主题：美国贸易代表办公室对中美贸易协议第一阶段的报道 -- 果酱

United States and China Reach Phase One Trade Agreement

12/13/2019

Washington, DC – The United States and China have reached an historic and enforceable agreement on a Phase One trade deal that requires structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime in the areas of intellectual property, technology transfer, agriculture, financial services, and currency and foreign exchange. The Phase One agreement also includes a commitment by China that it will make substantial additional purchases of U.S. goods and services in the coming years. Importantly, the agreement establishes a strong dispute resolution system that ensures prompt and effective implementation and enforcement. The United States has agreed to modify its Section 301 tariff actions in a significant way.

“President Trump has focused on concluding a Phase One agreement that achieves meaningful, fully-enforceable structural changes and begins rebalancing the U.S.-China trade relationship. This unprecedented agreement accomplishes those very significant goals and would not have been possible without the President’s strong leadership,” said United States Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer.

“Today’s announcement of a Phase One agreement with China is another significant step forward in advancing President Trump’s economic agenda. Thanks to the President’s leadership, this landmark agreement marks critical progress toward a more balanced trade relationship and a more level playing field for American workers and companies,” said Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin.

The United States first imposed tariffs on imports from China based on the findings of the Section 301 investigation on China’s acts, policies, and practices related to technology transfer, intellectual property, and innovation. The United States will be maintaining 25 percent tariffs on approximately $250 billion of Chinese imports, along with 7.5 percent tariffs on approximately $120 billion of Chinese imports.

The United States and China have reached an historic and enforceable agreement on a Phase One trade deal that requires structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime in the areas of intellectual property, technology transfer, agriculture, financial services,and currency and foreign exchange. The Phase One agreement also includes a commitment by China that it will make substantial additional purchases of U.S. goods and services in the coming years. Importantly, the greement establishes a strong dispute resolution system that ensures prompt and effective implementation and enforcement. The United States has agreed to modify its Section 301 tariff actions in a significant way.

Information on specific chapters of the Phase One agreement is provided below:

• Intellectual Property: The Intellectual Property (IP) chapter addresses numerous longstanding concerns in the areas of trade secrets, pharmaceutical-related intellectual property, geographical indications, trademarks, and enforcement against pirated and counterfeit goods.

• Technology Transfer: The Technology Transfer chapter sets out binding and enforceable obligations to address several of the unfair technology transfer practices of China that were identified in USTR’s Section 301 investigation. For the first time in any trade agreement, China has agreed to end its long-standing practice of forcing or pressuring foreign companies to transfer their technology to Chinese companies as a condition for obtaining market access, administrative approvals, or receiving advantages from the government. China also commits to provide transparency, fairness, and due process in administrative proceedings and to have technology transfer and licensing take place on market terms. Separately, China further commits to refrain from directing or supporting outbound investments aimed at acquiring foreign technology pursuant to industrial plans that create distortion.

• Agriculture: The Agriculture Chapter addresses structural barriers to trade and will support a dramatic expansion of U.S. food, agriculture and seafood product exports, increasing American farm and fishery income, generating more rural economic activity, and promoting job growth. A multitude of non-tariff barriers to U.S. agriculture and seafood products are addressed, including for meat, poultry, seafood, rice, dairy, infant formula, horticultural products, animal feed and feed additives, pet food, and products of agriculture biotechnology.

• Financial Services: The Financial Services chapter addresses a number of longstanding trade and investment barriers to U.S. providers of a wide range of financial services, including banking, insurance, securities, and credit rating services, among others. These barriers include foreign equity limitations and discriminatory regulatory requirements. Removal of these barriers should allow U.S. financial service providers to compete on a more level playing field and expand their services export offerings in the Chinese market.

• Currency: The chapter on Macroeconomic Policies and Exchange Rate Matters includes policy and transparency commitments on currency issues. The chapter addresses unfair currency practices by requiring high-standard commitments to refrain from competitive devaluations and targeting of exchange rates, while significantly increasing transparency and providing mechanisms for accountability and enforcement. This approach will help reinforce macroeconomic and exchange rate stability and ensure that China cannot use currency practices to unfairly compete against U.S. exporters.

• Expanding Trade: The Expanding Trade chapter includes commitments from China to import various U.S. goods and services over the next two years in a total amount that exceeds China’s annual level of imports for those goods and services in 2017 by no less than $200 billion. China’s commitments cover a variety of U.S. manufactured goods, food, agricultural and seafood products, energy products, and services. China’s increased imports of U.S. goods and services are expected to continue on this same trajectory for several years after 2021 and should contribute significantly to the rebalancing of the U.S.-China trade relationship.

