主题：软弱无力的希望 -- 牛铃

似乎很难说得通啊。虽然大家都知道日本的算盘不是自卫那么简单

真出了事，算账要找狗的主人。

Seek Nuclear Weapons

KYO, Oct. 18 — The government of Japan assured Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice today that it has no intention of pursuing a nuclear weapons program, despite North Korea's detonation of a nuclear device.

"The government of Japan has no position at all to consider going nuclear," said Taro Aso, Japan's foreign minister. "There is no need to arm ourselves with nuclear weapons, either."

His statement came during a joint news conference in which Ms. Rice vowed that the full range of American military commitments to Japan remained undiminished.

"The United States has the will and the capability to meet the full range — and I underscore full range — of its deterrent and security commitments to Japan," Ms. Rice said.

North Korea's nuclear test set off political tremors throughout the region and raised fears that several of the advanced economic and technological powers might seek their own nuclear deterrent, setting off a new Asian arms race.

Japan is certainly a nation with the nuclear know-how to move rapidly, if it chose, toward creating a nuclear arsenal.

Hawks in the Japanese political establishment have said the nation should engage in a debate over going nuclear, but have stopped short of calling for Japan to embark on a nuclear program. But given the legacy of World War II and constitutional restrictions that limit Japan's military to a defense force, even the idea of a debate over a nuclear arsenal is a significant change.

Earlier today, in fact, Mr. Aso told a committee in Parliament that it was "important'' to discuss whether Japan should acquire nuclear arms, while stressing that it had no immediate plans to do so. Mr. Aso criticized the long-held taboo in Japan, the only country to have suffered from atomic bombs, against considering acquiring nuclear arms even "at a time when a country next to us comes to have them.''

"We can't consider, we can't talk, we can't do anything and we can't exchange opinions — that's one way of thinking," Mr. Aso said. "I believe it is important to have various discussions on it as another way of thinking.''

"The reality is that it is only Japan that has not discussed possessing nuclear weapons, and all other countries have been discussing it," he added.

Mr. Aso became the second high-ranking politician close to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to voice the need for a frank discussion on nuclear arms. On Sunday, Shoichi Nakagawa, the policy chief and one of the top four officials of the governing Liberal Democratic Party, made similar remarks on a television program.

The remarks, albeit followed by quick denials of any intention of acquiring nuclear arms, represent the first time that such prominent politicians have spoken so publicly about the need to open the debate over the issue. They are likely to fuel the fear in Asia of a remilitarized Japan, as well as worries among policy-makers in the United States that the North's nuclear test will trigger a nuclear arms race in this region.

In recent years, under former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, Japan shed several other longtime taboos by deploying troops to Iraq and participating in the U.S.-led missile defense shield.

Upon becoming prime minister last month, Mr. Abe said that his priorities would be to revise the U.S.-imposed pacifist Constitution and eliminate a longtime ban on engaging in collective self-defense.

Within the terms Secretary Rice chose in offering assurance to Japan — that American military power remains committed to treaty obligations to defend Japan and deter other nations from attacking — was the strong signal that Japan has no need to build its own nuclear arsenal.

There was also a message meant for the North Korean leadership to hear, a repetition of Mr. Bush's signals last week that the American military is poised to respond to any attack on its ally.

Senior advisers to the secretary of state have said that while Japan is a stable democracy and a trusted ally, any sign encouraging Japan to go nuclear would have dangerous implications. State Department officials express concerns that no nation could manage the regional turmoil if numerous Asian states, many with simmering historic hostilities, joined the nuclear club.

In particular, officials fear that any Japanese declaration of a decision to start a nuclear weapons program would prompt another American ally in the region, South Korea, to do the same, and might inspire Taiwan to follow — all actions that would greatly anger China.

Secretary Rice travels on this week to Seoul, South Korea, Beijing and Moscow in an effort to rally North Korea's neighbors to add muscle to enforcing a Security Council resolution on sanctions that some regional powers already have interpreted to suit their national interests.

In many ways, her first stop, here in Tokyo, is the easiest, as Japan and the United States have the most unified public view on efforts to limit, and eventually end, North Korea's nuclear program.

中国管不了朝鲜，更管不了日本。

日本能不能管得住，要看美国。