主题：【开赌了，开赌了】2004美国驴象肉搏赛最近赛情分析 -- 西风陶陶

Bush, Kerry Tied in Nine Battleground States, Zogby Poll Shows

Oct. 28 (Bloomberg) -- President George W. Bush and John Kerry, the four-term Massachusetts senator, are tied in nine of 10 states that both campaigns consider battlegrounds, daily polls by Reuters/Zogby show.

Polls in Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio show a statistical tie. Together, the states have 68 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency.

In Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico and Wisconsin -- which together have 58 electoral votes -- results also are within the margin of error, polls by Reuters/Zogby show. In Nevada, which has 5 electoral votes, Bush leads Kerry by 7 percentage points, Zogby found.

Zogby interviewed about 600 likely voters in each state Oct. 24-27. Each poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points. To identify a likely a voter, Zogby pollsters ask a series of questions about the respondent's voting history, spokeswoman Shawna Walcott said.

The electoral tally, not the nationwide popular vote, determines who wins the Nov. 2 election. The electoral votes are apportioned among states based on congressional representation.

A review of state polls shows Bush ahead in 21 states, including Texas and Arkansas, with 174 electoral votes. Kerry leads in 13 states, including New York and Maine, with 188 electoral votes. In 16 states that have 176 electoral votes, results of the most recent polls are within the margin of error.

State Results

Zogby's daily poll of the ten ``battleground'' states showed these results:

In Florida, Bush is backed by 48 percent and Kerry by 46 percent. In Pennsylvania, Kerry drew 49 percent to Bush's 46 percent. In Ohio, which no Republican has lost and still won the presidency, Kerry has 46 percent support to Bush's 45 percent.

In Colorado, which voted for the Republican candidate in eight of the last 10 presidential elections, Kerry has 50 percent support to Bush's 46 percent. In Iowa, the two candidates are tied at 45 percent each.

In Michigan, Bush and Kerry each have 47 percent. Kerry led in Michigan by 52 percent to 42 percent in Zogby's Oct. 21-24 poll. In Minnesota, Kerry drew 47 percent to Bush's 44 percent.

In New Mexico, Bush drew 47 percent to Kerry's 44 percent. In Wisconsin, Kerry is backed by 50 percent and Bush by 46 percent. Bush led Kerry in Wisconsin by 48 percent to 45 percent in the Oct. 21-24 poll.

Nevada is the only state among the 10 tracked daily by Reuters/Zogby where one candidate -- Bush -- has a statistically significant lead. Bush is backed by 51 percent to Kerry's 44 percent in the state, which has voted for the Republican in 7 of the last 10 presidential elections.

A tracking poll such as that by Reuters/Zogby is done daily and the results are a rolling average of three or four days' worth of results. A portion of the total sample is interviewed each day. The earliest results are dropped when a new day is added.

Zogby International is based in Utica, New York. Reuters Group Plc, the world's largest publicly traded provider of financial information, is based in London.

To contact the reporter on this story: Michael Forsythe in

Washington [email protected]

To contact the editor responsible for this story:

Glenn Hall in Washington at [email protected].

Last Updated: October 28, 2004 09:56 EDT

• 你的记性……

我猜Kerry赢，要是我赢了，你送我10朵花，要是我输了，我送你10朵花，怎么样？

铁大人，没听见吧！

要是他输了，您在河边等着，看见俺也不用捞了，把花往河里扔就好。

日子还长着呢！

我们这里的忠诚的民主党员们，已经为11月3号请好假了，说要是输了，准备在家哭一天。

有没有人需要加州共和党选票的，让咱们在河中大力开展Vote Swapping。

哭

然后你还能得花，美的你，

我一下就识破了，同志们，千万不能上他的当呀！

大家一起笑就痛快笑，哭就痛快哭，不好么？

倒不是因为个人更不喜欢小布什的新保守主义，而是战略分析。自古这种选战，除非有稳定的优势，比如领先20%，或者竞争性不强（谁上台政策都差不多），否则多半最后翻盘。围棋也是如此，水平相近的对手输棋的大多是中午封盘的时候占优势的那一方。这里面有对选民和台上选举人微妙的心理影响。现在报道表面上胶着，而仔细研究，有小布什微微占优的倾向，据此，我的判断选民在最后将帮助克里翻盘。

如果弄一个古罗马选执政官的统计，大概就很容易说明问题。

哭便一起哭，不过多半是，笑一起笑！

今天最新的民调，布什在佛罗里达已经和克里拉开距离,估计可以拿下. 在宾州和克里相持不下,在俄亥俄却已经落后克里好几个百分点.历史上还没有总统候选人输掉俄亥俄却赢得大选的.

http://www.tradesports.com/

check PRESIDENT.GWBUSH2004，bush new low 52% since August, and almost lost Ohio.

有兴趣的也可以赌一把。