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主题:【原创】乱弹TG第一回:话说TG这次实验的心路历程 -- face888

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家园 事实表明TG的这次实验真是世界第一了

关于美国的反导系统,我在网上查了查,有些很有趣的东西.如这篇去年刊登在USA TODAY上的文章

外链出处

原文太长,只贴出有意思的几段:

"Obama said he would support missile defense if it proved workable."

"The type of ground-based interceptors that would be deployed in Europe failed to hit targets in five of 13 tests, according to the Pentagon. They have not demonstrated an ability to detect decoys, the Government Accountability Office (GAO) says."

"In the most recent test of the U.S.-based system, an interceptor launched in December from California destroyed a warhead launched from Alaska. But a goal of the test was to see if the interceptor could distinguish a live warhead from decoys, and the decoys failed to deploy."

The successful tests "have all been scripted for success," said former Pentagon testing chief Philip Coyle, another skeptic. "It's a little bit like comparing the results of students doing open book exams."

Richard Lehner, spokesman for the U.S. Missile Defense Agency, disputed those assessments. In an e-mail, he said the tests are "as operationally realistic as possible."

Physicist Richard Garwin, who helped design the hydrogen bomb and served recently on a commission to assess the ballistic missile threat, said in an email that because it can be so easily defeated by decoys, the "system is not worth deploying, because it will be useless."

可以看到,其实美国人对自己的系统也很没底.首先是其反导实验中预设的情况被人所垢病,被认为缺乏实战价值.(当然,反导部门的发言人认为实验已经离现实世界很接近了)其次,美国的反导系统尚未证明其有辨别诱饵的能力,怀疑者认为简单的气球就可以骗过反导弹头.(08年,美国对上那次反导试验就是想看看其系统有否辨别诱饵的能力,可惜诱饵没有成功和来袭弹头分离.如此说来,美国最后一次的实验并不能算成功)

还有一篇:

外链出处

Perhaps the most often cited limitation of the antiballistic missile program involves testing scenarios that do not mimic real-world battle conditions, a problem even Pentagon overseers acknowledge. Charles E. McQueary, director of the Defense Department's Operational Test and Evaluation command, writes in his 2008 annual assessment of the missile agency that "additional test data collected under realistic flight test conditions is necessary to validate models and simulations and to increase confidence." Experts like Philip E. Coyle III, a senior advisor to the World Security Institute and former assistant secretary of defense in the Clinton administration, are more blunt in their criticism. "It's embarrassing to the Missile Defense Agency and to their contractors when these tests fail, and it can also be costly," Coyle says. "Contractors can lose their award fee if a test fails and try to plan each test so it won't fail."

Paul Francis, director of the U.S. Government Accountability Office's acquisition and sourcing management division, told lawmakers in February 2009 of a different problem. Francis said that the Missile Defense Agency had begun fielding system components before being adequately tested, raising the possibility of cost overruns and making it impossible to determine the system's progress. Some congressional leaders, like Senator Carl Levin ,suggest the time has come to rein in that spending. "The Missile Defense Agency was allowed to cut corners" in the early years of the Bush administration, Levin told Bloomberg in February 2009. "I would say we've got to slow that down and properly test it."

这里我们再次看到了美帝的反导实验预设的问题,连五角大楼负责监督实验进程的官员也承认必须作出修正.还有一点就是美国的反导系统在没有经过充分的试验之前就已经开始部署了,有政绩工程的嫌疑.

PS:从报道看来,美帝的反导系统必须面对识别诱饵这个难题,它的中段拦截毫无疑问属于后半程.而至今还没有看到美帝有解决方案,其系统也因此被反对者批为毫无实战意义.而TG的拦截在中段的前半程,在诱饵放出之前.现在看来,应该可以算是世界第一了.就算数据是预设的,实战意义还是比美帝的高上一筹.难怪美国急火攻心,连google这样的美国隐藏特工(不说google map, google earth, 单单每个国家的人所搜索的对象,已经可以分析出不少有价值的东西了)都抛出来和中国打擂台,都是气得啊.......


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