主题:【原创】从巴基斯坦的总统弹劾看中巴友谊的前景! -- 观望者
中国网络上的言论,能多大程度的反映出真正的民意,还是个问题。
不明白为何不实施某种程度的实名制度?就算仅仅是显示IP也好。至少互联网上的舆论,不至于那样轻易被人左右。
你太小看我们国家的WJ设备了
现在连地方小镇上的WJ都可以查到你是在哪发帖的,如果管理严格点,网吧里的身份证办理时数据就到了WJ那里
你这一段跟我前边说的有什么关系。
好象在指责我拍美国马屁?
另外请教两个概念:什么是中国的穆斯林问题和维吾尔问题?什么时候有了这样的提法?
另外我也不清楚你从我哪一段文字里看出来,说中国要跟在美国后面反恐。
美国推翻塔利班这样的政权可谓相当容易,因为目标明确。但要想歼灭化整为零成为游击队的塔武装力量,则比伊拉克还要麻烦些。你知道那里的地形,美国有能力搞定此事,但恐怕要付出不少美军士兵的性命,因为阿富汗的山区里根本就没什么可炸的东西,必须出动山地部队进行搜剿。
不过话说回来,当时还没有伊拉克战争的教训,而攻打塔利班除了利益外,又象是一场“为美国人民复仇”的表演,没有来自国内的政治压力。因此我也觉得美国并未打算一次就把塔利班赶尽杀绝。
地面围剿的主要任务是交给巴基斯坦的,塔利班与巴基斯坦军队以前曾经是并肩作战的关系,巴基斯坦的情报部门还为塔利班培训了不少人(主要用在克什米尔争夺上,巴基斯坦的目的是团结一切可团结的对象来对付印度)。这会儿为了大义就要灭亲,恐怕至少在下级军官那里会打折扣。
不跳出来怎么知道是否是良民呢?
穆沙拉夫是通过不流血政变上台(跟前人都差不多),但在巴国内的声誉还是相当高的。
任何一个巴基斯坦政治家想要稳定掌权,就必须解决好两大问题:一是国内(世俗化管理与宗教势力的矛盾),二是外交(如何借力平衡印度)。
迄今为止,没有一个人能做好。
在国内问题上打击恐怖主义是世俗化管理的需要,但塔利班与巴国内强大的宗教势力有无法割断的联系。你一打,就可能被说成是尾随穆斯林的敌人美国来打穆斯林。巴基斯坦的内困尤甚于外交,这些年虽然经济有发展,可是长期存在的国内矛盾不但没有得到调和,反而在国力上远远被印度抛在后面了。
这种局面换谁也不好处理,但它却可以成为让一个人下台的最好理由。
贝布托和谢里夫能结束流放卷土重来(穆沙拉夫充许),这里面首先就有穆沙拉夫面临越来越强的“民主”压力的结果,不然行伍出身的这位总统是不会那么轻易妥协的。谢里夫后来反客为主,是利用“法理”来对穆沙拉夫步步进逼。
穆沙拉夫是通过选举失势的。巴基斯坦的选举令人费解,以下为我跟巴基斯坦网友的一段对话:
先是有巴基斯坦网友在8月11号发了一个贴子祝Mushy生日快乐。
我问:
I'm just confused, most of you seem to support him but the PML(Q) is sharply losing votes and took a record minor placing in the elections. what a contrast by the president's clean sweep only few months ago!
and what happened to the chief of the general staff, is it a real neutral posture?
----------------------------------------
回复:
Problem started with biased propaganda of media, certainly foreign money was involved. Classic example can be Egypt where Mr. Mubarik is least popular fellow but he wins elections just becuase foreign powers provide the finance for engineered elections and buying votes of poor people.
P.Musharraf is not member of PML-Q, neither he took part in any elections so practically he did not lost any thing.
The result of elections shows that PML-Q had support in every nook and corner of Pakistan. They lost almost every seat with tight margins from nationalist parties. In 2007 elections nationalists parties won majority seats from their respective provinces. PPP from Sindh, PML-N from punjab, and ANP from Frontier province, where as PML-Q won Baluchistan and plus scattered seats from all over Pakistan. What actually selfish political leaders are doing is dividing the vote bank into regions. Sindh is the province where election is nothing more than joke because land lord gets all the vote and Sindhi farmers are like slaves of those land lords and cannot even travel out of their village without permission, how can they vote for other than land lord.
All our ruling politicians are bunch of thiefs and how can we expect fairness from those thugs. there are many ways to controll the vote bank. politicians change their speech and promises according to the audiance and mostly people are not familiar with international conspiracies and geo-political matters hence they only understand and trust simple matters and expect better. Politicians confuse them when they can't convince them.
We need to change our system from parlimentry form of governance to Presidential system and than it will be Musharraf every time elections may held.
这是巴国Inter-Services Intelligence办的一个网站。