主题：【开赌了，开赌了】2004美国驴象肉搏赛最近赛情分析 -- 西风陶陶

Bush, Kerry Tied in Nine Battleground States, Zogby Poll Shows

Oct. 28 (Bloomberg) -- President George W. Bush and John Kerry, the four-term Massachusetts senator, are tied in nine of 10 states that both campaigns consider battlegrounds, daily polls by Reuters/Zogby show.

Polls in Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio show a statistical tie. Together, the states have 68 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency.

In Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico and Wisconsin -- which together have 58 electoral votes -- results also are within the margin of error, polls by Reuters/Zogby show. In Nevada, which has 5 electoral votes, Bush leads Kerry by 7 percentage points, Zogby found.

Zogby interviewed about 600 likely voters in each state Oct. 24-27. Each poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points. To identify a likely a voter, Zogby pollsters ask a series of questions about the respondent's voting history, spokeswoman Shawna Walcott said.

The electoral tally, not the nationwide popular vote, determines who wins the Nov. 2 election. The electoral votes are apportioned among states based on congressional representation.

A review of state polls shows Bush ahead in 21 states, including Texas and Arkansas, with 174 electoral votes. Kerry leads in 13 states, including New York and Maine, with 188 electoral votes. In 16 states that have 176 electoral votes, results of the most recent polls are within the margin of error.

State Results

Zogby's daily poll of the ten ``battleground'' states showed these results:

In Florida, Bush is backed by 48 percent and Kerry by 46 percent. In Pennsylvania, Kerry drew 49 percent to Bush's 46 percent. In Ohio, which no Republican has lost and still won the presidency, Kerry has 46 percent support to Bush's 45 percent.

In Colorado, which voted for the Republican candidate in eight of the last 10 presidential elections, Kerry has 50 percent support to Bush's 46 percent. In Iowa, the two candidates are tied at 45 percent each.

In Michigan, Bush and Kerry each have 47 percent. Kerry led in Michigan by 52 percent to 42 percent in Zogby's Oct. 21-24 poll. In Minnesota, Kerry drew 47 percent to Bush's 44 percent.

In New Mexico, Bush drew 47 percent to Kerry's 44 percent. In Wisconsin, Kerry is backed by 50 percent and Bush by 46 percent. Bush led Kerry in Wisconsin by 48 percent to 45 percent in the Oct. 21-24 poll.

Nevada is the only state among the 10 tracked daily by Reuters/Zogby where one candidate -- Bush -- has a statistically significant lead. Bush is backed by 51 percent to Kerry's 44 percent in the state, which has voted for the Republican in 7 of the last 10 presidential elections.

A tracking poll such as that by Reuters/Zogby is done daily and the results are a rolling average of three or four days' worth of results. A portion of the total sample is interviewed each day. The earliest results are dropped when a new day is added.

Zogby International is based in Utica, New York. Reuters Group Plc, the world's largest publicly traded provider of financial information, is based in London.

To contact the reporter on this story: Michael Forsythe in

Washington [email protected]

To contact the editor responsible for this story:

Glenn Hall in Washington at [email protected].

Last Updated: October 28, 2004 09:56 EDT

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