主题：【英文文摘】假如KERRY当选，阁下该买什么股票 -- 西风陶陶

注明：本文只是一些传统智慧，切切不可将其作为投资的主要依据

John Dorfman , president of Dorfman Investments in Boston, is a columnist for Bloomberg News. The opinions expressed are his own. His firm or its clients may own or trade investments discussed in this column.

Dow's Decline Points to Possible Kerry Victory: John Dorfman

Oct. 14 (Bloomberg) -- If the Dow Jones Industrial Average continues its current decline, we may be inaugurating John Kerry as president.

That's a prediction based on data developed by James Stack, a market pundit from Whitefish, Montana. Stack notes that in 24 of the 26 U.S. presidential elections since 1900, the direction of the stock market in the two months preceding the vote accurately predicted the election.

A gain in the Dow Jones Industrials predicted a victory by the incumbent party. If the Dow fell, the incumbent party lost. The only two exceptions were 1956 (when the Dow dropped 2.8 percent but Dwight D. Eisenhower won re-election) and 1968 (when the Dow rose 3.1 percent but Hubert Humphrey and the incumbent Democrats lost to Richard Nixon).

So far, the Dow has a total return of negative 1.9 percent after dividends from Sept. 2 through Oct. 12.

Politics and stocks intersect in two ways. You can buy stocks that may get a short-term or intermediate-term lift from one candidate's victory. Or you can watch stocks in the days leading up to the election to see if the market is giving a hint as to who will win.

Bush Indicators

If chemical, oil and defense stocks are strong in the rest of October, that will be a sign that Wall Street anticipates a win for President George W. Bush. If education and environmental- protection stocks are strong, it may mean that the Street is betting on Kerry.

A victory by Kerry would probably be good for environmental stocks (Democrats generally favor more anti-pollution regulations) and for education stocks. Both candidates promise to support education, but I figure Kerry would spend more money on it.

The re-election of Bush would most likely help oil, chemical and defense stocks. Bush spent part of his life in the oil industry. Vice President Richard Cheney was chief executive of Halliburton Co. Both have friends in the energy business and are sympathetic to its concerns.

Because Republicans usually favor fewer and more industry- friendly environmental regulations, chemical companies and oil companies would probably have to spend less under Bush to comply with environmental laws.

Health-Care Mixed Bag

As for defense spending, I believe both parties support continued increases. (That's why I own a lot of defense stocks.) The pace of increases would probably be more rapid under a Republican administration.

Health-care stocks are a mixed bag. Drug stocks, I believe, would do better under Bush. A Kerry administration might be more likely to accelerate drug imports from Canada, regulate the health-care industry and set limits on the prices that government programs such as Medicare will pay for drugs.

Some other health-care stocks might do better under Kerry. He might, for example, support more generous Medicare spending on home health care.

Bush's tax policies, in my judgment, tend to favor people in the top tax brackets, while Kerry's are geared more to giving middle-income people a tax break. Sellers of luxury goods, therefore, might benefit from Bush's re-election, while lower-end retailers might gain from Kerry's ascent.

Since many big investors are in the top tax brackets, money management firms and brokerage houses might benefit from a Bush win or be hurt by a Kerry win.

Bond Market

Then there's the bond market. Both parties claim to be the party of fiscal responsibility. In fact, it remains to be seen whether either party can balance the budget. I think Kerry has as good a shot at this task as Bush, but the conventional wisdom is that Kerry, as a Democrat, would be a freer spender.

Therefore, a Kerry victory would probably produce at least a short-term decline in bonds. Bond investors tend to worry about government deficits because if the government borrows more, it competes with private businesses for borrowed funds, which pushes interest rates up.

In making these points, I'm trying to be objective. In case anyone wants to take my personal biases into account, I usually vote Democratic and am voting for Kerry this year.

Kerry Portfolio

Here is a five-stock Kerry Portfolio, designed to benefit if the four-term senator from Massachusetts becomes president.

-- Buy American Ecology Corp. (ECOL), a waste disposal and treatment company.

-- Buy Renaissance Learning Inc. (RLRN), which makes educational software.

-- Buy Lincare Holdings Inc. (LNCR), which provides oxygen and respiratory therapy services to patients in their homes.

-- Buy TJX Cos. (TJX), a retailer of low-priced and mid- priced clothing and housewares.

-- Sell short Halliburton (HAL).

Conversely, here is a possible five-stock Bush Portfolio, which should do well if the former oilman and baseball team owner keeps control of the White House.

-- Buy Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM), the largest U.S. oil company, based in Bush's home state of Texas.

-- Buy General Dynamics Corp. (GD), a defense contractor that makes tanks, planes and submarines, and also business jets.

-- Buy Pfizer Inc. (PFE), the largest U.S. drug company.

-- Buy Neiman Marcus Group Inc. (NMG/A), a high-end department store chain.

-- Buy Merrill Lynch & Co. (MER), the largest U.S. brokerage firm.

Bear in mind that the influence of the election on the stock market is limited. Economic and geopolitical issues move stocks. Who occupies the Oval Office is only one part of the picture.

To contact the writer of this column:

John Dorfman in Newton Centre, Massachusetts [email protected].

To contact the editor responsible for this column:

Bill Ahearn at [email protected].

Last Updated: October 14, 2004 00:03 EDT