主题：欧洲将死,G-2当立! 立此存照--in Feb. -- parishg
家园 希腊债务是块砖，哪里有用往哪儿搬 希腊债务是块砖，哪里有用往哪儿搬。
家园 大幅加息其实是加速经济休克的 感觉是脑袋进水了，居然在经济疲软的时候加息。97年亚洲金融危机的时候，就有深刻教训的，本币崩溃时候大量加息，无法制止资金外流，因为这个时候，资金是恐慌性的外流，根本不可能为了一点息口把资金留在这个危险国家内。
大幅加息有非常强的反作用，就是会抽干实体经济的流动性，实体经济无法承受15％的利息，被迫减少向银行的贷款，要么效益大幅下降要么资金链断裂；股市也同时大幅下跌，无法发挥融资作用。最后结果就是经济哀鸿遍野，大量企业休克，结果是被国外收购。
实际上，我觉得象韩国这样的，不听IMF，限制资金留出，发动全国人民的外币和贵重金属集中来对外偿付，发行特别国债，由国家来承担外币和贵金属的利息，这才能减少损失。
只能说，牛皮烘烘的经济学家们，又忽悠了一位信奉自由主义的不幸者。
对我们倒是好事，象我国这样，正好手头有大量被某些人称为“绿色废纸”的外汇储备的，可以等他们股市大跌以后去廉价收购。只是希腊没有啥石油和矿产资源，也没啥高新技术.....寄希望于风波快点扩展到其他欧洲国家了。
家园 这次希腊倒不是脑袋进水，这次是“被加息”。 这次希腊倒不是脑袋进水，这次是“被加息”。投资者不愿冒风险买它的债券造成它的债券价格大跌，收益率狂飙。希腊不是被忽悠的，希腊是被它自己前些年不负责任的财政政策压垮的。葡萄牙也一样。
任何希腊新发行的债券必须随行就市，就是要提供15%的年利率。也就是说，任何一笔旧债到期后，希腊政府必须要为新债付15%的年息才能借得着。按楼下提供的数据，希腊共欠债3000亿，年财政收入500亿。3000亿国债乘以15%的年息是450亿的利息支出，差不多是财政收入全填进利息里了。希腊政府不吃不喝也就刚够还利息，希腊破产看来是毫无悬念的。下面就看欧盟和IMF怎么折腾了。
而且这是多米诺骨牌，希腊一旦开始赖债，其中相当一部分就是欠其他PIIGS国家的，本来财政状况就在悬崖边的它们也会受到极大损失而可能被拖下水。
家园 while 只是希腊没有啥石油和矿产资源，也没啥高新技术 but they are never short of incapability of seeing their own incompetence and inefficiency as well as European arrogance against Asians...
Some Greeks friends told me in early 2010 that "Germans will help us". OKAY! So finally they got Germany's middle-finger and was sent to the ER(emergency room) of IMF.
寄希望于风波快点扩展到其他欧洲国家了--ya, let's wait and see. 2010-11 will be THE SOVEREIGN BANKRUPTCY YEAR(s) OF THE ARROGANT EUROLAND.
家园 最新消息，法兰克福央行，不准备保葡萄牙了。 甩掉，直接全力保西班牙。
家园 我正奇怪怎么没人提这件事,谢宝 送花 关闭
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家园 高盛之类的要想躲过一劫 就只有再当一次马前卒鸟
家园 花！何时是欧元的历史大底？ 到时候一定要去游说国内投资机构开欧系资产的产品。
家园 update on Spain http://www.ccthere.com/alist/2865650
家园 I thought I was giving you a private message...
I did not realize that you even promote it to the general public. To be frank, I prefer to keep this small circle discussion since I am shy of controversial publicity.
家园 OK I've rolled back the "宝推" operation.
Thank the forum designer implemented so many flexible tools.
家园 wait. Germany still refuses to understake its leadership and it lacks domestic political support to do so. haha, hopeless European hypocrites who can only debate and debate in a useless European parliament.
America will not just finish the killing in 3 weeks--the decline will be persistent with a general downward trend for Euro and European financial assets. You should see big drops on a few occasions, then even small rise, then big drops again. I will not be surprised if the whole "crisis" persists into 2011. Anyway, if you want to scare out European capital into American dollar assets, you definitely have to give enough time for capital to flight, right? And you can not do it too fast because it might hurt your own market too if it turns into a GLOBAL FINANCIAL asset meltdown.
Next domino is now Portugal--it is a dying nation.
Then Two key pieces to fall are
Spain(real estate bubble burst, banking problem, large current and budget deficit, social unrest due to 20%+ unemployment, but solid debt level) and
Italy (lazy, womanizer, ass-obsesser, HIGHLY inefficient, >120% debt/GDP level, totally incompetitive in terms of industrial products and social infrastructure).
Spain/Italy are two big ?s. If one of them falls into death spiral, then I really do not know where is the bottom for Euro and Euroland...
Keep in mind: low Euro-USD exchange rate is not bad for Germany/French export. It is bad for PIIGs because capital is flowing out and its financial system is collapsing. Based on purchasing power parity, Euro is still heavily overvalued at 1.33. Anyway, Germans NEVER WANT TO HAVE ITALY in this Euroland. Italians and Greeks are two big cheaters in this Euro league.
Actually during this crisis, the only financial asset that gain value is gold: during 2008 crisis, gold fell when dollars appreciated. This time, all fiat money fall, but gold jumps.
通宝推：猪头大将,
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