主题：两难的道路越来越狭窄 -- zhuhit

引入外来资本

现在的难度在于外部美元的收缩的大环境,国内内在房地产下降引起的通缩

恩,国内80后财务高杠杆的一普遍现象

而且合资车10多万一台，真心不贵，若住在郊区盘，至少在不够二套房首付的情况下添台车可以大幅改善生活质量。

贷款150万的话，初步推断男主税后年总收入应该15万以上，如果女主税后年收入8万的话，这个家可以维持。因为每个月的到手工资收入毕竟只占收入的一半，他们指的应该是用这个还贷不够吧，这就叫哭穷。还有公积金和年终奖呢，这才是大头。

谁也不想失业，谁也不想生病，摊到事儿了谁不窘迫。

国内从改开到现在，资产一直都比较廉价。我个人觉得，应该尽量减少浪费，争取尽可能多的获取资产。

进口车也好，苹果手机也好，对于有钱人来说无所谓。但是国内很多人非常的脑残，包括我自己的很多亲戚朋友，明明经济条件不好，还非得给老外大把大把送钱，以显得自己“高端大气上档次”。

我的有些亲戚朋友，明明5、6万元的国产车就可以了，非得多花10多万，买一辆德国的“国民牌”轿车，以为自己就比普通国民高人一等了。真搞不明白他们怎么想的，一点都不为自己的未来做打算。

身边大多数人有车，在下就不买车，工作地远？辞工，找离家步行十五分钟范围的，钱少的工作自然压力亦少，少去医院便也赚了。

F大师可以指点她投资

成功的好为人师的经济学者，蒙市餐饮业优秀模范，河内知名的加拿大企业主，多好的榜样

2000四川大学法律本科的，一直在房地产业作法律工作。

绿城花老板之后下岗。

北京的

外资会买给鬼城提供社会服务的产业吗？

资产未必能转化为利润，花大钱建了没收入白搭。白送没人要

请见上面修改（黑体）给出的看图方法。

一看图就明白了。

说“低温不足以解释（今年8月）这么大的下降”，还不如说“高温不足以解释2013年8月那么大的升高”更有说服力。在图中，2013年8月的升高看起来更加“不正常”。

about the way I have been posting:

1) if you can't model tgchina, you can't model the global capital market.

2) "white" never really understands china, how do you say in English: 四中全會, 强渡长江: 用孩子喂狼, 资本(信息)市场对外开放, 带动产业升级 ?

3) in a way, and in some areas, 马克思主义毛粉丝 such as "陈王奋起挥黄钺", "hullo" (not personally commenting ) understands white more than white themselves, and they have written many very outstanding posts.

but fundamentally 马克思主义毛主义是宗教, 不是制度/system, period.

and it looks like, 中共高层, or some of it, "get it", to some extent: 走出爱因斯坦电梯 of 马克思主义毛主义, in a very twisted 测地线 "china model".

with that, 保持毛林共识政治体制下， 中共高层 "用孩子喂狼, 资本信息市场开放, 强渡长江", to further normalize china with Uncle Sam managed global heatbath, 带动产业升级, 与美国为首的世界资本主义继续接轨

4) Chinese as an information processing language is fundamentally slow, although personally I have to read bilingually, even in physics, most of the time, but I have to type in English, a lot of faster.

5) mostly my posts are some kind of notes, more of "outline", with its logic of more of social physics, hard to read and understand, for almost anybody, and when I read some of my past posts myself, I sometimes have problems too.

now, let's get to business.

