主题：闲聊 改革利益得而复失的可能性 -- 子玉

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就我所接触到的多数人来说，生活质量和就业范围与国内的发展无关。有关的是父母来美签证容易了一些。

“但恰恰由于记者的眼球、喷子的跟进，使得中产的宣泄恰恰损害了他们的长远利益，并造成当下情绪的极端化。”

我也有同感，中产阶级们向往西方生活，青睐西方品牌，对本土品牌不屑一顾，例如服侍，汽车，电子产品等。可西方品牌留给中国的只有低端体力劳动岗位。本土品牌崛起了，才会在中国产生更多的中产阶级工作岗位。可现在整个社会的媒体和舆论都着力报道国产品牌的负面新闻，对西方品牌的负面新闻则故意视而不见甚至屏蔽掉（例如某些汽车论坛）。从而导致消费者对国产品牌的芥蒂，压抑国产品牌的发展，直接会减少国内中产阶级岗位。

且不说在国外算不算二等国民，就是本国人，中产的经济政治地位也从没高过农民，水管工，码头工，卡车司机等体力劳动者。中国恰恰是原来过分拔高了中产的地位

the rise of Japan and China is quite different.

Japanese export high value-added industrial products, keep various design, manufacturing and R&D jobs in house (esp., in car and electronics industries).

China has no global manufacturing might--it has only global "assembly" power--based on its cheap labor policy and suppressive social policy.

日本崛起早期在国际产业链的地位也就和现在的中国差不多。日本成为高品质高附加值的象征也是后来的事情。

我有个60几岁的欧洲老师说过，她小时候made in japan便宜且质量不好，和现在made in china是一样的感觉。

1960s.

In 1950s, Japan was also low cost labor provider, main source of shoes or textiles.

Japan upgraded its industries fast.

It has been 30 years and Guangdong is still West's main source of cheap labor and textile/shoe/toy products.

从明治维新就开始了，日本的工业化体系在二战前后基本完成。尽管二战中日本工业体系一片废墟，但是工业化培养的整个人力资本保留下来。战后借着美国转移产业的风潮，日本才上位的。

你对比一下中国。尤其广东，30年前是前线，有什么工业？

日本从明治维新开始就靠这个出口来换汇的，日本在二战结束时候，已经是一个工业国了，整个体系的人力资本完整保留，也形成了适应工业化的社会体系，和中国这个农业体系不是一个概念。

50年代的日本和中国，就好比现在的中国和印度。

in Japan. You misread my post. My point: Japan did have low labor cost before and was once consumer product exporter to the world. It was true even in 1950s. Japan took advantage of the golden age and increased labor pay fast in post WWII era.

I agree that Japan had heavy industry before WWII, and it could make Zero fighter too. Otherwise, it would not challenge America in the pacific. But Its industrial base was quite weak compared with both Europe and America.

BTW, for post-WWII Japan, two sources of high pay jobs: the modern car industry/consumer electronics industry were all created after WWII with American technology.

Japan exported the whole car to States, thus various high-pay jobs stay in Japan (e.g, R&D, engine making, main component)

China is still not the case by now. China has a booming passenger car industry now, but most engines are still sourced from Japanese/European or American providers.

确实在30年中，我们汽车产业是不思进取。有一点高铁谈判的劲头就不是现在这个买办局面。

不过，30年前的中国的整体工业实力和与之配套的社会结构教育水平恐怕和日本二战后还是不能比的。

flower up.