主题：【英文文摘】俄国对石油开采征收重税 -- 西风陶陶

Russia's Oil Boom Ends as Putin Control Hurts Investment

March 15 (Bloomberg) -- A five-year oil boom is ending in Russia, the world's second-largest oil exporter, as President Vladimir Putin increases government control over the industry, hurting investment in new wells, rigs and pipelines.

Output will rise 3.8 percent this year, less than half the average rate during the past five years and the lowest since $10 oil hurt investment in 1999, the Paris-based International Energy Agency estimates. A tax increase last year means the government takes most of the gains as crude trades above $50 a barrel.

Drilling in Russia fell last year as the government demanded $28 billion in back taxes from OAO Yukos Oil Co., raising concern that other oil companies may face similar claims. The jailing of Yukos's biggest investor, Mikhail Khodorkovsky, contributed to a $7.8 billion outflow of capital from Russia last year. The benchmark RTS stock index had its worst year since 2000.

``The situation is dreadful,'' said Ivan Mazalov, who manages about $650 million at Prosperity Capital Management, one of the three largest foreign funds based in Moscow. ``When property is torn apart, people forget about business development.''

A slowdown in Russian oil production gives greater power to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries as world oil demand rises. The group, whose members pump about 40 percent of the world's oil, is scheduled to meet in Isfahan, Iran, tomorrow to discuss second-quarter output.

Russian oil drilling declined 2.8 percent to 9 million meters of wells last year, according to Industry and Energy Ministry data. Yukos, based in Moscow, reduced drilling by 37 percent, more than any other Russian oil company, followed by OAO Lukoil, Russia's largest oil producer, with a 6.2 percent decline.

Yukos shares have plunged 96 percent since Oct. 25, 2003, when Khodorkovsky was arrested in Siberia and jailed in Moscow on charges of fraud and tax evasion that he denies. He calls the allegations a retribution for backing opponents to Putin.

Exxon Reticence

Exxon Mobil Corp., the world's largest publicly traded oil company, in 2003 held talks to acquire a stake in Yukos, which then was the largest producer of Russian oil. Exxon Mobil Chairman Lee R. Raymond in December said he was wary of making large, new investments in Russia because of the Yukos crackdown.

The government's actions raise questions about Russia's energy policy, Raymond, 66, said during an interview with the Charlie Rose television program in New York. ``Until some clarity comes to that, I think it's going to be pretty difficult for people to think about putting large sums of money in as an investment,'' he said.

Putin, 52, is consolidating the government's energy interests in OAO Gazprom, the state-run natural gas producer. The government also plans to let only local companies bid for the largest oil, gas and metal fields, the Natural Resources Ministry said on Feb. 10.

No Rights

Russia last year canceled the rights of Exxon Mobil, based in Irving, Texas, and San Ramon, California-based ChevronTexaco Corp. to the Sakhalin-3 oil fields in the Pacific Ocean, which hold an estimated 4.1 billion barrels of oil reserves, more than Russia's current output. The fields also hold 1.5 trillion cubic meters of gas reserves, enough to fuel the U.S. for more than two years.

Russia's Anti-Monopoly Service has delayed for about half a year approval of Total SA's plan to buy a 25 percent stake in OAO Novatek, Russia's second-largest natural-gas producer. Paris-based Total, Europe's third-largest oil company, agreed in September to pay $850 million for the stake in the Russian company.

``It is important that the rules governing that development, the role of the government, the role of the state companies and the roles and responsibilities of international investors should be clear and secure. So should the fiscal regime,'' BP Plc Chief Executive John Browne said Feb. 23. ``For many potential investors and for many commentators and observers, Russia remains a dark and hostile place, a source of risk rather than of opportunity.''

Slowing Growth

The International Energy Agency predicts Russian crude extraction will rise by no more than 350,000 barrels a day to an average of 9.6 million barrels a day this year, compared with 9 percent growth in 2004 and an 11 percent increase in 2003.

