主题：【原创】经济学的客观预测与社会的主观预期 -- MRandson

The list of professors who warned against the real estate bubble is quite long. People who did not stay in States or did not read the English professional media of course are totally clueless. EIU first warned about the GLOBAL (American bubble is smaller than those in UK and Eastern Europe and China) housing bubble in March 2006.

Treasury Secretary Paulson warned Bush Jr. about the risk of credit derivatives when they first met in 2006 (exposed in media in 2008); Tim Geithner, the then-Fed-NY president and current treasury secretary, wanted to control the explosive growth of over the counter derivative market in 2004 and was pushed aside by more powerful tycoons.

Wall Street knew the risk, but they were blinded by their greed. Regulators knew the problems, but there were no enough political will/consensus to change it. Only crisis can move America.

Chinese elites way underestimated the strength/info advantage/smartness of their American counterparties.

While, Europeans are the same-- I remember in August 2008, German/French finance ministers still celebrated the forthcoming collapse of the American dollar empire and strong growth in Euroland, the collapse of Lehman ended that party abruptly and almost crushed the whole Euro-dollar market (NOT exchange market, it is the overseas dollar market in Europe) and then the European financial system.

The pretty and smart French finance minister, Christine Lagarde, is right: Lehman collapse is totally unnecessary or possibly a conspiracy. While, it is necessary because it is the best way to bring Europe and Asia together into recession and expose the sovereign fiscal problems of Euroland.

Now let's wait and see who has the last breath, Dollarland or Euroland. Asians should step aside and wait to prey on the weaker loser. Actually, by holding majority of reserves in dollar, Asians do pick side alread in this life-and-death fight.

China and Japan have stronger financial system now to withstand financial hit, because the former does not allow free capital flow and the latter learned a hard lesson in the last 20 years.