主题：也来说说邓小平的功过 -- 达雅

2009-08-04 13:18

http://cid-36d976e82bb7123d.spaces.live.com/blog/cns!36D976E82BB7123D!404.entry

如果说有那一个相对成功的毛主义国家，我投古巴一票。古巴的成功表现在，第一是卡斯特罗长命百岁而比较廉洁；第二是没有父死子继，改成兄未死弟弟劳尔就继 了；第三是古巴尽管是南美发展最慢最穷的国家，但是人民相对比较满足；仍然真心要拯救水深火热中的美国人民；第四是最重要的，古巴从来没有真正出现饥荒， 反正笔者没有听说过。

美国遵守着肯尼迪与赫鲁晓夫约定的“不武力犯古”的条约，其中的一个原因，大概也是对“和平状态下古巴斯大林政权自动自杀定理”的信心。但是古巴目前看来政权的稳固程度，看来不比东方某大国差那里去。

最后，古巴是否也遵守城乡比例上特权最大化定律的约束？古巴城市人口比例官方数字是75%，似乎与城乡支持比例的限度大大不合。即使增加了部分对斯大林国 家特有的城乡人口误差的校正，也仍然不可能得出合理的城乡28分布。古巴人口就算是按“城市行政区”计算，非农业人口，也只有50%左右。显然，不可能支 持一个类似朝鲜或者中国那样比例的工业化，而这种工业化，更不可能与美国的工业程度相抗衡，挽救美国人民于富裕腐朽的水深火热之中。原因在那里呢？

笔者认为，答案恰恰就在于古巴与美国差距太大，所以从来没有尝试通过工业化强化古巴的地位。古巴生存的秘密就在于，古巴从来没有真正尝试工业化！

古巴一直到独立后的第15年，才宣布第一个工业化五年计划，这种速度，在斯大林社会里，算是倒数第一。古巴这种消极，就象澳洲的考拉一样，以其消极，换取 了长寿。如果古巴采纳了激进的毛主义革命家切格瓦拉大规模工业化的主张，那么古巴可能会变第二个柬埔寨。卡斯特罗明智地在1965年宣布成为苏联的小弟 弟，对于当时开始能够出口石油，提供放下碗骂娘能力的苏联来说，养活古巴这样一个小弟弟，实在是易如反掌。失意的切格瓦拉改行到南美玻利维亚学习《毛上帝的游击战》，没想到《原来是山寨版的军事天才》，职业革命家让业余的玻利维亚民兵轻而易举抓逮活的毙了，毛主义理想追星族又损失了一位漂亮的帅哥。

苏东巨变对古巴造成的压力更甚至朝鲜。如果卡斯特罗也象金将军正日一样成为工业化搞原子弹的民族英雄，古巴饿死的人会比朝鲜多得多。卡斯特罗的精明就在 于，再次放弃了工业化，在1995年为止的经济改革，关闭了几乎全部国企!——继续搞社会主义的卡斯特罗——比搞了半拉子资本主义市场经济的邓江胡朱温还 狠！！奇怪的是，按毛主义特权卫士的口径，古巴的国企工人，怎么就没死光呢？

古巴的通化钢铁厂关掉了，古巴的国企工人非但没有把投资古巴残存国企（主要是糖类食品业）的外来资本家活活打死，而且欢蹦乱跳地下岗转行，响应卡斯特罗的 号召发展农业和旅游业，用比20年傻逼工业化快得多的速度，在短短五年内古巴实现了去工业化，农业和旅游业成为古巴的经济支柱。所谓古巴75% 的城市人口，不知是否应该把住在城市种田的算农民呢？

发展农业为古巴带来了人口生存的物质基础，发展旅游业服务于北美到古巴体验社会主义主人翁的古巴美女的服务，庞大的水深火热中的美国消费者，为古巴赚到的美元，是朝鲜剥削农业饿死几百万国民出口粮食加导弹所得的几十倍！

由于古巴没有搞国企为核心的工业化，从而没有形成一个围绕着国企剥削社会经济的特权阶层，特权阶层的权力范围相对比较小，从而令卡斯特罗为代表的古巴特权者的廉洁，相对于毛主义的装腔作势，显得货真价实得多。

