主题：【文摘】美元或有望延续升势 -- Davi

今年正是所谓开门红。

2005年伊始，美元即实现了几个月来的罕见涨幅。在之前3个月几乎马不停蹄地连续下滑之后，美元终于重拾升势，动摇了近来在市场占上风的看跌美元者的信心。

本周走势应该可以提供些许线索，用以判断美元此次回调是否还有持续空间。无论未来走势如何，分析师认为欧元近期都不大可能重新上探前段时间达到过的高点。欧元最近创下历史新高是在去年12月31日，当时达到1.3660美元。

美元反弹将欧元在2004年最后一个月中实现的涨幅悉数抹去，其中大多是在交投清淡且起伏不定的假日交易中完成的。上周五尾盘前，美元兑欧元和英镑汇率均处于6周高点，兑瑞士法郎汇率则是两个月来的最高水平。上周四，美元兑日圆创下3周高点。

然而，许多交易员认为美元的回调势头已如强弩之末，预计美元或将在当前价位附近盘整。

这次美元反弹来势汹汹，令许多人猝不及防。交易员表示，去年的最后几周里，许多大型投资者都减少了看跌美元的空头头寸；一些分析师据此判断，交易员们将在1月上旬卷土重来，将欧元抬至历史新高。

事实并非如此。一些规模较大的银行和对冲基金认为欧元升势已经过甚，因而纷纷开始抛售欧元。这迫使那些曾预计美元将进一步走软的市场人士回补空头。受此影响，欧元在上周二前即降至1.3250美元的低点。

决策者们也助了美元一臂之力。上周二，美国联邦公开市场委员会(Federal Open Market Committee, 简称FOMC)发布了12月份政策会议的会谈纪要，这份文件显示，一些美国联邦储备委员会(Fed)官员对通货膨胀压力的担心情绪有所增加。该会谈纪要将人们的关注重点重新引向经济数据，而上周的经济数据又表现不错。

此外，美国财政部长(Treasury Secretary)约翰?斯诺(John Snow)上周五重申美国将奉行强势美元政策。斯诺表示，布什政府的政策重点是削减预算赤字，并承诺2006年的财政预算将“非常紧”。而且，他没有一如既往地表示汇率应由市场表示。长期以来，市场决定汇率的表述一直被交易员们视为政府乐意看到美元走软的信号。

诚然，斯诺的讲话并不说明政策发生变化。但他所选用的措辞及其终于作出的对收紧预算的承诺还是在市场上发挥了影响。人们尤其注意到，斯诺的讲话同新议会走马上任发生在同一周。

斯诺的讲话令美元延续自劳工部(Labor Department)公布12月份非农就业人数报告以来的升势。这份报告显示，美国12月份非农就业人数增加15.7万人，11月份数据被向上修正为增加13.7万人。失业率持稳于5.4%。12月份数据低于普遍预期的增加17.5万人。美元起初走低，但欧元很快就遭遇阻力，之后投资者就开始买进美元，将其一路推升至6周高点。

纽约汇市上周五尾盘，欧元兑1.3083美元，低于上周四尾盘的1.3171美元。美元兑瑞士法郎汇率也从上周四尾盘的1.1743瑞士法郎升至1.1851瑞士法郎。英镑降至1.8686美元，上周四尾盘为1.8749美元。美元从105.03日圆降至104.81日圆。

欧元于上周五创下1.3015美元的盘中低点，较去年12月31日创下的高点下跌4.72%。

这是自2004年2月25日到3月3日间下跌5.0%以来，欧元创下的最大跌幅。欧元兑日圆汇率上周五也走低，欧元兑136.80日圆，较12月30日的历史高点141.62日圆跌去3.4%。

纽约IDEAGlobal的外汇策略师凯罗(Sean Callow)也认为欧元眼下不太可能升至历史高点。他认为未来几周内欧元将处于1.30美元-1.3450美元的区间内。

凯罗表示，欧元兑美元汇率的看涨和看跌头寸都很多，交易员们随时都可能看到获利回吐的机会，因而不会轻易大举建立美元长期头寸。

与此同时，法国巴黎银行(BNP Paribas S.A., 13110.FR)驻伦敦的资深外汇交易策略师斯坦纳德(Ian Stannard)表示，在Fed会谈纪要公布后，目前市场开始关注经济增长和通货膨胀状况，这意味著欧元上升空间将十分有限。他说，正因为这样，加之欧元区经济数据又很疲软，欧元应该会承受沽压。

本周的数据应该会让美元窄幅波动。一些数据可能会推助美元走高：市场预计周四公布的零售销售数据将上升1.0%，11月份的批发库存数据将上升0.8%。12月份生产者价格指数(PPI)将于周五公布，在Fed会谈纪要公布后，这个数据将会额外引起关注，不过市场预计该数据将会下降0.2%。

11月份的贸易逆差可能会让美元看跌者得到一些安慰。预计周三公布的该数据将为536亿美元。

分析师称，投资者将在下个月一系列重大国际事件发生前持谨慎态度。巴基斯坦和伊拉克将在1月下旬举行大选，在此之前投资者必将谨慎出牌，另外七大工业国(Group of Seven, 简称G7)将于2月4日召开会议。

如果G7会议传出信号，各国将更为紧密合作来解决美国经常项目赤字问题，那么美元面临的最大压力将被减轻。

另外，预计欧洲央行(European Central Bank)将在周四的政策会议上维持2%的利率不变。英国央行(Bank of England)预计也会按兵不动。而日圆将从日本11月份贸易余额数据中获得支撑。

It's a Dollar-Eat-Dollar World Here in Asia: William Pesek Jr.

