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主题:马航的变态机师 -- 陈经

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    • 家园 这是排除阴谋论的一个能说得过去的推断

      但是根据事发后相关各方的异常表现,阴谋论这个观点就不能排除了。特别是现在中国的官方媒体开始有意无意地开始对某超在印度洋的基地指名道姓了。

    • 家园 如果有种假设成立,可能就不会奇怪了

      也许马六甲周边国家与美国有秘密协定。尤其马来西亚,新加坡。在监控马六甲方面可能与美国有秘密协议或合作。马、美可能有类似合作监控马六甲航道的秘密合作或协定。

      这应该就是为什么到目前为止,马方含含糊糊的表示军方仍有信息没有披露的原因。其多次提到涉及国家安全等因素。

      航班出事以后,因为马来在美国帮助下(或双方协作)获得的空情监控信息一旦发布,马、美在马六甲军事合作可能就将曝光,这种后果一定会引起周边国家的巨大不满与区域局势的剧烈变化。照我看只有这种最严重的后果才有可能阻止马方公布掌握的失踪航班的全部信息。毕竟200多人命后果也是很严重的。

      • 家园 马来西亚和美国应该都有隐瞒

        美国手里实际是有大量情报的,所以西方媒体总能挖到料。飞机是波音的,发动机是罗-罗的,飞行区域在美军重点监控的区域附近,马来西亚、泰国都是遍布美国情报人员的地方。各方面的数据汇总之后,美国人知道的肯定不少。刚有新闻报道,美国人又说飞机最初变换航线是通过计算机控制的,如果此新闻非捏造,这都能看出来,可见美国人所掌握的数据之详细,参考数据库之庞大。

        反过来,中国在搜索过程中依赖马来披露信息的引导,反映了中国在南海的情报收集能力还非常非常弱。不过,新闻里说,中国自称调动了21颗卫星辅助搜寻,暴露了中国目前的卫星侦察能力。

        另一个比较值得关注的消息是,澳大利亚主动站出来协调南印度洋的搜索。作为美国再南太平洋的盟友,澳大利亚借此机会将触手深入南印度洋,不知印度作何感想。

        • 家园 另外暴露了TG的卫星监控能力

          印度洋上20米长的漂浮物都能搜到,那么对海洋上行走的军舰编队基本上就可以实现连续观察了。相应地导引导弹群对预定地域进行面杀伤也是很可行的事儿。看来航母战斗群是真的过时啦。

        • 家园 美国媒体这次很克制

          美国媒体这次很克制,每次放一点儿,滴眼药水的节奏。

    • 家园 转贴一个,美国海军“俘获”马来西亚航班,俄罗斯“很困惑”

      Russia “Puzzled” Over Malaysia Airlines “Capture” By US Navy

        美国海军“俘获”马来西亚航班,俄罗斯“很困惑”

        Posted by EU Times on Mar 14th, 2014

        载于欧盟时报,2014.3.14

        A new report circulating in the Kremlin today prepared by the Main Intelligence Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces (GRU) states that Aerospace Defence Forces (VKO) experts remain “puzzled” as to why the United States Navy “captured and then diverted” a Malaysia Airlines civilian aircraft from its intended flight-path to their vast and highly-secretive Indian Ocean base located on the Diego Garcia atoll.

        今日在克里姆林宫流传一份新报告,该报告由武装力量总参谋部(GRU)的情报部门完成。报告说,防空军(VKO)专家仍然“困惑”于为什么美国海军“俘获并转移”一架马来西亚民航航班,从其原定路线到美海军位于印度洋上迭戈加西亚岛的巨大保密基地。

        According to this report, Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 (also marketed as China Southern Airlines flight 748 through a codeshare) was a scheduled passenger flight from Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, to Beijing, China, when on 8 March this Boeing 777-200ER aircraft “disappeared” in flight with 227 passengers on board from 15 countries, most of whom were Chinese, and 12 crew members.

        按这份报告,马来西亚航班370(与中国南航748代码共享)为马来西亚吉隆坡至中国北京的常规客机,在3月8日该波音777-200ER飞机在飞行中“消失”,机上有来自15个国家的227名乘客(多数来自中国),以及12名机组人员。

        Interesting to note, this report says, was that Flight 370 was already under GRU “surveillance” after it received a “highly suspicious” cargo load that had been traced to the Indian Ocean nation Republic of Seychelles, and where it had previously been aboard the US-flagged container ship MV Maersk Alabama.

