主题：【价值组实盘报告】第40周：继续震荡格局不变 -- 陈经
家园 看来写wiki的人对波浪理论是持批评态度的，是个艾黑 The Elliott wave principle is a form of technical analysis that attempts to forecast trends in the financial markets and other collective activities. It is named after Ralph Nelson Elliott (1871–1948), an accountant who developed the concept in the 1930s: he proposed that market prices unfold in specific patterns, which practitioners today call Elliott waves. Elliott published his views of market behavior in the book The Wave Principle (1938), in a series of articles in Financial World magazine in 1939, and most fully in his final major work, Nature’s Laws – The Secret of the Universe (1946).[1] Elliott argued that because humans are themselves rhythmical, their activities and decisions could be predicted in rhythms, too. Critics argue that the Elliott wave principle is pseudoscientific and contradicts the efficient market hypothesis.熊仔尝试翻译：艾略特波浪理论以一种技术分析的形式试图去预测股票市场或其他群体活动的趋势。它是由拉尔夫。尼尔森。艾略特的名字命名。艾略特是一位会计师，他上世纪30年代发明了这个理论。他假设股票市场的价格围绕几种特定模式展开。业界人士称之为艾略特波浪。艾略特1939在Financial World写了一系列文章。1946年，他写了他最后一部重要作品，《自然法则-宇宙的秘密》。艾略特认为，由于人类有其自身的节奏，他们的行为和决断就应该可以用节奏去预测。批评家认为艾略特的波浪理论是伪科学并且和有效市场理论矛盾。
家园 只管一万，不管万一！ 在电影梅兰芳中，梅兰芳害怕去了美国遭遇失败，邱如白对怕败的梅兰芳鼓励：“只管一万，不管万一！
在股市中，波浪理论也“只管一万，不管万一”！
至于政策引起的“万一”，只能由操作策略来管！
家园 只管一万，不管万一！ 在电影梅兰芳中，梅兰芳害怕去了美国遭遇失败，邱如白对怕败的梅兰芳鼓励：“只管一万，不管万一！
在股市中，波浪理论也“只管一万，不管万一”！
至于政策引起的“万一”，只能由操作策略来管！
家园 严禁剧透，熊仔还没看呢
家园 再发一点关于波浪理论的，现学现卖，在陈大地盘上摆小摊 这些都是说好话的
Robert Prechter came across Elliott's works while working as a market technician at Merrill Lynch. His fame as a forecaster during the bull market of the 1980s brought the greatest exposure to date to Elliott's theory, and today Prechter remains the most widely known Elliott analyst.Robert Prechter作为美林的一个市场技术员碰到艾略特的作品。他因预测在牛市上世纪80年代而出名，今天Prechter仍然是最广为人知的波浪理论分析师。后文说他是炒股大赛冠军，是个牛牛。
Among market technicians, wave analysis is widely accepted as a component of their trade. Elliott Wave Theory is among the methods included on the exam that analysts must pass to earn the Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation, the professional accreditation developed by the Market Technicians Association (MTA).在技术流派中，波浪分析被广泛接受。它作为交易的一个组成部分。艾略特波浪理论是方法之一列入考试，分析师必须通过获得特许市场技术员（管理队）指定，认可的专业开发的市场技术员协会（ MTA ）的。
Robin Wilkin, Global Head of FX and Commodity Technical Strategy at JPMorgan Chase, says "the Elliott Wave principle… provides a probability framework as to when to enter a particular market and where to get out, whether for a profit or a loss."罗宾威尔金，全球外汇负责人及技术战略商品摩根大通说， “艾略特波浪的原则...提供了一个概率框架何时进入某一特定市场，并在那里走出，不论是盈利或亏损。 ”
Jordan Kotick, Global Head of Technical Strategy at Barclays Capital and past President of the Market Technicians Association, has said that R. N. Elliott's "discovery was well ahead of its time. In fact, over the last decade or two, many prominent academics have embraced Elliott’s idea and have been aggressively advocating the existence of financial market fractals."Jordan Kotick ，全球元首的技术策略巴克莱资本和过去的主席市场技术员协会曾表示，Elliott的“发现之前的时间。事实上，在过去Elliott的十年或二十年，许多著名的学者已接受的想法，并已积极倡导的存在金融市场的分形。 “
One such academic is the physicist Didier Sornette, visiting professor at the Department of Earth and Space Science and the Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics at UCLA. A paper he co-authored in 1996 ("Stock Market Crashes, Precursors and Replicas") said,"... We speculate that the 'Elliott waves', so strongly rooted in the financial analysts’ folklore, could be a signature of an underlying critical structure of the stock market."[10]
Didier Sornette说，
“（熊仔略掉点）。我们推测， '艾略特波浪' ，如此强烈地根植于金融分析师的传统，可以称为股票市场的基本要素。 “
家园 再发一点对波浪理论的批评，google翻译的很好啊 The premise that markets unfold in recognizable patterns contradicts the efficient market hypothesis, which says that prices cannot be predicted from market data such as moving averages and volume. By this reasoning, if successful market forecasts were possible, investors would buy (or sell) when the method predicted a price increase (or decrease), to the point that prices would rise (or fall) immediately, thus destroying the profitability and predictive power of the method. In efficient markets, knowledge of the Elliott wave principle among investors would lead to the disappearance of the very patterns they tried to anticipate, rendering the method, and all forms of technical analysis, useless.其前提是市场中公认的展开模式违背了有效市场假说，它认为价格无法预测市场的数据，如移动平均线和音量。根据这一推理，如果成功的市场预测是可能的，投资者将购买（或出售）的方法时，预测价格上升（或减少） ，到如此地步，价格将上升（或下降）立即，从而破坏了盈利能力和预测能力该方法的。在高效率的市场，知识的艾略特波浪理论的投资者将导致失踪的非常模式他们试图预测，渲染的方法，以及各种形式的技术分析，毫无用处。
Benoit Mandelbrot has questioned whether Elliott waves can predict financial markets:"But Wave prediction is a very uncertain business. It is an art to which the subjective judgement of the chartists matters more than the objective, replicable verdict of the numbers. The record of this, as of most technical analysis, is at best mixed."
伯努瓦罗特了质疑艾略特波浪能预测金融市场：
“但波动预测是一个非常不确定的事儿。这是一种艺术（不是西方意义上的科学），主观判断比客观数字占的成分大。记录显示，像大多数技术分析一样，波动预测充其量是主观判断与客观数据的混合”
Critics also say the wave principle is too vague to be useful, since it cannot consistently identify when a wave begins or ends, and that Elliott wave forecasts are prone to subjective revision.批评者还称，波的原则是太含糊是有用的，因为它始终不能确定波开始或结束的时间，而且艾略特波浪预测很容易主观的修订。
家园 提醒：这种看法不正确 中小板指数从底部上来50%了，本周还创反弹新高，量却小了，这有可能是“量价背离”见顶的标志。这个看法和当初大盘开始下跌时“双底”的看法犯了同样的错误。
家园 拜陈大 拜陈大大。一直在关注中信和招行
家园 没事炒炒业绩 家园 政委：来我的QQ群49029772看原版研报！ 家园 中小板指数量价背离 意味着要向下调整？
