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主题：2020年的黑天鹅 -- 红军迷
特朗普政府刚宣布，除非是美国公民和绿卡持有人及其直系亲属，所有其他人等如14天内曾往中国则拒绝入境美国。本星期日下午5时生效。
此次事件对于中国和世界的影响，虽比不上911对美国和世界的影响，但目前已经朝那个方向走了。特朗普此举的实际及象征意义也让我想起911之后小布什政府举动所产生的后果。咱们看看中国政府的应对怎么样。前车之鉴不可不察。
我在河里另一个楼下发言怼了楼主的言论。他从莆田系医院送口罩这件事居然得出“千疮百孔的中国……上上下下都烂完了”这种结论。我是认为其心可诛的！
另外，我在那个楼里说了：“今天纽约一位同事在朋友圈说，火车上坐旁边的白人乘客先坐下，然后不安地起身，又坐下，但三分钟后终于还是跑到隔壁车厢去了。同事将此称为至暗时刻。同事并没有戴口罩。鉴于现在的气氛，我倒觉得对该乘客未可多加责备。但stigmatization的阴影已然飘来。恐慌是有传染性的，能把灾害的损失扩大十倍。所以我还是要出来怼一怼这位危言耸听的楼主。本来这几天一直看，没想发言的。”
黑头发黄皮肤的各位，要做好思想准备啦。这不，特朗普发禁令后，有美国专业人士提出反对意见。结果好嘛，文章下面的评论（特朗普拥趸）就开始拿“中国人”说话了。其中一位说：You people would rather wipe out humanity with a plague than let Trump be right about something. Go fly to China if you want to be around Chinese people so badly（“作者们宁愿让瘟疫灭绝人类，也不想承认特朗普对一件事的做法是正确的。你们要是这么渴望跟中国人在一起，那就飞到中国去吧”）。另一位说：These people would literally rather die than appear racist（“作者们宁愿去死，也不想让人觉得自己是种族主义”）。大家可以发挥一点点想象力，接下来会演变到何种地步？
这是文章及读者评论的原文：
By MEGAN THIELKING @meggophone and LEV FACHER @levfacher
JANUARY 31, 2020
The Trump administration’s decision to ban most foreign nationals who had been to China in the last two weeks from traveling to the United States amid an accelerating outbreak of a novel coronavirus there was preceded by calls for similar policies from conservative lawmakers and far-right supporters of the president. Public health experts, however, warn that the move could do more harm than good.
The administration’s public health emergency declaration also requires U.S. citizens returning from China to undergo some level of quarantine, depending on where they had been in China.
Before the announcement Friday, Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) had called for a ban on all commercial flights from China, and Rep. Paul Gosar (R-Ariz.) said the government should consider “implementing a temporary travel ban on travelers from China until the threat is resolved.”
Beyond Capitol Hill, Mike Cernovich, a prominent conspiracy theorist and early Trump supporter, had agitated on Twitter for a Chinese travel ban, as has Michael Savage, another conspiracy theorist and a radio host with white nationalist beliefs. “QUARANTINE! STOP TRAVELERS FROM CHINA NOW!” he said on Twitter last week.
The ban comes on top of moves by major U.S. airlines halting flights to and from mainland China.
The outbreak has sickened nearly 10,000 people, mostly in China, and killed more than 200. A few countries have responded by imposing full or limited travel bans. The Philippines, for instance, has banned travel from the city of Wuhan, the epicenter of the outbreak. Countries including the Bahamas, Mongolia, and Singapore have banned all travel from China.
Public health experts have warned that travel bans are not effective at stemming the spread of a virus and can make responding to an outbreak more challenging.
“From a public health perspective, there is limited effectiveness. And then there are a host of other reasons why they can actually be counterproductive,” said Catherine Worsnop, who studies international cooperation during global health emergencies at the University of Maryland.
The World Health Organization, which declared the outbreak a global health emergency this week, has recommended against any travel or trade restrictions in response to the outbreak. Member countries, however, do not have to comply with that guidance.
“Although travel restrictions may intuitively seem like the right thing to do, this is not something that WHO usually recommends,” said Tarik Jašarević, a WHO spokesperson. “This is because of the social disruption they cause and the intensive use of resources required,” he added.
Experts said travel bans could lead to a slew of downstream effects and risk complicating the public health response.
“There’s not only the financial toll on a country that is dealing with this outbreak, but this can discourage transparency, both in this outbreak and in the future,” Worsnop said.
Travel and trade restrictions can lead to dire economic consequences for countries involved, creating a disincentive for them to quickly disclose potential outbreaks to the WHO or other nations. They can hinder the sharing of information, make it harder to track cases and their contacts, and disrupt the medical supply chain, potentially fueling shortages of drugs and medical supplies in the areas hit hardest by the outbreak. They also send a punitive message, which could contribute to discrimination and stigmatization against Chinese nationals, experts warned.
Any effort and money spent crafting and enforcing travel and trade restrictions also take away already-stretched resources from public health measures that have been proven to be far more effective, experts said. Those measures include providing assistance to countries with weaker health systems, accelerating the development of a vaccine or rapid diagnostic test, and clearly communicating with the public about when and how to seek care.
