主题：【原创】数字来说话--为子玉兄的美元理论做注解 -- 种植园土
- 复 不错！
家园 comments below yours I think US stock is fine.
--capital market is interlinked. Crisis hit confidence and banks. Both will hit on credit expansion. Credit hits stock.
As you said, European banks and sovereign debt will eventually bring down Euro, should the rick people move their money to Swiss or US for less risk?
--it already happened... Swiss franc has reached historical high against Euro. You are too late to the game!
Rush to USD--yes, for risk aversion.
Chinese A stock will perform better. People are willing to do anything to get rich. There are still room to expand.
--hehe. No comment. So you imply that the 2008 US stock market crash is due to the facts that Americans are NO longer willing to work hard to get rich? hehe.
家园 it comes down to the earning I do not know. The earnings of big US companies have been really good. If you are saying the bank/credit crisis could bring down the European stock market, I agree. But why US and China market? US banks are not much exposed to the European sovereign debt and have tons of easy money from the Fed. I still do not see how could US stock market down say 10% be the end of the year.
The key to China's A stock is government policy. If government stop tightening, I think they implied they will stop tightening, China's economy will just keep booming. GDP still grows at 9.5% with all the tightening. 9.5%!!!!!! Crash of China's A stock market? Tell me how.
I was bearish on China's A stock last year. However, I changed my mind after I visit China this year. It is still in early stage for China's economic boom.
家园 earning can be misleading for example, the new GM performs pretty good now. But how competitive is its core business? To which extent the new accounting profit benefits from previous bankrupcy? I am still doubtful.
AIG still hides a lot of bullshit. Every insider of Wallstreet knows that. But its data looks not bad too.
U.S. used to be dominated by giant, lucrative monopolitic companies--the so called backbone of US economy. They are still profitable--though the number of such companies is decreasing.
US will not callapse. US is just declining.
家园 问个个人性质的小问题 现在值不值得把手里的一部分加元换成美元？
尤其考虑到想明年去美国读书。。。。
家园 there is still possibility that Canadian dollars will appreciate further against USD.
Canadian dollars are driven by prices of two key commodities: gold and oil.
1.05 USD vs. 1CAD is a very good price already. Historically, it is quite high already.
From central banker's perspective, the currency CAD-USD exchange rate has made many industries in Canada uncompetitive. Therefore, despite all signals of overheating in Canada, Mark Carney has refused to raise central bank target rate for more than 8 months--I am sure that if the exchange rate reach 1.10, Bank of Canada will intervene in the market to depreciate Canadian dollar.
My two cents.
家园 昨天我也想补充两句 老兄提到的挪威克郎和加元都属于石油货币,但加元还和黄金关联.今年加元和往年的走势很不同,目前的确是"Historically high",但过去几年只有1-2个月可以突破1.0,而今年已经数月站在1.0之上.显示基本面变了,未必是加拿大国内经济的基本面出现明显好转,而是相比之下美国经济的基本面持续恶化.
加息的呼声一直有,无论是财长还是Mark Carney都不时提醒老百姓降低资产负债率(防止加息后破产),目前加元的高汇价对加拿大的旅游业,木材出口还有东部的制造业压力非常大,所以高官们只能开吹风会,光打雷不下雨.而美国那边又担心国债利息的偿还能力,还有可能的QE3,加拿大要想等FED进入加息循环前再提利息恐怕且得等一段时间了.
看来在不远的将来要重返前高1.1.
8年前1.3:1,4年前1:1.1,河东河西也就是4年光景.等国债话题结束,QE3到来之前,由中国GDP增长减缓带来的效应才能完全显现,届时加元又有一场暴跌.
家园 you have put everything I want to say in Chinese. Thanks.
I agree with you 100%.
家园 可不可以请你多讲讲欧洲的危机对 emerging market (including China) 的影响？谢谢。
家园 two types of emerging ones. Newly industrialized ones (such as India or China) and pure resource sellers, such as Brazil/Russia.
I focus on one key link: demand.
Europe is an industrialized block. If Europe repeated the same fate as Asia did in late 1990s, demand for oil, industrial raw materials will fall by not a small margin.
Europe is China's key export market(No.1). With a collapsed banking sytem and dramatic credit contraction, China will also shut down half of its export industries. Further hit to commodity demand.
Then Brazil and some other resource exporters will experience another 2008. Or early 1990s after the US long recession again?
History is not far away--I remember in 1998, after the Asia Economic Crisis, the oil price fell to $10 per barrel. Then Russia had debt crisis... and then it came back to haunt US stock market.
I am not sure about oil price this time, but I am quite sure about the trend of industrial metals.
One problem with those resource-rich nations: money comes too easily and boom comes too fast and most people can not look forward for 10 years. People party like nuts when everything looks so good.
Then cycle reverses and commodity industries have severe overcapacity--it is a weird industry: slow to add capacity and slow to reduce capacity.
This drama happened again and again in the last 200 years.
Examples: oil industry in Pennsylvania in mid-19th century in America (US oil was once 1cent per barrel--I am not kidding); commodity boom and bust in 1970s--then Latin American debt crisis;
The list is long.......
Analysis of India--please refer to Ji Di Wang Tian's posts.