Part I

basic logic

1.

white's 理想模型 (kind of 原教旨资本主义, in terms of economics, with my physics modifications)

社会经济系统=耗散系统, 革新， 增长， 不惜一切代价,and as such, 分配, 劳动人民福利=次要目标;

劳动力, 土地, 能源, 资本, 信息: 稀缺性重要性依次递增, 反过来依次递减;

global capital market=fundamentally 信息处理系统

社会政治法律系统: white's 普世体制, 配合资本市场/信息处理系统;

2.

global capital market as a 信息处理系统

新的信息是私有的， 局域的, and capital market emerges, develops and grows with 私人资本(信息)套利 mechanism: those market participants (whose 信息是私有的， 局域的) come to market to 套利, because individual market participants all think that they own some unique 信息 (or their understanding of public 信息) in their business area, vs other private market participants.

and in the process of private and individual market participants' 资本市场套利交易, they produce information for themselves and others, and most importantly for the system as a whole;

without constant and dynamic information feed (or "energy" feed) produced by global capital market 24/7, 社会经济系统 as a 耗散系统 would fall apart, 革新， 增长 is totally impossible.

反证: 如果 all 信息从来是"公有"的, easy for market to price in or for central planners to model "产业升级" etc, then 社会经济系统 would not be a 耗散系统 anymore, it would be "completely" near and/or at equilibrium state, then 社会经济系统 will face the risk of maximization of entropy, 失去信息动量梯度, "热寂". 人类社会经济系统进步停止.

this is why in a post industrial capitalist economy, TG's "central planning" model is facing a fundamental problem: 信息和信息处理机制 (basically a real and internationally-open capital market) 缺失 for Chinese society, at least economically. 产业升级无从谈起.

3.

obviously, when those dynamically produced 新的信息(私有的， 局域的)充分反映 or priced in the capital market (EMH model)， it also helps 融资 to work out as another important function of global capital market.

by the way, as 陈王奋起挥黄钺 posted, a big chunk of global capital market is consisted of 劳动人民's mutual fund, pension, etc, 所谓人民资本主义.

vs. TGchina's 人民房地产地道战, 共军辽沈战役.

Part II

it looks like 中共高层, or some of it understands this "model" of global capital market fairly well, to some extent

共军辽沈战役 (past 30 years of tgchina):

did very well in terms of "劳动力, 土地, 能源" 资本主义化 with huge scales, in mainland china, much better than those other Asian countries of "TPP"

四中全會, 强渡长江: 用孩子喂狼, 资本(信息)市场对外开放, 带动产业升级

I have posted quite bit on that, and it looks 上证指数 is thinking that way as well.

politically, ideologically, 当然是

打左灯, 向右拐;

that is why I keep saying the social science in mainland china=BS of BS, and have your children started on physics and English yesterday.

Part III

四中全會, 强渡长江: 用孩子喂狼, 资本(信息)市场对外开放, 带动产业升级:

胜算很大

why? as I posed before, tgchina has an unique and super powerful "度量结构"凝聚力, vs other TPP Asian countries of basically 脑残, and Europe of basically 脑废 (极端民粹主义, as "hullo" posted), and japan 脑老;

with all that, more likely, china will continue to be a growth driver of global economy, only second to US.

potential game changers or road blocks:

HK: I think chairman X mishandled Hong Kong a little bit, 忘记共军忽悠战术了, but HK is not a big deal;

US/TPP may not be a big deal either, and I don't know much about it.

that is why I keep saying that Uncle Sam will likely come into a deal with 共军 when Hillary comes to the office, most likely.

all good?:)

-------------

appendix

1. about peak oil------

peak oil is more likely a "fake" model

http://www.lapsedphysicist.org/2014/08/12/looking-ahead-30-40-years-a-risky-business/

the challenge facing today's global capitalism is information challenge, making worse by all kinds of social sciences "BS" all over the world.

2.

some mathematical physics of "度量结构", in terms of GR.

"changshou did a great service with his following piece, without referencing complicated concepts such as "集合".

a 度量流形 is basically: locally 开集同胚, regionally/globally 微分同胚;

and with "时空是（某一类）度量流形", we have 一张全息屏,

and everybody is basically naked, as seen in that 全息屏"

时空对应在一张全息屏, "时空是（某一类）度量流形" [ 晓兵 ]

3.

信息处理最终是要回到热力学层次 (macroscopic or mesoscopic) 的, and human brain has a fundamental problem of 脑热, or "退相干和噪声源", indiviudally.

