主题：特斯拉究竟是在做什么？ -- 大山猫

这个深度以前还真是没想到。美国的国本现在都在新能源上了。谴责中国制造把石油价格推上去是没用的，必须在能源来源上发生突破。

不用说什么再工业化，新能源做不到，美国的崩溃首先就先到了，后面就是为石油世界大战吧。

这样看，特斯拉的成功是人类的福音，不成功则必成仁了。

这个股票应该买。大山猫的推销力没得说。

乔布斯还只是技术大棋，商业大棋。

Musk借着特斯拉SpaceX和Solarcity，缩减外包，增加就业，绿色环保。

是绑架政治，绑架舆论。

好好的混合动力，广告词是进气栅格流体大灯... 还扯上雪铁龙了...

国内整个气氛都很够呛 从产研到消费

I am not surprised by his conclusion.

you can sense a slow formation of political consensus among business and political elites.

Shale gas exhaustion rate is very high (e.g., natural gas--you can not cut short the production given the below-the-ground pressure). I am afraid of a sudden fall in production rate less than 10 years down the road. Engineers in that industry can read the data and they understand that well.

I think even people in the energy industry can sense the urgency of new source of energy--America must cut its gas consumption. Given more than half of the gasoline consumption comes out of daily commuter's transportation need, the easiest way is to cut down the car consumption of gasoline.

In the future, maybe only airplane can still burn gasoline. All other industries will be forced to consume energy from electricity--this is the long term perspective as mentioned by Elon Musk several times in his interview.

就算美国贫富分化没有今天这么悬殊，制造业没有流失，中产阶级实际收入这些年再涨三倍，仍然是赶不上石油价格上涨的速度。目前美国的油价比其他国家仍然偏低，应该已经是“维稳”价格了。

石油价格的升高，从供需看要归结为中国的崛起，从货币看是美元自己慢性通胀，但是归根结底石油在能源上的地位没有相应的替代品，那么谁控制石油，谁就可以在食物链中利用能源来“抽税”，这个感受在中国大家对两桶油都有切身感受，美国实际上也存在但是比较隐蔽，这些年只要是干石油工业的都赚的脑满肠肥。

各行各业的人起早贪黑，创新挖潜，专利PK， 到最后却是眼看着经济果实，自己的血汗不可控制的大量流向能源业，从中东的王爷到西方石油公司，真是打落牙齿和血吞。因为石油对现代世界是从工业到生活的各个角落都渗透过了，人的原始欲望，对生活水平的提高，无一不是通过增加对石油的使用去实现的。

能源价格的不断提高，也说明了一个本质的问题，人类文明的扩充，已经越来越强烈的感受到有限能源限制的压力。当能源成本提高到对经济活动的发展得不偿失的地步时，就是文明扩充停下脚步的时候，不是找到新的能源，就是通过彼此PK继续千万年来自然界的达尔文法则了。

主要恐怕是大多数的人受不了那个加速减速的过程。我坐飞机都有些难受，要是火箭加速度。恐怕那些能玩过山车的会受的了，不过多数是小年轻了。

马车

Cheney is small potato. There are masterminds behind him. Those NewCons have their foreign policies based on a critical assumption: peak oil theory.

Please google "peak oil". It has been out since late 1990s and early 2000s, based on solid mathematical modeling and engineering data (FYi, all PetroChina's wells have peaked in production--so China's domestic oil production has a time bomb ticking already). They sense a global peaking in oil production AND THEY ARE AFRAID OF 文明扩充停下脚步. The Iraq War has a sole purpose to ensure that AT LEAST American 文明扩充 will not 停下脚步 just because of oil constraint. As to the inevitable contraction in Europe/Asia/Africa, American NewCons clearly do not care at all.

The peak oil assumption totally missed out two issues, 1)the shale gas tech., which was pioneered by Mitchell; 2)Iraq is so costly/difficult to control (a lesson after 2003)

American elites totally ignored their European allies' interests, and believe that control of choke points, such as Afganistan, could contain a weak Russia and a formerly weak China. In the end, the 2000s Bush gov. alienated almost everybody in the world, except China (a cheap ally out of economic agreement--China buys U.S. treasury notes).

You have to admit that NewCons have one thing right: there is PEAK OIL for CONVENTIONAL OIL FIELDS, and there WILL be an inevitable PEAK MOMENT FOR shale oil (oilsands in Canada too) TOO.

America shall not rest its security on an temporary bandit solution--shale oil. It should expand the boundary of energy source for its LONG TERM GROWTH AND PROSPERITY, therefore, another group of elites kicked out NewCons from the Bush adminstration and their main message: to re-focus America's efforts on new sources of energy or at least replacement technology to REDUCE DEPENDENCY ON OIL (both FOREIGN and domestic). Currently, America's daily oil consumption is around 16-18 million barrels, half of which is related to the use of car by average Joes.

That's why Tesla must succeed. China is also investing in EV tech (China's daily oil consumption is already 8m barrels and it is still growing fast since China has overtaken America as THE LARGEST CAR PRODUCER IN THE WORLD), but its political effort is often self-contradictory (central gov. vs. local gov.; fights among different industries, eg., oil vs. electric generators). So China and America could start around the same time (2008-2009), but America could finally win out given its superior political and financial infrastructures.

If the world still grow under the current model, we will need 100m barrels of oil every DAY just to maintain our current way of life. Human beings will hit the wall sooner or later and THE WHOLE WORLD NEED A BRUTAL WAR TO DRAMATICALLY SHRINKING THE POPULATION(thus oil consumption) TO meet THE CURRENT RESOURCE CONSTRAINT, if there is no tech. breakthrough.

这又引发一个问题。大大增加的电力需求从哪里来？Solarcity的太阳能电池发电成本到底是多少？能跟传统能源差不多么？

拿出干高铁的力度与劲头，跨越到电动车不是问题。看来中美高层对电动车还是认为不成熟，不像高铁。

其实他们也是摸着石头过河，奥巴马上台后鼓吹的太阳能，高铁已经先后破产了，电车，自动驾驶还有待观望，能不能成功很难说。

从08年以来，太阳能发电量增长了10倍不止。对于一般家庭来说，太阳能发电是最廉价的，特别是在西南部。

如果你是指那个太阳能板公司，那只不过是政治斗争罢了。美国政府只不过赔了几亿美圆，这在一年几万亿的联邦预算里，连九牛一毛都不算。

至于高铁，奥巴马根本没有想认真搞，当然这个想法本身就很愚蠢，认真搞只不过是多赔钱而已。