古巴无疑是最成功最伟大的毛主义斯大林国家。理由无他，它活下来啦！所谓好死不如赖活着，卡斯特罗他容易嘛！？卡斯特罗是一位明智的独

Although Batista was intent on lining his pockets, Cuba did flourish economically during his regime. Cuba's wages were among the world's highest;[74] according to the International Labor Organization, the average industrial salary in Cuba was the world's 8th highest in 1958, and the average agricultural wage was higher than in developed nations such as Denmark, West Germany, Belgium, or France.[74][75] Although a third of the population still lived in poverty, Cuba was one of the five most developed countries in Latin America.[76] Only 44% of the population was rural.[77]

Gross domestic product per capita was already about equal to that of Italy and significantly higher than that of countries such as Japan at the time, although Cuba's GDP was still only a sixth as large as that of the US.[74][78] According to the United Nations at the time, "one feature of the Cuban social structure [was] a large middle class".[78] Labour rights were also favourable - an eight-hour day had been established in 1933, long before other countries, and Cuban workers had a months's paid holiday, nine days' sick leave with pay, and six weeks' holiday before and after childbirth.[79]

Cuba also had Latin America's highest per capita consumption rates of meat, vegetables, cereals, automobiles, telephones and radios.[75][79][80]:186 Televisions per capita was the fifth highest in the world, and despite Cuba's small size, it had the world's 8th highest number of radio stations (160). According to the United Nations, Cubans read 58 daily newspapers during the late 1950s, with more newspapers being read only in three much more populous countries: Brazil, Argentina and Mexico.[81] People migrated to Havana at fast pace. Havana was the world's fourth most expensive city at the time,[69] and had more cinemas than New York.[76] The economy could not always keep up with demand, however - under Batista, Cuba had the highest telephone penetration in Latin America, but thousands of citizens were still waiting to be connected to the phone network, causing mass frustration.[77]

Moreover, Cuba's health service was remarkably developed. It had one of the highest numbers of doctors per capita - more than in the United Kingdom - and the third-lowest adult mortality rate in the world. According to the World Health Organization, the island had the lowest infant mortality rate in Latin America and the 13th lowest in the world - better than in France, Belgium, West Germany, Israel, Japan, Austria, Italy, Spain, and Portugal.[75][82][83]

Education spending in Cuba was, relatively, the highest in Latin America.[75] Cuba had the 4th highest literacy rate in the region at almost 80% according to the United Nations, higher than that of Spain.[81][82][83]

[edit] Stagnation and dissatisfaction

However, the United States was the frame of reference, not Latin America.[69][77] Cubans travelled to America, read American newspapers, listened to American radio, watched American television, and were attracted to American culture.[77] Middle class Cubans dreamed of the American economy and the gap between Cuba and the US increasingly frustrated many in the mid-1950s.[69] The middle class became increasingly dissatisfied with the administration, while labour unions supported Batista until the very end.[69][71]

There were large income disparities that were a result of the fact that Cuba's unionized workers enjoyed perhaps the most extensive privileges in Latin America.[84] Cuban labour unions had established limitations on mechanization and even bans on dismissals.[79] The labour unions' privileges were obtained in large measure "at the cost of the unemployed and the peasants".[84]

Cuba's labour regulations ultimately caused economic stagnation. Hugh Thomas asserts that "militant unions succeded in maintaining the position of unionized workers and, consequently, made it difficult for capital to improve efficiency."[85] Between 1933 and 1958, Cuba increased economic regulation enormously.[71] The regulation led to declining investment.[71] The World Bank also complained that the Batista administration raised the tax burden without assessing its impact. Unemployment was high; many university graduates could not find jobs.[71] After its earlier meteroic rise, the Cuban gross domestic product grew at only 1% annually on average between 1950 and 1958.[77]