But for politicians, those responses might not feel as tangible an action as enacting a travel ban. During the 2013-2014 Ebola outbreak, there was a flurry of calls for a U.S. ban on travel from the affected countries, including from Donald Trump, then a private citizen.
“People want their government to do something when these outbreaks are happening, and adopting a border restriction is a visible policy that people think works,” Worsnop said.
Enacting such a ban would go directly against the recommendation of the WHO, which has said countries must inform the organization of any travel restrictions they put in place.
“Adopting these restrictions undermines the cooperative approach we need to respond to this kind of outbreak, specifically by undermining the authority of the WHO, which has recommended against these restrictions,” Worsnop said.
Worsnop said she is hopeful that the WHO will be able to hold countries accountable for disregarding its guidance, including pressing countries for scientific justification for their travel policies and calling out governments that have gone against its recommendations.
“Unfortunately, [governments] face domestic and international pressures, and have faced few costs in the past for not following WHO recommendations,” she said.
Megan Thielking
Reporter
Megan writes about health and medicine, with a focus on mental health.
@meggophone
Lev Facher
Washington Correspondent
Lev Facher covers the politics of health and life sciences.
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Comment
* Karen JANUARY 31, 2020 AT 5:54 PM A non-doctor who got their PhD in 2016 probably should not be giving anyone medical advice. A spokesman also should not be giving medical advice. This article seems very poorly written. A recent Public Policy PhD is not a medical expert.
* Jack JANUARY 31, 2020 AT 4:47 PM You people would rather wipe our humanity with a plague than let Trump be right about something. Go fly to China if you want to be around Chinese people so badly. If a person has no say about who gets to enter their home, is it really theirs? Reply
* knedl JANUARY 31, 2020 AT 4:15 PM u are fucking insane
* Prince JANUARY 31, 2020 AT 3:53 PM That’s funny.. let’s read this other story headline on your website;
* “Study documents first case of coronavirus spread by a person showing no symptoms”. You can’t convince me that imposing temporary travel restrictions isn’t the correct thing to do.
* Greg Grimer JANUARY 31, 2020 AT 3:47 PM Too late for a travel ban. Virus is here and infecting exponentially. Asymptomatic people are spreading the infection NOW as you read this. Listen, and understand. Coronavirus is here and has been for over a week. It can’t be bargained with. It can’t be reasoned with. It doesn’t feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And it absolutely will not stop, until it runs out of people to infect.