Jan. 12 (Bloomberg) -- ``What about the dollar?''

The question surprised even Kofi Annan, not a man easily stumped by reporters. The United Nations secretary-general merely smiled and shrugged his shoulders when pressed on whether the dollar's slide was hurting Asia.

It happened last week in Jakarta, where Annan was meeting with global leaders on relief efforts for the Dec. 26 tsunami that killed more than 160,000 around Asia. The question seems to mark a shift of the dollar's drop from solely a financial issue to a socioeconomic one, too.

Here in Asia, the dollar's drops last year of 7.1 percent against the euro and 4.3 percent to the yen prompted consternation at the highest government levels. Some threatened to sell their currencies to help exporters stay competitive and many urged the U.S. to stabilize its currency. All in vain -- the dollar yesterday dropped the most in more than two weeks.

Yet all the hand wringing over the dollar's swoop ignores the fact it's been a boon for emerging Asian markets and, by extension, some of this region's economies.

It's pushed massive amounts of liquidity into developing- nation debt, property, commodities and other assets here in Asia. The trend has been particularly acute thanks to a surge in investment into China, and it's helping the global economy run at its fastest pace in two decades.

When, Or If

The upshot is that Asia's outlook depends more and more on when, or if, the dollar stops sliding.

``The sentiment towards the dollar is driving financial markets, and no other factors come close in impact,'' says Andy Xie, chief Asia economist at Morgan Stanley.

A reversal of the trend might do more harm than good to the region's economies, pulling out of Asian markets money that's holding down bond yields and boosting stocks.

A bottoming out of the dollar may signal a peak of all riskier assets globally. As such, it's likely to determine how 2005 pans out for many investors.

If the dollar remains weak, 2005 turns out similar to 2004 with asset values gaining further and the global economy strong; a convincing bottom may bring major reversals in asset markets.

``The overvaluation of commodities and emerging market debt and stocks, for example, could correct quickly,'' Xie says. ``A sharp slowdown in the emerging economies as well as the global economy would follow.''

Remember When

If you doubt the dollar's linchpin role in Asia, think back to 1995 when it fell from 100 yen to 78 yen. That brought a rush of hot money to Asia. Cracks in this region's economy began surfacing a year later as the dollar regained strength, prompting investors to flee Asia faster than they might've otherwise.

No, a sudden dollar rally won't precipitate financial crisis in Asia. This region's financial systems are in far better shape than a decade ago; foreign-denominated debt is down and currency reserves are plentiful. China's boom is boosting growth in economies from South Korea to Vietnam.

Still, riskier assets that have been a one-way bet -- a winning one -- in recent years might be in for some bumpy times. That's not all bad; so long as the dollar's rise is orderly, it may take some air out of asset bubbles around the globe.

After all, what worries observers like Xie are the imbalances popping up in the investment world. Many global investors with scant knowledge of emerging markets like Asia's hand money over to hedge funds. As the fast-growing number of Asian hedge funds invest this cash, a global asset reallocation is occurring.

Can't Lose?

Xie says that's causing a ``massive inflation of emerging market assets, which results in a better performance of emerging markets in the short term and validates global investors' increased allocation into emerging markets.''

In other words, some Asia investors may think they can't lose, just as many did before the region's 1997-1998 crisis.

In normal times, this flow of funds out of the U.S. would've raised interest rates, slowing the outflow. Because the dollar is the key currency for central bank reserves and global trade, the outflow, after inflating emerging markets, returns to the U.S. as central banks buy U.S. Treasuries.

Thus the U.S. escapes the main consequence of a weak currency -- surging bond yields -- and a weak dollar is expansionary for global liquidity and Asia's economies.

There's a dark side to all this, though.

``The power of the weak-dollar psychology is that it makes global investors oblivious of the usual concerns about emerging markets,'' Xie explains. ``Hence, the risk premium has virtually disappeared.''

Typically, corporate governance problems surfacing in economies like China would cause major market correction. They haven't yet. If recent troubles at China Aviation Oil (Singapore) Corp. -- which lost $550 million trading derivatives -- are the tip of the iceberg, emerging-market investors may be in for a rough year. Ditto for a surge in global oil prices.

For now, though, Asian governments hoping for a weaker dollar should be careful what they wish for.