主题：美国开始给丢弃台湾造舆论了 -- xiaobailong

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/11/opinion/to-save-our-economy-ditch-taiwan.html?_r=2

To Save Our Economy, Ditch Taiwan

By PAUL V. KANE

Published: November 10, 2011

Sign In to E-Mail

Print

Reprints

Washington

Related

Times Topics: Taiwan | China

WITH a single bold act, President Obama could correct the country’s course, help assure his re-election, and preserve our children’s future.

He needs to redefine America’s mindset about national security away from the old defense mentality that American power derives predominantly from our military might, rather than from the strength, agility and competitiveness of our economy. He should make it clear that today American jobs and wealth matter more than military prowess.

As Adm. Mike Mullen, then chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, declared last year, “The most significant threat to our national security is our debt.”

There are dozens of initiatives President Obama could undertake to strengthen our economic security. Here is one: He should enter into closed-door negotiations with Chinese leaders to write off the $1.14 trillion of American debt currently held by China in exchange for a deal to end American military assistance and arms sales to Taiwan and terminate the current United States-Taiwan defense arrangement by 2015.

This would be a most precious prize to the cautious men in Beijing, one they would give dearly to achieve. After all, our relationship with Taiwan, as revised in 1979, is a vestige of the cold war.

Today, America has little strategic interest in Taiwan, which is gradually integrating with China economically by investing in and forming joint ventures with mainland Chinese firms. The island’s absorption into mainland China is inevitable.

But the status quo is dangerous; if Taiwanese nationalist politicians decided to declare independence or if Beijing’s hawks tired of waiting for integration and moved to take Taiwan by force, America could suddenly be drawn into a multitrillion-dollar war.

There will be “China hawks” who denounce any deal on Taiwan as American capitulation, but their fear of a Red China menacing Asia is anachronistic. Portraying the United States as a democratic Athens threatened by China’s autocratic Sparta makes for sensational imagery, but nothing could be further from reality.

The battle today is between competing balance sheets, and it is fought in board rooms; it is not a geopolitical struggle to militarily or ideologically “dominate” the Pacific.

In fact, China and the United States have interlocking economic interests. China’s greatest military asset is actually the United States Navy, which keeps the sea lanes safe for China’s resources and products to flow freely.

China would want a deal on Taiwan for several reasons. First, Taiwan is Beijing’s unspoken but hard-to-hide top priority for symbolic and strategic reasons; only access to water and energy mean more to Chinese leaders.

Second, a deal would open a clearer path for the gradual, orderly integration of Taiwan into China.

Third, it would undermine hard-line militarists who use the Taiwan issue to stoke nationalist flames, sideline pro-Western technocrats and extract larger military budgets. And finally, it would save China the considerable sums it has been spending on a vast military buildup.

Jeffrey Lewis, an East Asia expert at the Monterey Institute of International Studies, estimated that one-fourth to one-third of China’s defense spending goes to forces in the vicinity of Taiwan — at a cost of $30 billion to $50 billion a year. A deal for the resolution of Taiwan’s status could save China $500 billion in defense spending by 2020 and allow Beijing to break even by 2030, while reducing America’s debt and serving our broader economic interests.

The Chinese leadership would be startled — for a change — if the United States were to adopt such a savvy negotiating posture. Beyond reducing our debt, a Taiwan deal could pressure Beijing to end its political and economic support for pariah states like Iran, North Korea and Syria and to exert a moderating influence over an unstable Pakistan. It would be a game changer.

The deal would eliminate almost 10 percent of our national debt without raising taxes or cutting spending; it would redirect American foreign policy away from dated cold-war-era entanglements and toward our contemporary economic and strategic interests; and it would eliminate the risk of involvement in a costly war with China.

Critics will call this proposal impractical, even absurd. They will say it doesn’t have a prayer of passing Congress, and doesn’t acknowledge political realities. They might be right — today.

But by pursuing this agenda, Mr. Obama would change the calculus and political reality. And Congress should see a deal with China as an opportunity to make itself credible again.

Debt is not in itself bad, when managed, but today’s unsustainable debt will suffocate our economy, our democracy and our children’s futures.

By tackling the issue of Taiwan, Mr. Obama could address much of what ails him today, sending a message of bold foreign policy thinking and fiscal responsibility that would benefit every citizen and be understood by every voter.

Paul V. Kane, a former international security fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School, is a Marine who served in Iraq.

解放军专家明确表态：琉球不属于日本 日本须放弃

2011年11月11日 08:48

来源：人民网

字号:T|T

0人参与0条评论打印转发

康熙皇帝御赐琉球国王金匾——中山世土。中山即琉球三山分国时期的中山国，后又代指琉球国。此匾意指中山王世世代代都是琉球国的统治者。

第二次世界大战结束后，根据《开罗宣言》和《波茨坦公告》，日本应该无条件放弃对琉球的占领。

在当时的特殊条件下，琉球群岛一度由联合国托管，但事实上，是由美国一家托管。70年代，美国单方面将琉球的行政管理权移交给日本。这是无效的。

[网友文学大王]:两位嘉宾好，我们有没有能力保护好南海安全？如果一旦因为冲突发生海域战争，中国有没有把握打赢海战？当年因为第七舰队影响我们解放台湾，假如现在美国又派航母来干涉，我们是否又只能望海兴叹？

[李杰]:南海的安全维护，应该说不是仅靠军事力量或者武力这种单一手段来解决的，应该靠多种手段的联合应用，包括政治、经济、外交、文化、军事等多种手段的并用。

但是，一旦某些国家恣意妄为，胆敢挑衅中国的海洋安全底线的话，我们也必须要以武力来坚决捍卫与保护。与南海周边一些国家相比，应该说我们的海空力量还是具有相当的优势的。

不过，如果美国等西方域外大国要插手南海事务，将会使南海的局势和问题变得比较复杂。

[网友海纳百川中国沙河]:中国第一张无人岛使用权证颁出，宁波一公司老总344万购象山旦门山岛，使用年限50年，借鉴事例请问专家对我南海无数无人岛屿开发怎么看？

[彭光谦]:加强对南海的资源开发，是目前体现我国对南海的主权存在的重要方式。南海的开发应该创新思路，官民并举，多路推进。像引进民间资本，开发无人岛的做法，是可以探索推广的。