主题：【中金评论】2004年中央经济工作会议 -- Chieftain

范维维，哈继铭（首席经济学家）

事件:

中共中央、国务院召开的中央经济工作会议12月3日至5日上午在北京举行。新华社在当晚发布了会议公告。公告阐述了调控当局对当前经济形势的判断，提出了2005年经济工作的总体要求及六项主要任务，并从8个方面进行了部署。

评论:

对中央经济工作会议公告的解读之所以重要，是因为它传递了中央政府对当前经济形势的最新判断，以及今后工作的方向。但由于它的高度概括性和全面性，它并不涉及操作层面的具体政策措施。根据我们的解读，我们认为：

1. 相对于03年的中央经济工作会议，中央政府对当前经济形势表示出更“谨慎”的乐观。其对当前经济形势的定性为“当前，各方面加快改革发展的积极性很高，经济自主增长活力增强，结构调整步伐加快，明年国民经济继续保持平稳较快发展的有利条件较多。但我们也要清醒地看到，当前加强和改善宏观调控取得的成效还是阶段性的，经济运行中的矛盾和问题仍然比较突出，还存在不少长期积累、制约全局的深层次矛盾和问题。”

（对比：在2003年中央工作会议的会议公告中，对当时经济形势的评论仍是“…国民经济持续较快发展…我国经济发展、民族团结、社会稳定，全面建设小康社会开局良好…坚持用改革和发展的办法认真加以解决。特别是对新出现的苗头性和局部性问题，要见微知著，防患于未然，采取果断措施，努力加以解决。

2. 宏观调控将是2005年经济工作的重点。短期来说，重中之重是控制通胀于固定资产投资规模扩张的压力。无论是在6项主要任务还是8方面具体的工作部署中，宏观调控的内容均列首位。中央对当前的通胀以及投资规模过大的压力非常重视。央行在其3季度货币政策执行报告中也对此表示出忧虑。因此，我们认为短期内调控的重点将放在对物价上涨以及投资增长的控制上。

具体措施方面，2005年将实行稳健的财政政策和货币政策。在落实加强和改善宏观调控的各项政策措施时，“区别对待、有保有压”的原则将继续；经济手段和法律手段将得到更多的重视，市场配置资源的基础性作用将更好地发挥。

（对比：2003年的中央经济工作会议提出：“坚持扩大内需的方针，继续实施积极的财政政策和稳健的货币政策，保护好、引导好、发挥好各方面加快发展的积极性…”）

3. 中央对提高农业综合生产能力、促进农民增收的问题给予高度重视，“三农”工作将继续得到重视。（03年公告中也有类似内容）

4. 中长期来说，中央政府将注重经济结构的改善。这包括固定资产投资行业结构的优化、投资与消费关系的调整(在调整投资与消费的关系是要注重提高城乡居民消费能力，增强消费对经济增长的拉动作用)，以及产业结构的升级。具体来说，政府将更加注重企业自主创新能力的提高，注重对能源与资源的节约与有效利用，大力发展循环经济。在推进城镇化的同时要注意节约利用土地，保护农民利益。总的来说，加快经济结构调整和增长方式转变将是政府长期内追求的目标。

5. 2005年中央将着力推进各项改革，对各项改革措施的推进将更为重视，以解决中国经济中深层次的体制性弊端。包括：企业改革、非公有制经济的发展，财税体制改革、金融体制改革、行政管理体制改革，落实投资体制改革方案等等。然而，各项改革分别推出的时间及节奏需要具体的分析。

"控制通胀于固定资产投资规模扩张的压力"说明了近期利率汇率政策的思考点.

Like Fed Chairman Greenspan’s rhetoric, official standard line of Chinese policymakers is hard to interpret, by intention.

But we are happy to offer our takes on the communiqué:

How long will macro-adjustment stay? As the communiqué pointed out, “all comrades of the party should fully appreciate that macro-adjustment is necessary, long-term and challenging.” We read this as an endorsement from the apex of the communist party on the administration’s economic policies, since the party deems macro-adjustment as a concrete form of revamping the party’s governing power. So, macro-adjustment is also a party propaganda, and it’s going to stay for a long time.

What are major goals of macro-adjustment? As the communiqué laid out as the top priority, a stable and relatively rapid economy growth, which we read as 8-9% GDP growth, and basic price stability, which we read as around 3% headline annual CPI, are desirable. In the short-run, the administration will continue to control the excessive growth of fixed-asset investment and its aggregate scale, and we believe officials will be more comfortable to see below 20% y-o-y growth of fixed-asset investment. In the long-run, macro-adjustment is intended to increase the contribution from consumption to economy growth, thus optimizing relations between investment and consumption. To achieve these goals, the party pledged strong support to boost agriculture sector and increase farmer’s income level, in hope it will lift consumptions from both urban residents and rural dwellers.

What does “prudent” mean to monetary policy? As Wu Xiaoling, deputy governor of the PBoC, stated in Beijing on Nov. 30, “discrepancy between the growth of M2 and the sum of GDP growth and headline CPI likely will be further narrowing going forward.” We read this as a signal that money and credit supply likely will stay appropriately tight in 2005. Since controlling the excessive growth of fixed-asset investment and stabilizing price are short-term focus of macro-adjustment, we have adequate reason to believe that monetary policy will be moderately tightening-biased in 2005. The communiqué also emphasized the role of “market mechanism” and “economic approach” in allocating resources, which we read as a sign that moderate interest rate hikes at a measured pace (maximum 100bps) are possible in 2005.

Fiscal policy stance will be shifted from “proactive” to “prudent” in 2005. But what does “prudent”, again, mean? Chinese officials have intentionally avoided using “expansionary”, “neutral” or “contractive” in describing policy stance. While the fiscal policy has actually been expansionary after the Asian financial crisis, the administration has used the term “proactive” to label fiscal policy stance for the past seven years since 1998. The communiqué also shunned away from the term of “neutral fiscal policy” since it literally means “zero fiscal impulse” and may restrain the administration from being proactive when necessary. Prudent fiscal policy gives the administration maximum flexibility to accommodate different vested interest groups, which means transition to fiscal neutrality will be phased and gradual.

Why didn’t the communiqué mention reform of FX regime? At the sensitive market juncture, it’s wise not to add fuel to rampant speculations. As Chinese senior leaderships have emphasized again and again, a speculative environment and international pressures can only be counterproductive in terms of speeding up China’s reform of FX regime. We have noticed with interests that a recent report from the US Treasury Department to the Congress concluded again that China didn’t manipulate its currency, while instead highlighted ground works that China had laid down in order to move towards a more flexible FX regime, and we believe the Treasury Department is on the right course. The communiqué stated that China will further deepen “financial system reform” in 2005, and that includes reforming FX regime in our view.

高盛(Goldman Saches)亚太经济研究部董事总经理Sun Bae Kim八日表示人民币汇率终旧还是会动. 未来人民币在去年与今年便应跟随美元贬值的脚步缓升. 虽然人民币汇率没有调整, 但将来一年内还是最逐步反映.

高盛预测人民币汇率在未来三个月将缓升到8.07, 未来六个月升值到7.99, 未来12个月7.72.

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