• Dispute Resolution: The Dispute Resolution chapter sets forth an arrangement to ensure the effective implementation of the agreement and to allow the parties to resolve disputes in a fair and expeditious manner. This arrangement creates regular bilateral consultations at both the principal level and the working level. It also establishes strong procedures for addressing disputes related to the agreement and allows each party to take proportionate responsive actions that it deems appropriate.

特朗普真是个戏精

在里面最重要的东西都给模糊化了，说明他们都在隐藏什么，最后一章的Dispute Resolution的 agreement实际上是最大的秘密，考虑到中国政府文本的平衡性要求，这个 agreement to ensure the effective implementation of....... 应该另外有一个文件，这个文件应该牵扯到中国国家主权问题。

在finacial service 这一段，可以看出中国就是跪了，因为里面只提到中国需要对米饭的开放，而没有提到中方可以对等的在米锅有同样的待遇。如果有人说这是很不错的协议，那这些人也够无耻的了。我就想知道中国政府到底怕的是什么? 可以签署这种单向有利的协议? 在这里连文本的平衡性都不要了。是不是牵协议的人以为大家都是傻子?

在 agriculture 章节看到了几个母猪人垄断的产业，可以看到母猪在某种程度上就是吸中国人民的血。其中的 products of agriculture biotechnology 就是母猪的垄断产业，他们曾经收买哈佛教授写了一个肉类产品是人类健康的主要影响因素的重要文章，后被揭露。

整个 fact sheet, 里面的题眼就是 enforceable. 他们怎么执行?这才是关键。 估计里面应该还有对中国很不利的东西，但是我的水平就能看见这么些了，其它的很明显的如只降了一个1600亿百分之15的税就已经得到了金融开放，保险开放，已经大规模购买农产品，把中国的食品检验检疫权放弃，还美名其曰中美肉类制品的边境检疫等效，这种臭不要脸的文章，我就不提了。

我现在很怀疑中国的非洲猪瘟可能就是中国政府本身参与的阴谋，至少是在制止猪瘟上不作为，一切都是为了卖米锅的肉。

先写这些，以后看更详细的agreement.

是美国方面自己公布的摘要，所谓的fact sheet，不是所有的fact的sheet，是他想要你知道的fact的sheet，而且是不是fact还是两说。

你激动得太早了。

然后由莱特希泽和刘鹤签字。

果然如此的话，那就是双方都准备随时撕毁这个协议。

评中美就第一阶段经贸协议文本达成一致 | 梅新育

我印象中国新办夜晚召开时间最晚的一场新闻发布会正在进行中，宣布双方已就第一阶段经贸协议文本达成一致。

我的看法：

首先，这是平等互利的协议，也只有平等互利的协议才是有希望落实并长期遵守执行的协议。其平等互利突出体现在作为贸易战始作俑者，美方同意分阶段取消对中国货物额外加征的关税，这是中国在这场谈判中的核心关切。

同时，其平等互利还体现在美方对中国部分商品市场准入也比贸易战爆发之前放宽了。如美方近期先后公布了允许中国自产熟制禽肉、鲶鱼产品输美的最终规则，中国成为继加拿大、墨西哥、智利等国之后有资格向美国出口自产原料熟制禽肉的国家，也是目前全世界有资格向美国出口鲶鱼的三个国家之一。此外，美方还同意公布中国的香梨、柑橘、鲜枣输美监管通报程序，允许这些产品向美国出口，并在协议中就尽快解除中国输美水产品自动扣留等作出了积极承诺。这其中有些问题已经谈了10多年了，这次终于有了实质性突破。

至于中国扩大从美国进口农产品和能源，这个在贸易战爆发之前本来就是我们的共识。我在贸易战爆发之日提出“史诗级贸易战”，在贸易战爆发之前一直积极主张扩大从美国进口农产品和能源。这些扩大进口，不仅仅是有利于改善我们国民生活，更重要的是有助于抑制国内下游产业成本，保持、增强国内下游制造业国际竞争力。别忘了，中国是世界第一制造业大国，制造业是我们国民经济基础。贸易战暂停升级，回到平等互利贸易的轨道上，对双方都是好事。

其次，这对于中美两国经济和世界经济都是好事。中美是全世界迄今仅有的两个十万亿美元经济体，即使是世界第三经济大国日本，去年名义GDP也只相当于中国的37%；且本世纪以来基本上每年世界经济增量50%来自中美两国。中美全面贸易战，对全球经济贸易是十足噩梦。

须知，现在全球经济贸易增长形势都不太好。2018年10月、2019年1月、2019年4月、2019年7月和10月，国际货币基金组织《世界经济展望报告》（WEO）及其关键预测更新已经连续5次下调2019年世界经济增长预期，目前的2019年世界经济增长率预期为3.0%，是次贷危机以来最低增长率，比2017年全球经济增长率（3.8%）低了0.8个百分点。且预计2020年世界经济增长率也只有3.4%，比该报告4月份的预测下调了0.2个百分点。

