主题：杠杆外汇讨论贴，今探讨日元贴 -- 凡妮娅
家园 杠杆外汇讨论贴，今探讨日元贴 看船长的外汇贴引出许多河友，似乎大家都在外汇的。
既然有人，不如探讨下。
暂且说日元: 美日，98-99压力那是很明显的，显然现在面临突破100失败，回落是肯定，但是这个回落是彻底打坏上涨的通道呢，还是只是一次回调？
目前我觉得像回调，所以依照1小时和4小时（软件用MT的）看，我觉得在95.50-94.50之间的支撑可能有(1月21日下跌开始后的上涨通道的支撑线)
下图，大家讨论下
P.S 贴图？ 怎么贴图。。。。
没明白怎么贴图。。。。
放自己blog算了 ， 图太大，记得点下。
http://www.wangzihang.com/read.php/8.htm
家园 周四因为镑美而探讨镑日 周二1.424多单，盈利设定1.47，晚上平仓完成。 胆小对于长期单从来只拿0.1或者0.2
观察镑美后考虑镑日
http://www.wangzihang.com/read.php/10.htm
各位有空，请给偶的个人blog捧个场，去砸个砖。
英镑经过本周一突破日线boll跌破1.42到达1.41，但没破掉1.40防守线，周二迅速反弹站稳继续前进，显然boll中轨支撑强烈。
今日晚间21：00突破1.47，之后有回调意图。 目前考虑可能会调整到1.4650-1.4600位置，同时近期镑日的趋势显然也是多头，总体考虑低位就多，高位需要考虑下毕竟英镑的1.48位置恐怕不是那么容易过去。
日元最终目标是100之上，目前98-99的压力依旧是很大，但不管如何远期日元目标110是肯定的，而英镑远期反弹目标我看1.52因此为在考虑，是否可以长线多镑日？
考虑， 镑美 1.4550-1.4600 多，目标1.4830 ，过1.4730后设定止损1.4700保证利润的可靠
镑日 145.00-1.4400多单，目标暂时看不清楚。
次考虑1.14空 usdchf
家园 现在准备补仓死扛，要死也要死个明白，呵呵！ 家园 扛住了，后续采用3不原则：不加仓、不平仓、不止损，呵呵！ 家园 精神可嘉,但要学会管理. 交易有凭智慧,感觉,人性的东西.
也有管理的学问在其中,
机会管理,筹码管理,盈亏管理....
结合融通,
方有胜算
家园 英镑到今天，还是趋势不明。 短期趋势暂时还是不明，向上动力还没出现，但是向下似乎又有支撑，可能在1.41-1.44之间波动。
家园 Long term trend Historically, GBP/USD dropped to 1.05 in early 1985. Then it pulled up sharply to 1.49 in 9 months. After that, GBP/USD formed a floor at 1.40, or more roughly speaking, a floor at the range of 1.35 - 1.40. It tested this floor three times in late 1986, early 1993, and 2000-2002. This year it is the fourth time that the pair reaches this floor again. Therefore we have strong reason to believe that the 1.35-1.40 range is solid floor in the long term. Of course, the belief is not for 100% sure. There is still chance that pair may drop deeper to test the 1.05 floor given this global crisis background.
Captain Jack mentioned of two windows overlapping at 3/30/2009. I do see the floor. But, forgive my limited knowledge about Forex, I do not see the window for an increasing trend. With today's background of the coming crisis, I do not forsee a reversed trend in GBP/USD. I only see an opportunity of bouncing back after a sharp drop.
If you look at the patterns of GBP/USD after hitting a floor, you will see that a sharp bouncing up only follows a steep dropping. In early 1993, after a steep dropping, the pair bounced back sharply from 1.41 to 1.59, or 30% of its height from peak to valley, in 2 months. If Captain Jack's prediction is correct, the pair should bounce up from 1.35 to 1.75 in two months, or 46% of its height from peak to valley. Look at its pattern in 1993 and 2000-2002. After hitting its floor in early 1993, the pair spent 4 years to go back to 50% of the height (from 1.41 to 1.71).
I am not saying Captain Jack's opinion is wrong. Jack is an experienced trader, way more than I am. I trust his opinion more than my own. But I would say I suggest use some caution when trading GBP/USD with a long term plan at this point of time. There is still a chance that GBP/USD will fluctuate just above the floor, say, 1.35 - 1.46, for months or even a couple of years. If the pair breaks the floor and go deeper, I won't feel surprise, though I believe the chance may be minor.
家园 过谦了,写的很好,平时不显山不露水哈.
家园 agree 可能在1.41-1.44之间波动My opinion is the range of 1.38 - 1.46. Maybe I am over-conservative.
家园 我也爆仓了 就2天，昨天还是盈利的。今天本来多欧日，那知道一阵急跌就平仓，后面就一路上扬，气的吐血！
家园 外汇市场顺势而为，勿跟市场赌气 家园 建议皇叔再看看肖邦兄最后一段话 蓝色字体的那段。
家园 外汇 上周操作了几把磅美多，损失了
今天再次进入1。4172多单，目前小套，等待验证船长的判断