 million bbl/day
Oil - proved reserves:
China: 18.26 billion bbl (2004)
India: 5.7 billion bbl (2005 est.)
Natural gas - production:
China: 35.02 billion cu m (2003)
India: 27.1 billion cu m (2003 est.)
Natural gas - consumption:
China: 33.44 billion cu m (2003 est.)
India: 27.1 billion cu m (2003 est.)
Natural gas - exports:
China: 2.79 billion cu m (2004)
India: 0 cu m (2001 est.)
Natural gas - proved reserves:
China: 2.53 trillion cu m (2004)
India: 853.5 billion cu m (2005)
Current account balance:
China: $160.8 billion (2005 est.)
India: $-12.95 billion (2005 est.)
Exports:
China: $752.2 billion f.o.b. (2005 est.)
India: $76.23 billion f.o.b. (2005 est.)
Imports:
China: $631.8 billion f.o.b. (2005 est.)
India: $113.1 billion f.o.b. (2005 est.)
Reserves of foreign exchange and gold:
China: $825.6 billion (2005 est.)
India: $136 billion (2005 est.)
Debt - external:
China: $252.8 billion (2005 est.)
India: $125.5 billion (2005 est.)
Communications
Telephones - main lines in use:
China: 350.433 million (2005)
India: 49.75 million (2005)
Telephones - mobile cellular:
China 393.428 million (2005)
India: 69,193,321 (2006)
Radio broadcast stations:
China: AM 369, FM 259, shortwave 45 (1998)
India: AM 153, FM 91, shortwave 68 (1998)
Television broadcast stations:
China: 3,240 (of which 209 are operated by China Central Television, 31 are provincial TV stations, and nearly 3,000 are local city stations) (1997)
India: 562 (of which 82 stations have 1 kW or greater power and 480 stations have less than 1 kW of power) (1997)
Internet hosts:
China: 187,508 (2005)
India: 787,543 (2005)
Internet users:
China: 111 million (2005)
India: 60 million (2005)
Transportation
Airports:
China: 486 (2006)
India: 341 (2006)
Airports - with paved runways:
China: total: 403,over 3,047 m: 56; 2,438 to 3,047 m: 127
(2006)
India: total: 243, over 3,047 m: 17; 2,438 to 3,047 m: 51 (2006)
Airports - with unpaved runways:
China: total: 83
India: total: 98
Heliports:
China: 32 (2006)
India: 28 (2006)
Railways:
China: total: 74,408 km
standard gauge: 74,408 km 1.435-m gauge (19,303 km electrified) (2004)
India: total: 63,230 km
broad gauge: 45,718 km 1.676-m gauge (16,528 km electrified)
narrow gauge: 14,406 km 1.000-m gauge (165 km electrified); 3,106 km 0.762-m gauge and 0.610-m gauge (2005)
Roadways:
China: total: 1,809,829 km
paved: 1,447,682 km (with at least 29,745 km of expressways)
unpaved: 362,147 km (2003)
India: total: 3,851,440 km
paved: 2,411,001 km
unpaved: 1,440,439 km (2002)
Waterways:
China: 123,964 km (2003)
India: 14,500 km
note: 5,200 km on major rivers and 485 km on canals suitable for mechanized vessels (2005)
Merchant marine:
China: total: 1,723 ships
India: total: 316 ships
Ports and terminals:
China: 7,
India: 9, Chennai, Haldia, Jawaharal Nehru, Kandla, Kolkata (Calcutta), Mumbai (Bombay), New Mangalore, Vishakhapatnam