个体个人 helps 产生信息 locally， however, 信息处理 is more of 全局的, 市场的.

witten1

"分子被束缚在一蛋白质“脚手架”上，这“脚手架”即是退相干和噪声源同时可能又保护了在复合体中的相干激发并且在提升能量传输效率方面扮演了重要的角色（自然界真是天才，一个看上去明显有损效率的东西，可是同时却又在提升效率，这有点像bootstrap）。"

【原创】量子生物学II - 西西河

www.cchere.com/article/3830428

Dec 31, 2012 - 光合作用给地球上几乎所有的生命提供了能量。 ... 这些分子被束缚在一蛋白质“脚手架”上，这“脚手架”即是退相干和噪声源同时可能又保护了在复合

4.

"熵力的基本假设是全息原理和等效原理"

Erik Verlinder 时空可以对应在一张全息屏上 晓兵 字9076 2014-09-17 14:48:33

http://www.ccthere.com/alist/3965802

5.

"changshou"'s GR piece, "几何直观地介绍广义相对论的时空以及大爆炸模型", is just outstanding, I will do some post about the 2nd part of his piece, "时空分解与演化", there are very few physicists in mainland who can come to "changshou" level.

and in terms of 量子生物学, few can match "witten1".

china has long way to go in term of "ALGO" power.

partially because of that,

"中共毛泽东物理世界观尽头? 美军重返亚太, 兵临城下" [ 晓兵 ]

6.

全球资本信息市场: "群体大脑" model, 规范场

鸿乾

"现在的计算机中，你存一个图像就是一个图像，你取出来，还是那个图像，非常精确，如果有所误差，你就根本取不出来。而且这个图像的记忆和对这个图像的理解一点关系都没有，记忆是记忆，理解是理解，记忆是存储体中的，理解是存储外面的软件的运行的结果。因此，这个计算技术体系中，不可能产生类别和联系，即使有，也不是自然产生的，而是外部刻意追求而加进去的。扩大了讲，就是说，基本上没有可能产生智能"

"如果有所误差，你就根本取不出来": not a road block in terms of 产生智能:

其实"误差"是局域的, and gauge theory规范场's 局域相位变换 can be a model to handle that kind of challenge, in theory, in practice, we have computing power and other issues.

financial market as 规范场, a Russian physicist has written a book on that, with Chinese translation, and I have not read it yet.

what is the point?

全球信息资本主义方兴未艾!

四中全會, 强渡长江: 用孩子喂狼, 资本信息市场开放,带动产业升级, just do it, baby, how bloody it may be.

7.

http://www.ccthere.com/alist/3808130

O 我的理解是这样的：类比和联想其实是神经系统自然的动作 花1 鸿乾 字1535 2014-04-01 11:26:10

．．．．O "类比和联想的神经基础", & "量子力学的心脏” 晓兵 字10753 2014-04-03 16:07:40

．．．．O 嗯，这个要好好想一想 原手 字434 2014-04-01 12:03:27

．．．．．O 量子 computer can do "类比和联想" 花2 晓兵 字15262 2014-04-01 12:41:03

．．．．．．O 向你推荐这本书 原手 字117 2014-04-01 23:54:30

．．．．．．．O 自然语言: 熱輻射, 腦殘 risk 晓兵 字10281 2014-04-02 11:35:12

．．．．．．O 熊起:人脑没有内外态区别,存储是树状增量并行,非线性寻址 晓兵 字3415 2014-04-01 23:17:20

．．．．．．．O 熊起做了很好的评论。但是谁是熊起？ 鸿乾 字362 2014-04-02 14:21:29

．．．．．．．．O 黑猩猩记得是因为working memory比人的发达 原手 字43 2014-04-02 19:38:15

．．．．．．．．．O 布洛赫波 to make 人 into 黑猩猩(:) 晓兵 字3644 2014-04-02 23:52:25

．．．．．．．．O "人只能记忆理解了的东西，没有纯的存储" 晓兵 字6145 2014-04-02 19:16:30

．．．．．．．．O 熊起:图灵机拥有内态，纸带上的输入信息可以影响内态 花1 晓兵

1.

