主题：【原创】经济学的客观预测与社会的主观预期 -- MRandson

Any person who understand global finance should be pessimistic, because the current system is Windows XP1--with too many fatal bugs. Those bugs make the system internally vulnerable and unstable. What we saw between 1971-2008 are all temporary fixes and the total system collapse will come at a future date.

Any nation whose currency is used as global reserve currency will suffer from disguised curse--industry hollow out, conflict between financial and industry policies and final collapse.

Britain collapsed fast due to two world wars, the American empire is slowly eaten away by this dilemma. Several Fed Reserve board members complain about the constraint on domestic policy due to the USD reserve currency status. All top smart people know it is a time bomb.

As Alan Greenspan said: enjoy it as long as it lasts.

In the movie Matrix, one guy asked Oracle: how long will peace last. Oracle said: as long as it can last (=as long as the current Windows XP can last...)