Russia's economy expansion probably will slow this year, Deputy Economics Minister Andrei Sharonov said on Feb 7. Gross domestic product may expand 6.3 percent this year from 7.1 percent in 2004. The country holds almost 10 percent of the world's oil reserves and about a third of the global natural gas resources, Yuri Trutnev, the natural resources minister, told parliament on Feb. 11.

Alexei Gromov, a spokesman for Putin, wasn't available for a comment. A spokeswoman on duty in the Kremlin declined to comment.

Billionaires

Russia had raised oil production 50 percent since 1999, to about 9.2 million barrels a day last year. This partly became possible after Khodorkovsky, 41, and Roman Abramovich, 38, a billionaire who holds stakes in companies including Moscow-based OAO Sibneft, the country's fifth-biggest oil producer, made fortunes buying former state-owned assets after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.

London-based BP, the world's second largest publicly-traded oil producer, in 2003 and 2004 invested almost $8 billion in Russia to create TNK-BP, Russia's No. 3 oil producer last year.

``Russia has been the engine for non-Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries supply growth,'' the International Energy Agency said in February. ``Recent months, however, have seen a sharp tailing off in growth, which, if continued, points to a less pre-eminent role for Russian supply growth for 2005.''

Tax Increase

Russian production growth is slowing after the government last year raised taxes on oil producers, taking most of the profit when crude prices are above $25 a barrel. Russian oil has been above that level since 2003, and Brent crude, which serves as a benchmark for Russian oil, traded near a record last week.

``With the new tax laws put in place last year, effectively 90 percent of the cash flow above $25 goes to the government, so we are not actually enjoying the benefits of these high oil prices,'' said TNK-BP Chief Executive Robert Dudley in a Jan. 29 interview.

What's more, oil producers are able to export only about two- fifths of their crude through pipelines operated by OAO Transneft, the state-owned monopoly. The rest has to be shipped either by railroads, which are more expensive, or refined locally.

Transneft and the authorities plan to keep monopoly control over the pipelines and have rejected proposals from Lukoil, Yukos, TNK-BP and Sibneft to build export links from Siberian fields to ship oil to the U.S. and China. The companies planned to spend about $7.8 billion on the lines.

Clogged Pipelines

Clogged pipelines are boosting transport costs. Lukoil forecasts shipping costs of $3 billion this year, up 20 percent from 2004. The sum is equal to Lukoil's capital spending this year, according to Deputy Chief Executive Officer Leonid Fedun.

The transport costs at TNK-BP rose 77 percent to $1.5 billion in 2003, according to the most recent figures available. The company expects a 7 percent increase in production this year, half the pace of 2004, chief executive Dudley said in an interview on March 10.

``Companies are less aggressive to tap new fields as they are not sure whether they able to take out crude because of pipeline capacity restrictions,'' said Kaha Kiknavelidze, an analyst at Troika Dialog brokerage in Moscow, in an interview.

Transneft plans to raise exports 7.1 percent to 5.1 million barrels a day this year, Chief Executive Officer Semyon Vainshtok said last month.

The Moscow-based company plans to invest about $500 million to expand capacity of the Baltic oil pipeline that ships Siberian crude to a Baltic Sea port. It also plans to build a $11.5 billion link from eastern Siberia to Russia's Pacific coast. The pipeline may take six to nine years to complete, and the two projects are straining Transneft's ability to work on other new pipelines.

``Do you think we can work on three similar-scale projects simultaneously, do you know any other companies in the world able to handle such projects?,'' Vainshtok asked last month.

Sergei Oganesyan, director of the Federal Energy Agency, the government's energy regulator, last May was the first official to say Russia's biggest production growth was over.

``The period of easy-to-recover oil is finishing,'' he said at the time.

To contact the reporter on this story:

Eduard Gismatullin in London at [email protected]

To contact the editor responsible for this story:

Tim Coulter at [email protected]

Last Updated: March 14, 2005 19:07 EST