主题：【原创】经济学的客观预测与社会的主观预期 -- MRandson
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感觉他专门打脸凯恩斯……
Any person who understand global finance should be pessimistic, because the current system is Windows XP1--with too many fatal bugs. Those bugs make the system internally vulnerable and unstable. What we saw between 1971-2008 are all temporary fixes and the total system collapse will come at a future date.
Any nation whose currency is used as global reserve currency will suffer from disguised curse--industry hollow out, conflict between financial and industry policies and final collapse.
Britain collapsed fast due to two world wars, the American empire is slowly eaten away by this dilemma. Several Fed Reserve board members complain about the constraint on domestic policy due to the USD reserve currency status. All top smart people know it is a time bomb.
As Alan Greenspan said: enjoy it as long as it lasts.
In the movie Matrix, one guy asked Oracle: how long will peace last. Oracle said: as long as it can last (=as long as the current Windows XP can last...)
所谓的繁荣，所谓的发展，说到底，都是某种因素在某个时段发挥主要影响造成的，未来必定会为此付出对价，差别在于，有的个体只享受成果，有的个体，仅支付对价。有生有死，有成有坏。
基于同样的假设，它们只是研究的对象不同。
微观研究个人和企业行为；宏观研究国家级别的储蓄，消费，进出口...。
现在研究宏观问题，最好使用微观数据，否则会有composition bias.
在当前西方的大学经济学课程里，博弈论占有多重要的位置？我也浏览过曼昆的东西，还没有看到有多少博弈论的东西。再说了，博弈论与数理统计一样，本来都是数学分支，经济学家把它们应用于经济领域而已，如果理论基础本身有问题，再多的数学工具也没有用。反而有误导作用。
你能否具体谈谈博弈论对预测这次经济危机、分析危机进展和提供应对措施起到了什么作用？