* Johnny Pranke JANUARY 31, 2020 AT 3:30 PM These people would literally rather die than appear racist.
在中美PK的关键时期，有一个乐观的共识，即只要中国自身不乱，保持既有节奏，就会笑到最后，因为从大趋势看，一个在往上走，而一个在往下。
但这个共识的前提是中国自身不能出问题，政治、经济、社会等方面不能出大的问题。
可是黑天鹅还是来了，带着墨菲定律，在上上下下天天喊着风险防范的口号声中翩然而至。
所谓黑天鹅，一是难以预料，二是带来颠覆性的影响。
难以预料方面，由于疫情还在猛烈发展，至于发展到何等程度，什么时候结束均未知，所有的预测，无论是谁做出的预测，无论是悲观还是乐观，都不可信。
颠覆性的影响方面，已经出现苗头，而且不可遏制。政治方面，可能是本届遇到的最大挑战。在湖北方面昏招、乱招叠出的情况下，两个亲自有背书之嫌；面对一场恶仗，群众期待在满朝文武能站出来一个能打的，象非典时期的铁娘子吴仪和救火队长王岐山，可现在的情况是，每天在各色专家的唾沫中，在各级机器人的念稿中，在各种真假难辨的消息中，群众惶惶不可终日；经济方面，服务和零售这个春节基本歇菜，如果严格的疫情管控持续到2月底（乐观估计），所有行业都将受到重创，这在下行压力巨大的形势下，无疑是雪上加霜。社会方面，当政治经济出现不好的苗头时，出乱象的可能性加大。
今年的两会不好开啊。
就是谣言驱动的乌合之众现象，放大了危机。
国家的舆论控制失效。
千钧之弓，轻发则无宏功。
平时管小事太多，错以为信息管理零边际成本，透支了力量。
－－－－－
责怪外国人，也没有必要。我家儿子和朋友出去玩，咳了两声，朋友们都开玩笑。心里不是滋味，但似乎也不能较真。
倒是BUS上，还有戴着黑口罩的，就连我看了都一肚子火。
你把对象搞错了吧，如果你说的是红十字，我到认为这句话没问题。
如果是说我，呵呵，意思全国范围内，我居然能比红十字会还更心黑手辣？
现实是红十字会，压根不算什么。
真正其心可诛的是管控红十字会的高层，居然上映了红十字会如此大片，引发海量的民愤，还能安心，毫无反应。
最搞笑的是你不去指责这些安居高位的高层，不去指责红十字会，反而嘲笑我不顾大局。
你丫就是个黑白颠倒，主次不分的糊涂蛋。
最搞笑的是你的天真。
美国是一个毫无下限，可以靠一袋洗衣粉就给你定罪的。
美国想封杀华为，想封杀中国，借口可以选香港，可以选武汉病毒，可以随便拿袋洗衣粉。
你以为中国在香港上忍气吞声，美国就没借口封杀你了？
你以为中国在解决武汉病毒，做的再完美些，美国就没借口封杀你了？
美国只要想封杀，借口一抓一大把。
你这种痛心疾首，完全是犯幼稚病。
中国应该做的事情，方向你都搞反了。
看看伊拉克为了证明不存在大规模杀伤性武器，答应美国检查，答应美国销毁弹道导弹，结果吶，美国拿出一袋洗衣粉就认定伊拉克拥有大规模杀伤性武器。
可以推理，就算是中国在香港上让步，在武汉病毒上退缩，你敢保证美国不拿出带洗衣粉来封杀你？
愚蠢。。。。
红会的事狠批很斗没问题。应该的。你的恶意在于引出“千疮百孔的中国……上上下下都烂完了”这种结论。用心何其毒也！其他不用多说了。
有感
春日家家喜乐消
寒风阵阵恶闻飘
亲悲却见仇敌快
板荡偏能辨人妖
好消息是从昨天开始死亡人数在下降，治愈人数在上升。我们已经熬过黑暗黎明就要到来。让那些内外反动派在我们面前发抖罢，让他们去说我们这也不行那也不行罢，中国人民的不屈不挠的努力必将稳步地达到自己的目的。这个湖南人的声音每当国家有困难时就会在每个中国人耳边响起
英格兰谢菲尔德那里有中国女生因为戴口罩被袭击了。。。当然英国小混混也多
德国柏林，貌似某族两渣女对中国女生又打又骂脏话。 好在她深得主席战争思想精髓，挨着打也薅下一把某族女的头发。
大荷南，旅荷华人，也许有拿了荷兰护照的，强烈谴责1.12后从中国返回的华人。今天荷兰卫生?健康部 结论是莫戴口罩，一方面是没用二是库存已经被抢光，哈哈。也无需隔离从中国抵荷的旅客。 建议从武汉抵荷的自行隔离。
反关我们却在10年取消对患有艾滋病、性病、麻风病外国人的入境限制，并限定禁止入境的患有精神病和肺结核病外国人的范围。
这么仁慈？
在你眼里仅红会值得狠批？
在我眼里这些人值得物理消灭。
除此之外都表现优秀，值得表彰，带大红花？
在武汉，省委书记，省长，武汉市委书记，市长值得表彰么？
在中国疾病中心那些为发表论文不顾现在已经离世的三百多条鲜活生命的专家们值得表彰么？
值得全国人民崇拜给其高唱赞歌么？
千疮百孔的中国，上上下下都烂完了。
今天的中国现状难道不是这样的？
武汉是面镜子，每天都上演着一幕幕令人唏嘘不已的高官表演，是现代版的官场现形记，赤裸裸的毫无遮掩的展现的国人眼前。
这样的队伍，国人能信任有能力去完成祖国统一大业，痴心幻想去收复台湾？
根都烂完了，我是不报丝毫希望。
当你在为心中的中国辩护的时候，是否意识到现在的中国早已和49年浴血奋战的共产党越来越远离，现实是滑向早已没落腐败无能的国民党。
你可以眼瞎，但无论你如何争论，你改变不了现实。
我相信你是希望祖国繁荣富强，但这不是靠你睁眼说瞎话，就能实现的。
如果，你相信在河里把我说赢了，中国就会迎来了美好光明的未来。
我可以对你认输，可是这样就能改变丝毫现状么？
如果这样可以欺骗你自己，我认输逗你玩又何妨？
可惜这样有意义？
中国要有未来，已经到了上上下下彻底改变的时候了，否则结局注定是今天衰败的国民党。
事情没那么坏。
土共也罢，土鳖也罢，形象就从来离不开一个土，在某些人眼里就从来就没有优美过。
某些人动不动说主席在的时候会怎样怎样，现在怎样怎样。但如果是主席总理现在当政，他们不会挨骂？肯定会，一百个会，只不过他们不在了。
遇到问题，解决问题，这是日常。
保持定力，保持向上的势头。谁也否认不了这个体制的缺点，但谁也否认不了中国几十年的发展。只要国家足够强大，受益的是每一个华人。
磕磕碰碰是常态，负重前行而已。
这才是中国正该去做的。
甚至可以说曝光是件好事，可以发现问题，解决问题。
但是中国是否还有这个纠错能力，目前表示怀疑。
红十字会多年前就发生郭美美事件，多年过去的今天仍不见丝毫改善。
国台办在中国长期有个外号叫跪台办，香港回归多年居然能孕育出如今的果实。
可以说中国纠错能力荡然无存。
这也是悲观，失望的原因所在。
虽然曾经的革命党已经蜕变成官僚集团，但是我相信只要新华门那五个大字还在，天安门城楼上老人家的像还在，那么这个党和政府就一定会改变回去。到了知天命的年龄相信命运的感觉