        值得一提的是,该报告说,航班370早已处于GRU“监控”之下。此前它上面装了“高度可疑的货物”,该货物来自印度洋国家塞舌尔,挂美国旗的集装箱船MV Maersk Alabama号曾停泊于此。

        What first aroused GRU suspicions regarding the MV Maersk Alabama, this report continues, was that within 24-hours of off-loading this “highly suspicious” cargo load bound for Malaysia Airlines Flight 370, the two highly-trained US Navy Seals assigned to protect it, Mark Daniel Kennedy, 43, and Jeffrey Keith Reynolds, 44, were found dead under “suspicious circumstances.”

        报告说,MV Maersk Alabama号引起GRU怀疑,是因为(后来上马航370的)“高度可疑”货物从船上卸载后24小时内,受命保护该货物得两名高度训练过的美国海军海豹队员(43岁的Mark Daniel Kennedy和44岁的Jeffrey Keith Reynolds)死于“可疑的环境”。

        Both Kennedy and Reynolds, this report says, were employed by the Virginia Beach, Virginia-based maritime security firm The Trident Group which was founded by US Navy Special Operations Personnel (SEAL’s) and Senior US Naval Surface Warfare Officers and has long been known by the GRU to protect vital transfers of both atomic and biological materials throughout the world.

        报告说,这两个人受雇于位于佛吉尼亚的海上安全企业三叉戟集团Virginia分部,该集团由美国海军特种部队(海豹)人事部门和高级军官建立,GRU早已知道他们负责保护世界范围内的关键核、生化材料传递。

        Upon GRU “assests” confirming that this “highly suspicious” cargo was aboard Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 on 8 March, this report notes, Moscow notified China’s Ministry of State Security (MSS) of their concerns and received “assurances” that “all measures” would be taken as to ascertain what was being kept so hidden when this aircraft entered into their airspace.

        GRU“断言”,此“高度可疑”货物在3月8日上了马航370,报告说,莫斯科就此提醒了中国国家安全部并收到“保证”说会采取“一切措施”以弄清楚这里面藏了什么,只要航班一进入中国领空。

        However, this report says, and as yet for still unknown reasons, the MSS was preparing to divert Flight 370 from its scheduled destination of Beijing to Haikou Meilan International Airport (HAK) located in Hainan Province (aka Hainan Island).

        然而,报告说,因未知原因,中国国安部准备转移370航班,从计划的北京路线到位于海南的海口美兰国际机场。

        Prior to entering the People Liberation Army (PLA) protected zones of the South China Sea known as the Spratly Islands, this report continues, Flight 370 “significantly deviated” from its flight course and was tracked by VKO satellites and radar flying into the Indian Ocean region and completing its nearly 3,447 kilometer (2,142 miles) flight to Diego Garcia.

        报告继续说,在进入解放军保护的南中国海区域(南沙群岛)之前,370航班“大幅偏离”其航线并(由航空军VKO卫星及雷达跟踪)飞入了印度洋区域,最终完成其3447公里飞行到达迭戈加西亚。

        Critical to note about Flight 370’s flight deviation, GRU experts in this report say, was that it occurred during the same time period that all of the Spratly Island mobile phone communications operated by China Mobile were being jammed.

        GRU专家说,关于370航班偏航,特别值得说明的是事件发生时整个南沙群岛的中国移动手机通讯信号都被屏蔽了。

        China Mobile, it should be noted, extended phone coverage in the Spratly Islands in 2011 so that PLA soldiers stationed on the islands, fishermen, and merchant vessels within the area would be able to use mobile services, and can also provide assistance during storms and sea rescues.

        中国移动在2011年扩充了南沙劝导的手机覆盖范围,以方便守岛的解放军战士,渔民,商船使用手机服务,也可在风暴和海事救援方面提供支持。

        As to how the US Navy was able to divert Flight 370 to its Diego Garcia base, this report says, appears to have been accomplished remotely as this Boeing 777-200ER aircraft is equipped with a fly-by-wire (FBW) system that replaces the conventional manual flight controls of an aircraft with an electronic interface allowing it to be controlled like any drone-type aircraft.

        关于美国海军何以能让370航班转飞到其迭戈加西亚基地,报告说,似乎是通过远程操纵该飞机的电传操控系统(FBW)以替代传统手工飞行控制,使用类似无人机的操控界面。

        However, this report notes, though this aircraft can be controlled remotely, the same cannot be said of its communication systems which can only be shut down manually; and in the case of Flight 370, its data reporting system was shut down at 1:07 a.m., followed by its transponder (which transmits location and altitude) which was shut down at 1:21 a.m.