家园 多谢你的分享 我的一位朋友在广东开厂做外贸生意。她说一位散代（散货货运代理）告诉她现在的行情还不如2008年。不过另外有在江苏开厂的亲戚好像感觉影响不大（他们不是做外贸的。不过他们的顾客是不是我不清楚），不过今年确实不如去年。他们2008年也没有受到太大影响。
我说这些的意思是外贸内贸各自对中国经济的影响有多大？如果2008再来一次对中国的影响会怎样？另外中国地方融资平台的问题也许不想想象中那么严重。
如果几大主要经济体为了对付危机大肆发钞，商品价格会不会被人为推高？矿山，油田的增产往往要花很长时间的。现在油价九十几美元已经算比较高了，可是石油公司投资仍然相当谨慎，这个势必影响到供给。08年的金融危机导致很多石油、矿业的项目由于融资困难而停摆。所以是否overcapacity还值得研究。也许从欧洲危机爆发到商品价格暴跌会有一个时间差。当然最终资源国逃不了贱卖资源还债的命运（这个发生过）。
家园 十分赞同第二点！ 纵观历史，除了英国是第一个工业革命的国家，后面的发达国家，不管是法国德国日本美国苏联中国，没有一个不是拼命发展制造业和高科技的“坏家伙”，没有一个不经过大规模流血的抗争（除了美国，但它有为了实现工业化而流血的内战，且坐收一战二战之渔利的机会举世罕有），而偏偏没有一个是原料国通过卖资源坐享其成转变为发达国家的。资源国们顶多是某个阶段的富裕国，但绝不可能是有长期影响力的发达国家。
家园 美国的今天已在顶峰 衰落是必然的。1980s年代的时候，美国的许多公司办有很出色的食堂，可以随便吃，现在这样的公司还有几个？
1990s-2000s年代的时候,美国ITC产业造就了许多百万、亿万富翁，现在类似的新兴产业、类似的机会还有多少？尤其是在美国推出新技术，中国6个月就可以山寨的时代，超额利润的空间还有多大？
在泡沫经济时代，曼哈顿有些人打赏出租车司机的小费就有100美元。但那个时代美国的工作机会增加了多少？
美国就业机会的减少自80年代就开始了，一直没有扭转过。美国官方统计失业人数是1400万，按照旧统计方法调整过的实际失业人数是2500万。
什么叫福利制度？以纽约州为例，一个黑人单亲妈妈养3个小孩，长到18岁，国家要补贴3×1000×12×18=65万美元，这个单亲妈妈本人要花掉30万美元的补贴与医疗保险，然后她的3个孩子长大后2个进监狱，每人平均花费政府20万美元/年，加入蹲2年监狱，要花掉20×2×2=80万美元。这样一个家庭，不算教育开支，预计会造掉政府财政175万美元。
在一人一票的民主制度下，这样的人投票权增长得很快。美国的新出生婴儿中，白人比例已占绝对少数。你觉得他们维持得下去吗？我预计美国的民主制度还能再坚持至少一代人，但到不了2代人。一个非民主的美国，一个无力用福利制度安抚黑人和拉美裔的美国，你觉得比中国安全吗？
盎格鲁萨克森只是美帝的旧日徽标。现在美国的9大法官，3个犹太人6个天主教。这样的美国也配叫w-a-s-p?
这次要撼动的是美帝的根基：美元霸权。我从不认为美国会垮掉，但是美国的日子绝对会变得很难过。美帝二战以来大趋势是收缩的。苏联垮掉，美国的好日子也不过10年而已。
设想美国最希望垮掉的欧元垮掉了，美国的好日子能维持多久？欧元垮掉，德国人可以更肆无忌惮地拓展空间了。欧元垮掉，人民币也会被迫崛起。
家园 所以有人说堕胎合法以后，美国就繁荣了 这种黑人家庭的孩子早点流掉了，钱就剩下来搞建设了。
所以，魁北克这个天主教地方，每次拿着说事的时候，大家最怕的不是别人反对，而是黑人跑来支持，简直是给对方拉票的。
（别以为别人来帮忙就是好事……）
家园 美国的顶峰在IT泡沫破灭前 从那时到2019会是他的下降期，但是不排除美国通过一系列的运作，重新走上一轮引领世界资本的上升期。而事实上，这个下降周期过了一半，美国做得还不错。在这个下降周期的剩下一半时间里，中国要加油了。
家园 我也倾向于认为美国在走下坡路 不过技术革命是不是就不会有了呢？看看美国的历史，铁路，航空，电报电话，电脑，一波又一波的，难道除了ICT其他都不算技术革命？下一波会是什么呢？材料科学的进步(尤其纳米技术）从来没有止步。当太阳能电池，蓄电池的效率突破某个阀值，当这些技术的大规模生产变成现实的时候，美国对化石能源的依赖将大大降低。那个时候的局面又会是怎样的呢？现在基于人脑结构的神经元电脑已经有些原型的东西做出来了（拜纳米技术之赐，耗电量可以降到可以接受的范围），当这种技术开始应用的时候，我们的生活，生产又会是怎样一番局面？在大家忙于唱空之时，不要忘了社会进步从未停止。