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主题：【原创】美国：电脑程序员职业滨临灭绝 -- 山而王
家园 In Sillicon Valley 90%+ are hired by small employers.
It might be different from other areas.
Surely out-sourcing happens every day, however a lot new companies are started up every day as well.And some of them turn to be next INTEL, CISCO, maybe recent successful one like GOOG and Youtube.
People here actually do give up employment in large established companies to join small startups.
IMHO, here is the right place that has the whole environment. All these facts of venture capital, technologies, talented engineers and market that is willing to accept new technologies, are come together and ready here. You can outsourcing jobs, but you can't outsourcing the whole environment.
Just recently, the job market in bay area becomes almost as hot as the boom time.
家园 风险基金是双刃剑 它是以追逐高利润为唯一目的。电讯和网络泡沫和风险基金的推波助澜密不可分。现在，它们又把目光投向搜索引擎。(摇头，叹息)它们成群结队，一哄而上。东西时髦了不管好不好都给钱，东西过时了，即使很好的产品也别想要到一分钱。
还听说过至少两个例子，风险基金进来后瞎指挥，把公司搞垮了。
印度现在也有风险基金，其疯狂程度一点不比美国逊色。一旦在印度或者其它国家搞IT START UP的条件成熟，硅谷就不会那么耀眼了。
至于投资环境嘛，整体来说美国最好。但是不排除在国家或者地区特别政策下，印度和中国出现光谷、搜索谷。
那时，根据风险基金的本性，只要投资条件许可，它会毫不犹豫冲出美国。
其实，资本在全球追逐利润，已经越来越明显了。到那时，硅谷的优势何在？
家园 agree! 相信自己这辈子吃饭没大问题了……
家园 没有这么乐观 全球化只好了资本家。消费者间接地得些便宜，不过如果没了工作，Wal-Mart东西再便宜也消费不起。
也许美国以后只有富翁和必须当面提供服务的服务业人员。医生，护士，跑堂，清洁工。。。不多的选择。制造业工人已经完蛋了，职业人士就是下一拨，做得好的除外。适者生存。
家园 这个恐怕没有那么快 一旦外包流程成熟了，其质量和稳定性达到要求了，大规模裁员在所难免。我估计，10年内的事这句话其实隐含着至少三个前提
（1）外包流程在十年之内能够成熟
（2）成熟的外包流程价格稳定，十年前是20万比5万十年后还能保持这个比例
（3）成熟的外包流程价格低廉，甚至中小企业都能用得起
其实这三个前提，哪个都不是那么板上钉钉
（一）外包流程十年内能成熟么？玄。或许瑞所在的公司总是和高素质的印度软件公司打交道。区区所在的这两家企业，基本上就是和Infosys打交道 -- infosys在印度软件外包行业排名多少不清楚，反正其水平之烂，管理之滥，在我们这里是有目共睹，有口皆骂的... IT有什么大项目，哪个PM要是胆敢说：“这个项目全部让infosys来做吧”，本公司的CTO肯定要送他到医生那里检查一下精神状态... 五年前我就和Infosys打交道，五年后还是没看到什么长进...
（二）印度IT的工资也涨得很快。我的几个印度同事，纷纷回国就职，当然是在软件外包行业，都是中层管理，工资至少是这边的7、80%，这还是至少三年前 -- 可能俺们这种公司工资没有大纽约那么高，普通程序员也能拿20万
，可问题是美国IT工作有百分之几在纽约？（三）米国这边还有大量的中小企业，他们也有IT需求，可都是顶多几十万一百万的项目 -- 他们当然也希望能减少IT支出，可问题是在程序员工资上省下的那点儿钱，又全部给了外包，什么区别... 当然外包可以吹嘘“我们服务好”，可是这种中小企业，往往根本不在乎几百年后软件运行的稳定性，他们只要眼下能拿出能用的东西就行。
家园 电子零部件产业向中国转移用了多长时间？ 少于10年。制造业向中国转移用了多长时间？少于10年。软件外包从起步到现在成为行业规范用了多少时间？少于10年。
软件，给台$1000的电脑，接上电源，接个电话线，只要有人，即使露天也能干的活，堪称门槛很低，只要有人，脑子里有货，连偷技术都省了。
我看，还用不了10年。
家园 Cutting-edge work is safe In many areas only the US has the critical mass of skills
and expertise. It will take at least a generation for other
countries to catch up. And cutting-edge technical work usually
involves frequent trial-and-error rounds that are hostile to
outsourcing: you can improve communication, but you can't
beat time zones. So even if you are not a genius, you may be
safe working for geniuses. Conclusion: startup is beautiful.
As for run-of-the-mill programming jobs, I agree with the OP
that they will either go away or suffer pay cuts. Anyone
remember that back in 1995, a web developer could earn 6-figure?
家园 I am not that optimistic As with today's open source and shareware, there is no advantage between developers residing in US vs those in Banglore.
Top gun devs never need to worry. But most of the devs in US, I am afraid, they have no technical advantage comparing to those in India and China.
95% of the work can be transfered over sea with the expection of same quality and much lower cost.
I am sad to say that it is time for one to review his/her career path and think where one wants to be in 10 years.
I might be overly concerned and I really hope I am. I know people do not like to hear these words.
But think, in 10 years, those who rides on the wave of internet and find a decent job in US, will find themselves in 40's.
Who need a 40 year old, middle level developer, asking for above 100K US $?
家园 This makes a lot of sense... Hehe, my flower for you!
Oops, we both get a TongBao!
家园 不出意外的话 本嘀咕还能再活十年，到时看哈
家园 总有些留下来的