        然而,报告说,虽然飞机可以远程控制,其通讯系统可能只能手工关闭;具体到370的情况,其数据报告系统于1:07被关闭,其位置报告系统于1:21被关闭。

        What remains “perplexing” about this incident, GRU analysts in this report say, are why the American mainstream media outlets have yet to demand from the Obama regime the radar plots and satellite images of the Indian Ocean and South China Sea regions as the US military covers this entire area from Diego Garcia like no other seas in the world due to its vital shipping and air lanes.

        GRU分析员说,这次事件中仍然“令人困惑”的是为何美国主流媒体还没有要求奥巴马政府提供印度洋和中国南海地区的雷达图及卫星图。美国军队从迭戈加西亚起覆盖这片广大区域远超世界其它海域,由于位于航空、航海要冲位置。

        Most sadly, this report concludes, the US is actually able to conceal the reason(s) for the “disappearance” of Flight 370 as they have already done so after the events of 11 September 2011 when the then Bush regime “disappeared” American Airlines Flight 77 and its 64 passengers and crew after falsely claiming it hit the Pentagon, but which was confirmed by the CNN News Service [see video HERE] not to have happened.

        报告总结,悲哀的是,美国实际上有能力隐藏370航班“消失”的原因。在2011年9.11事件后,当时的布什政府使美国航空77航班及其64名乘客及机组人员“消失”,声称它击中了五角大楼,但CNN后来确认攻击五角大楼这事没有发生。

        ------------------------------------------------------------

        Malaysia Airlines Mystery Deepens After Top Disease Experts Rushed To Indian Ocean

        Posted by EU Times on Mar 16th, 2014

        A grim report prepared by the Main Intelligence Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces (GRU) on Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 is stating today that within 24-hours of this aircrafts “diversion” to the highly secretive Indian Ocean US military base located on the Diego Garcia atoll, no less than four flights, within the past week, containing top American and Chinese disease scientists and experts have, likewise, been flown to there.

        According to this report, Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 (also marketed as China Southern Airlines flight 748 through a codeshare) was a scheduled passenger flight from Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, to Beijing, China, when on 8 March this Boeing 777-200ER aircraft “disappeared” in flight with 227 passengers on board from 15 countries, most of whom were Chinese, and 12 crew members.

        As we had previously noted in our report “Russia “Puzzled” Over Malaysia Airlines “Capture” By US Navy,” the GRU had previously notified China’s Ministry of State Security (MSS) of its suspicions regarding this flight due its containing a “highly suspicious” cargo that had been offloaded in the Republic of Seychelles from the US-flagged container ship MV Maersk Alabama.

        First arousing the GRU’s concerns regarding this “highly suspicious” cargo, this report continues, was that after its unloading from the MV Maersk Alabama on 17 February, its then transfer to Seychelles International Airport where it was loaded on an Emirates flight bound for Kuala Lumpur International Airport in Malaysia, after first stopping over in Dubai, the two highly trained US Navy SEALS who were guarding it were found dead.

        The two US Navy SEALS protecting this “highly suspicious” cargo, Mark Daniel Kennedy, 43, and Jeffrey Keith Reynolds, 44, were found dead under “suspicious circumstances” aboard the MV Maersk Alabama, this report says, further raising Russian intelligence suspicions as they were both employed by the Virginia Beach, Virginia-based maritime security firm The Trident Group which was founded by US Navy Special Operations Personnel (SEAL’s) and Senior US Naval Surface Warfare Officers and has long been known by the GRU to protect vital transfers of both atomic and biological materials throughout the world.

        Upon Flight 370’s departure from Malaysia on 8 March, this report continues, the GRU was notified by the MSS that they were going to divert it from its scheduled destination of Beijing to Haikou Meilan International Airport (HAK) located in Hainan Province (aka Hainan Island).

        Prior to this planes entering into People Liberation Army (PLA) protected zones of the South China Sea known as the Spratly Islands, however, this report continues, Flight 370 “significantly deviated” from its flight course and was tracked by VKO satellites and radar flying into the Indian Ocean region and completing its nearly 3,447 kilometer (2,142 miles) flight to Diego Garcia.

        In a confirmation of the GRU’s assertion that Flight 370 was, indeed, flown to Diego Garcia, this report says, satellite transmission data analyzed by US investigators showed that this planes most likely last-known position was in a zone about 1,609 kilometers (1,000 miles) west of Perth, Australia in the Indian Ocean..

        Most troubling to the GRU about Flight 370’s “diversion” to Diego Garcia, this report says, was that it was “nearly immediately” followed by some of the top disease scientists and experts from the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CCDCP) embarking to Diego Garcia on at least four flights.

