主题：【原创】乱弹TG第一回:话说TG这次实验的心路历程 -- face888

＂Obama said he would support missile defense if it proved workable.＂

＂The type of ground-based interceptors that would be deployed in Europe failed to hit targets in five of 13 tests, according to the Pentagon. They have not demonstrated an ability to detect decoys, the Government Accountability Office (GAO) says.＂

＂In the most recent test of the U.S.-based system, an interceptor launched in December from California destroyed a warhead launched from Alaska. But a goal of the test was to see if the interceptor could distinguish a live warhead from decoys, and the decoys failed to deploy.＂

The successful tests "have all been scripted for success," said former Pentagon testing chief Philip Coyle, another skeptic. "It's a little bit like comparing the results of students doing open book exams."

Richard Lehner, spokesman for the U.S. Missile Defense Agency, disputed those assessments. In an e-mail, he said the tests are "as operationally realistic as possible."

Physicist Richard Garwin, who helped design the hydrogen bomb and served recently on a commission to assess the ballistic missile threat, said in an email that because it can be so easily defeated by decoys, the "system is not worth deploying, because it will be useless."

可以看到，其实美国人对自己的系统也很没底．首先是其反导实验中预设的情况被人所垢病，被认为缺乏实战价值．（当然，反导部门的发言人认为实验已经离现实世界很接近了）其次，美国的反导系统尚未证明其有辨别诱饵的能力，怀疑者认为简单的气球就可以骗过反导弹头．（０８年，美国对上那次反导试验就是想看看其系统有否辨别诱饵的能力，可惜诱饵没有成功和来袭弹头分离．如此说来，美国最后一次的实验并不能算成功）

Perhaps the most often cited limitation of the antiballistic missile program involves testing scenarios that do not mimic real-world battle conditions, a problem even Pentagon overseers acknowledge. Charles E. McQueary, director of the Defense Department's Operational Test and Evaluation command, writes in his 2008 annual assessment of the missile agency that "additional test data collected under realistic flight test conditions is necessary to validate models and simulations and to increase confidence." Experts like Philip E. Coyle III, a senior advisor to the World Security Institute and former assistant secretary of defense in the Clinton administration, are more blunt in their criticism. "It's embarrassing to the Missile Defense Agency and to their contractors when these tests fail, and it can also be costly," Coyle says. "Contractors can lose their award fee if a test fails and try to plan each test so it won't fail."

Paul Francis, director of the U.S. Government Accountability Office's acquisition and sourcing management division, told lawmakers in February 2009 of a different problem. Francis said that the Missile Defense Agency had begun fielding system components before being adequately tested, raising the possibility of cost overruns and making it impossible to determine the system's progress. Some congressional leaders, like Senator Carl Levin ，suggest the time has come to rein in that spending. "The Missile Defense Agency was allowed to cut corners" in the early years of the Bush administration, Levin told Bloomberg in February 2009. "I would say we've got to slow that down and properly test it."

这里我们再次看到了美帝的反导实验预设的问题，连五角大楼负责监督实验进程的官员也承认必须作出修正．还有一点就是美国的反导系统在没有经过充分的试验之前就已经开始部署了，有政绩工程的嫌疑．