2018年全球货物贸易增长率仅有3.0%，低于世贸组织此前预期的3.9%；在世贸组织4月2日发布的2019—2020年全球贸易展望中，预计2019年货物贸易增长率还将进一步下降至2.6%。

不仅如此，目前正处于景气峰顶的美国经济也日益逼近金融泡沫破裂、新一场危机到来的转折点，国内外学界和市场机构中，相当多的人认为美国经济很可能在2020年前后重陷金融危机。如果这一预期成为现实，世界经济增长率还要进一步下行。

在这种情况下，中美贸易战对全球经济贸易的打击加倍放大；停战利好也加倍放大。

在长周期背景上考察，世界经济已经在2014年前后进入低增长时期，可能延续10年左右。中美贸易战对世界经济的影响会是长期的。

中美就第一阶段协议文本达成一致，并不意味着万事大吉。毕竟美方此前已经多次表现“弃约精神”，现在到签约期间会不会发生意外？

签约之后能否切实履约执行？

第一阶段协议没有涉及的“硬骨头”问题怎么处理？

中美贸易战爆发后美方把摩擦争端从双边推向区域和多边体系，从单纯经贸领域推向政治、乃至军事摩擦领域，……所有这些都会影响到中美之间的双边协议执行、发展，特朗普的政敌还会努力给他“上眼药”，我们对此要有充分、冷峻的认识。

在13号白天我参加的2019年国际形势与中国外交研讨会，外交部长王毅作开幕演讲，抨击2019年美方在经贸、科技、人员交往等领域接连对中国无端设限和打压，在香港、台湾、新疆、西藏、人权等涉及中国领土主权和民族尊严的核心利益问题上蓄意攻击抹黑，利用各种国际场合诋毁中国的社会制度、发展道路以及同其他国家的互利合作，给中国扣上各种莫须有的罪名，谴责美方这种在国际交往中罕见的近乎偏执的行为；夜里国新办召开发布会宣布中美第一阶段经贸协议文本达成一致，这种安排可能有深意存焉，体现了我方决策层的冷静清醒。

同时，2020年美国完全有可能爆发金融危机和实体经济萧条，一旦出现这种情况，他们对华履约动机肯定会削弱。对此，我们也要有足够准备，对经济周期不要抱幻想。

所以，不要把希望寄托在别国身上，要立足于自我奋斗，把自己的事情办好。

2019.12.13[/cp]

正真关键的在于中国的产业政策和产业补贴，这个是谈不下来的。

第一阶段主要是美国降低关税对价中国保护知识产权，放弃市场换技术，金融市场开放等议题。还有中国购买大量农产品，飞机等作为大礼包。

这些其实都好谈，其实加不加关税，我们飞机还是要买的，农产品也还是要买的，知识产权本身也应当加强保护。金融市场在货币管制的情况下其实开放的意义有限。

我实在没搞明白从五月份绕了那么大一圈子，加了那么多轮关税，双方你来我往口水和差旅费都花了不少，结果就是这么一个东西。

我估计第二阶段依然不会涉及到核心问题。第二阶段应该谈的是把中国的关税降到美国水平，并降低非关税壁垒，对价美国进一步降低关税。

第三阶段才是最难啃的骨头。包括如何限制补贴，企业中党委作用，数字贸易等涉及中国基本经济模式和政治模式的分歧。

现在不管是开心还是骂人，我觉得都还太早。

包总和川皇互相看彼此不顺眼很久了，但中美两国有广泛的利益勾连，不可能一下子完全决裂。

所以要先整个疑似协议，然后互相指责对方不守信用，继续下一轮开斗。打打停停多搞几轮，两国各自鸽派的生存空间就会越来越小。

等两国统治集团鸽派力量消耗差不多了，那才是全面开斗的时候。

这是一点小钱钱，你先拿去撕

你家里撕完了咱接着打

能有特朗普这么一个弄得美国人民这么意见分裂的总统不容易，能让他们撕得越厉害越好

给特朗普点甜头，他去和民主党继续死命撕吧多好

他迅速完蛋，来个NB的统一了美国的思想，齐心协力跟我们死磕不更难受了

再说了有句话不是说：协议都是用来撕毁的么

当年金门炮战，毛主席不也是帮了老蒋一下嘛，同时也把蒋美同盟撕裂了一下。

所以我觉得，达成一个协议，哪怕有退却也能接受，拘泥在一城一地的得失未必好，毕竟现在还没到渡江战役的时候，刚刚在重庆谈判，还是在敌强我弱

到目前为止，贸易战包括香港还是让国人更加团结，更加有了自信，下一步有的打

理由超简单。

12月13日，上证指数上涨1.78%。

这是获悉中美达成协议。

12月16日中午，上证指数上涨0.06%。

这是获悉达成具体内容后，股市对协议不太看好。