        关于370航班偏航到迭戈加西亚,GRU报告说,最麻烦的是“几乎”立刻跟着来了至少四架飞机,机上是美国疾病控制与方中心和中国疾病控制预防中心的顶级专家。

        As to why both American and Chinese disease experts were taken to Diego Garcia where Flight 370 is now known to be, this report says, has as yet not been answered by either of these governments after repeated Foreign Ministry requests for “explanations and clarification.”

        至于为什么美国和中国疾病专家到迭戈加西亚(370航班所在),报告说,(俄)外交部要求“解释澄清”之后,相关政府至今还没有回答。

        What is to be known, this report says, is that as Malaysia has been forced to admit Flight 370 was, indeed, “diverted” from its flight path as the GRU had previously reported, and as at least 25 nations are now involved in searching for it, it remains a mystery as to what is actually occurring.

        现在知道的,是马来西亚被迫承认,370航班如GRU前面说的偏离了原定航线。至少25个国家卷入了搜索,至今实际发生的还是个谜。

        Also known, this report concludes, is that Diego Garcia as a designated ETOPS emergency landing site for flight planning purposes of commercial airliners transversing the Indian Ocean, and as one of 33 emergency landing sites worldwide for the NASA Space Shuttle, it is “inconceivable” that any type of aircraft, let alone Flight 370, can fly anywhere in the Southern Hemisphere without being tracked, monitored and recorded in totality.

        报告总结,还知道的是迭戈加西亚是为商业航班横跨大西洋时指定的ETOPS紧急着陆点,也是NASA航天飞机在世界上的33个紧急着陆点之一,“不可想象”任何航空器(别说370航班)可能在南半球飞行而没有完整的跟踪、监视、记录

    • 家园 这是要被转500次的节奏吗?
    • 家园 【求教】突尼斯等方向油够飞否?圆弧必圣诞岛哈萨克泰国么?

      【求教】突尼斯等方向油够飞否?圆弧必圣诞岛哈萨克泰国么?

    • 家园 圣诞岛

      据Che在超大论坛发言,从马总理发言推断,飞机可能降落在澳大利亚东北的圣诞岛,或者附近的科科斯岛。

    • 家园 飞行员一个人发神经的可能性不大

      飞机折返时采用了复杂的航线,目的只是最终一头扎到海里的话,用不着再继续飞6个小时。如果降落在陆地机场,一个飞行员也无法控制那么多乘客和空乘,早就跟外界有联系了。

      所以,飞机失踪这么多天,要么飞机已经坠海(非操纵者初衷),要么飞机被一个组织,而不是一个人控制。

      马来的空军很无厘头,竟能有友好的不明飞行物一说。都是不明飞行物了,怎么判断是友好的呢?合理的解释之一是,马来的领空经常被美军侦察机渗透,又不敢招惹美军,习惯成自然。所以马来军方才迟迟不证实发现过这么一个友好的不明飞行物。另一种解释是马来军人玩忽职守,又不想家丑外扬,所以期望出现奇迹,折返的不是那架飞机……结果奇迹没出现,纸包不住火了(罗-罗手里有飞机发动机的通讯数据),才公布。不管是哪一种情况,马来军队都是渣,马来在东南亚的地位算是彻底毁掉了。最后一种情况,马来人被迫推迟公开这个发现。所以消息被下面的人泄露(中下级军官不可能了解高层的秘密),高层官员又出来否认。而所谓要确认了再公布是不合逻辑的,尽快定位飞机的位置是关键,即便只是一个可能性,公开出来,大家一同分析,效率要高的多。如同现在,也没确认飞机是飞行员劫持的,为什么就公布出来这个怀疑呢?

      另一个疑点,飞机发动机的数据会直接发给罗-罗的服务器,罗-罗应该早就知道有没有这些数据,但是,也是在下面的人泄密之后,先是否认,最后才被迫证实。要么罗-罗认为仅仅把这个信息提供给马来方面,随他们处理,自己不再负有责任,要么罗-罗方面的高层也出于某种原因不能任意公布这些情况,要么是因为大公司内部的官僚,底下人知道有,但上层还没及时得到这个信息。

      最后,关于两条弧线。如果说飞机藏在泰国或者缅甸还有可能,再往北,中印之间的雷达都在密切监视对方,不可能不被发现。即使存在漏洞,从未飞过那一带航线的民航飞行员是不可能知道漏洞在何处的。最可能的是印缅泰以南。而且印度已经承认,雷达没有开机。

    • 家园 丢脸的预测。

      不会用太久,就会证明你的预测是完全错误的。

      马来西亚的人特别平和,牛奶与流蜜之地,怎能有正副机长劫机呢?何况副机师才27岁即将结婚,更美好的生活在未来。

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