The US recognized the Castro government on 7 January, only six days after Batista fled Cuba. President Eisenhower sent a new ambassador, Philip Bonsal, to replace Earl Smith, who had been close to Batista. The Eisenhower administration, in agreement with the US media and the Congress (Republicans and Democrats alike), did this with the assumption that “Cuba must remain in the US sphere of influence”. If Castro accepted these parameters, he would be allowed to stay in power. Otherwise he would be overthrown.[87]Among the opponents of Batista there were many who wanted to accommodate the US. However, Castro belonged to a faction who, to the astonishment of Eisenhower and many North Americans, was repulsed by US domination and paternalism. Castro did not forgive the US supply of arms to Batista during the revolution. On 5 June 1958, he wrote: “The Americans are going to pay dearly for what they are doing. When the war is over, I’ll start a much longer and bigger war of my own: the war I’m going to fight against them. That will be my true destiny.”[88] (The US had stopped supplies to Batista in March 1958, but left its Military Advisory Group in Cuba[89]). Thus, Castro had no intention to bow to the US. “Even though he did not have a clear blueprint of the Cuba he wanted to create, Castro dreamed of a sweeping revolution that would uproot his country’s oppressive socioeconomic structure and of a Cuba that would be free of the United States”.[90]

By the end of 1960, all opposition newspaper had been closed down and all radio and television stations were in state control.[80]:189 Teachers and professors were purged.[80]:189 The Communist Party strengthened its one-party rule, with Castro as the supreme leader.[80]:189 Moderates were arrested.[80]:189 Fidel's brother Raul Castro became the commander of the army.[80]:189 In September 1960, the neighborhood watch networks known as committees for the defense of the revolution (CDR) were created.[80]:189

Unknown Speaker: "…in favor 76, opposed 35, abstention 17. The Resolution adopted. The Government of People's Republic of China will be notified accordingly."

Announcer: With that vote, Communist China was admitted into the UN and Nationalist China expelled. There was cheers, smiles, laughter and applause, but none showed their pleasure more than the young Chief Delegate from Tanzania, who performed an African victory jig in the front row.

For the United States, the expulsion of Nationalist China was considered a defeat in the international arena. It was a defeat many didn't like, Senator Barry Goldwater for one.

Senator Barry Goldwater: "I suggested on the floor of the Senate today that we stop all funds for the United Nations. Now, what that'll do to the United Nations, I don't know. I have a hunch it would cause them to fold up, which would make me very happy at this particular point. I think if this happens, they can well move their headquarters to Peking or Moscow and get 'em out of this country."

阿尔及利亚民主人民共和国

缅甸联邦

锡兰（今斯里兰卡）

古巴共和国

几内亚共和国

赤道几内亚共和国

伊拉克共和国

马里共和国

毛里塔尼亚伊斯兰共和国

尼泊尔王国

巴基斯坦伊斯兰共和国

也门民主人民共和国

刚果人民共和国

罗马尼亚社会主义共和国

塞拉勒窝内共和国

索马里民主共和国

苏丹民主共和国

阿拉伯叙利亚共和国

坦桑尼亚联合共和国

阿拉伯也门共和国

南斯拉夫社会主义联邦共和国

赞比亚共和国

奥地利共和国

比利时王国

不丹王国

博茨瓦纳共和国

保加利亚人民共和国

布隆迪共和国

白俄罗斯苏维埃社会主义共和国

喀麦隆联邦共和国

加拿大

智利共和国

捷克斯洛伐克社会主义共和国

丹麦王国

厄瓜多尔共和国

阿拉伯埃及共和国

埃塞俄比亚帝国

芬兰共和国

法兰西共和国

加纳共和国

圭亚那合作共和国

匈牙利人民共和国

冰岛共和国

印度共和国

伊朗

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以色列国

意大利共和国

肯尼亚共和国

科威特国

老挝王国

阿拉伯利比亚共和国

马来西亚联邦

墨西哥合众国

蒙古人民共和国

摩洛哥王国

荷兰王国

尼日利亚联邦共和国

挪威王国

秘鲁共和国

波兰人民共和国

葡萄牙共和国

卢旺达共和国

塞内加尔共和国

新加坡共和国

瑞典王国

多哥共和国

特立尼达和多巴哥

突尼斯共和国

土耳其共和国

乌干达共和国

乌克兰苏维埃社会主义共和国

苏联社会主义共和国联盟

大不列颠及北爱尔兰联合王国