共军没有退路, "强渡长江"=a must, 辽沈战役打不下去了.

2.

共军"外战外行, 内战内行", HK mess is just an another case;

共军"外战外行": 忽悠(headfakes)战， 实战， 基本上分不清,百战百败, period.

but 共军 always survives, one of reasons=共军"内战内行".

and I think 共军 top knows that, that is why all these Chinese media's 国际战略， 蓝天大海 model=BS.

3.

the ALGO of 共军"内战内行" is "毛林共识模型", likely still working inside mainland china, but it is facing a 成本高涨 issue now, HK mess is going to make it worse.

中共国内政治出问题， 可能性很小, but never say never.

Chairman X has been in charge of TG's HK affairs since 2007, HK is his baby, now it is becoming a little wolf, sneaking into Chairman Xs' otherwise beautiful and powerful office.

how he is going to get this little wolf under control?

4.

美军亚太围堵 tgchina

at this point, Uncle Sam is very blunt to Russian and tgchina: it is not about 普世制度 vs Marxism any more, it is all about Uncle Sam as a sole market maker of today's global capitalism.

if you guys want to play "my" game, then I am the boss, period. and in front of my "office",

you guys have to give up your military power, period.

of course, whether Uncle Sam can make it is an another issue.

in tgchina's case: Mao fxxked uncle sam pretty badly in Korea and Vietnam, and TG had "stolen" a lot of money from Unlce Sam post 911 crisis.

from Uncle Sam's point of view: Uncle TG has to pay back Uncle Sam somehow, or it is hard to do business again between the two.

the way chairman X handles HK: he is kind of weak, just like his red gen II buddies, and just like their fathers, in terms of ALGO power, and TG represents the political elite (the only social elite) of Chinese nation, a nation with very little ALGO power, if any, due to its lack of physics and math, and its lack of interacting with global heatbath in china's 5k years of history.

a basically 近亲繁殖 issue， 缺乏和外界信息能量交换, and still feeling great although trapped inside 爱因斯坦电梯, now with that 爱因斯坦电梯 remodeled by 马克思主义毛主义 and 改革开放's huge dollar piling up.

in that sense, 共军没有退路, "强渡长江", TG has to make it, for Chinese nation to move forward.

I think, that more than likely, and after all said and done, 共军 will make it.

individually, we are all local, 局域, trapped in some kind of 爱因斯坦电梯, one way or another;

however, "度量结构" is collectively, regionally or globally produced in a 广义相对论弯曲时空世界, kind of like "跳爱因斯坦电梯", jumping from one "爱因斯坦电梯" to another, with 规范变换 ("局域相位变换").

for example, "hullo" is largely a 马克思主义毛粉丝, but his analysis of 民粹主义民主自由 "disaster" in many Asian and other developing countries is right on money, vs highly effectiveness and productiveness of 毛林共识's model in tgchina.

and many of his political and economic analysis of china and other countries make a lot of senses: he offers some "value" from his 马克思主义毛"爱因斯坦电梯", and if you are not in there with him, you are missing an important piece of information.

because, TGchina is running 毛林共识 ALGO, if you don't have information to model Tgchina, you can't model the global capital market. your model will be a piece of trash, likely.

and in a way, 民粹主义民主自由 going extreme in Europe is basically putting EU into a deflation trap.

in that sense, 毛林共识 model may still have quite bit of life in tgchina, as bad as it sounds, 臭豆腐， 闻起来臭， 吃着香, still working to some extent, kind of why TG top is and will be still running 毛林共识 ALGO for the foreseeable future.

and you can't get this kind of analysis from white's world, because there is no 毛林共识 branded "爱因斯坦电梯" there. they got their share of problems in this information world.

I type in English, because it is a lot of faster.