主题：原油期货下跌，造成美国史无前例的巨亏？ -- NTLS
家园 原油期货下跌，造成美国史无前例的巨亏？ 不知道应该相信什么，不相信什么，反正这个世界早已经充满了谎言和欺诈。
到底是谁整谁，咱看不清楚，反正下手的一般都是不漏声色的那个幕后受益人。
硝烟战争和货币战争都只有相同的结果：战争贩子受益，百姓受害，不论那边。
可是这打仗的事，谁也拦不住，想不掺合也不行啊。贪婪是人类的本性之一。
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不可不看：惊心动魄！中美金融大战的两个传奇版本！第一个版本!
美国原油期货的上涨，本质上就是为发展中国家定制的，特别是中国。它的使命就是搞乱国际经济秩序，使得国际经济的发展屈服于通胀。从而最终停止甚至衰退下来。在原油期货的带领下，矿产品、农产品纷纷跟进大幅上涨。最终让我们看到了这次实实在在的，席卷全球的大通胀。
不幸的是，这个疯狂上涨的油价，在08年6月6号138美元/每桶的价位上开始受到了反击。尽管这种反击在开始的时候并不占主流。但一开始原油期货的多头就注定要灭亡。从心理上说，原油期货的多头轻车熟路，按部就班的只是在做着曾经做过的老行当。从投入的资金规模到操作原则全是在没有天敌的前提下进行的。
对于阻止原油期货价格上涨的空方来说则不同。他们是在做一件史无前例的，足以让世界惊讶，且足以颠覆国际经济的，捅天的游戏。这件事从开始决策就足以让这群人始终处于恐惧当中！为了打胜这场战争，空方当然要做好一切准备。到2008年为止，这个准备工作应该至少持续了10年！世界经济星移斗转，终于在08年的6月6号出手了。这是一场惊心动魄的战争！足以让所有良心的人为空方捏把汗，寝食不安，夜不能寐......。空方终于在2008年7月15日开始，基本获胜！其实，这件事应该是没有悬念的。
美国原油期货的上涨被遏制，对与美国来说后果是非常严重的！用美国银行家自己的话说，这是被剪羊毛了。原油期货的做多力量来自美国众多的金融机构。一旦期货下跌，给美国银行体系造成的损失是没有史例可以参照的。
当油价在147.25美元高位被阻击下跌后。国际上出现了两波向美国聚集资本的过程。第一波应该是从08年6月12日开始至08年7月29日形成高峰，到08年8月15日基本结束。资金来自全世界每一个角落。这次资本大转移的前奏让全世界每一个新兴经济国家都感觉到'外资'的撤离，在中国、印度、越南、韩国、欧洲、加拿大、澳洲的资本源源不断的流向美国。这些资本来到美国当然是支持原油价格继续上涨。可惜不幸的是：原油期货在08年7月11日创造了147.25美元/每桶的天价后，于7月15日开始掉头向下。从此跌跌不休。为了挽救败局，世界上又出现了第二次的资本向美国靠拢的行动。要说第一次靠拢的资本来自世界的每一个角落的投资资本，那么这第二次靠拢的资金则主要来自欧洲银行体系日常运作的资金被抽调，企图挽回败局，支持美国原油期货的继续上涨。
出手打击美国原油期价的，虽然是国际炒家的新生力量。但手段更高一筹。在高位建满仓位后，第一波打击干脆利落。从而使其账面上聚集的资本大大增加。从根本上第一次削弱了多方的实力。这次双方的资本交换数量在数千亿美元数量级以上。当多方源源不断的从世界其他地方调用资本的时候，空方不急不躁。耐心的在111美元到120美元的范围内允许多方反扑。在多方在反扑的过程中继续开新仓，消耗了大量的资金。这一点对空方来说尤其重要！如果原油期价急匆匆地跌破100美元，而多方还保存足够的实力。其后果将会非常复杂。在空方的控制下，美原油期价在缓缓下跌的过程中，始终让多方感觉到，'只要再努力一下，就会出现转机'可惜，他们错了！这种缓缓下跌根本就是一个陷阱。它只会让多头的资金消耗殆尽。08年9月1日美国原油期货又开始了新的一轮下跌。尽管国际资本还在源源不断地向美国靠拢，尽管高盛还在有气无力的喊着'原油价格在年底将重见148美元'，尽管不断的还有资金开多仓企图反扑。这时候的局势已经发生了根本改变。美原油期价一层一层的，按部就班的下跌。使得多方的资金源源不断地流入空方的帐户。
这一次美国原油价格回归，对与美国，对于国际资本市场格局，对与未来的国际政治军事格局都将起到颠覆性的作用。美国是一个以金融为支撑的经济体系。当美国原油期货最终实现回归，美国的银行体系将出现史无前例的巨亏！一次巨大的，贯穿全美的中、大型银行的倒闭潮将随即发生！同时，因为这次挑高油价的行动还有欧洲、澳洲等发达地区银行的参与。一次席卷西方发达国家经济的大衰退即将展开。
在美国，因为银行体系的大衰退，从而导致美国机器所有的烧钱部门陷入困境，首当其冲的是军队。因为军队的大缩减，必然导致军火工业大衰退。一次巨大的失业潮随即发生。然后，扩散出去......。
因为美国银行体系的巨亏或者倒闭。必然导致得美国股市大跌。美国原油期货的获胜者为了回避美国的衰退，肯定要将资金调出美国本土，于是美元汇价必然暴跌。高悬在美国政府头上的那8万亿政府债务将被人们重新提起。从而触动针对美元的挤兑潮。
问题是！事情还不是这么简单！在美国的股市里已经聚集了大量的做空筹码。一旦这个雪崩基本形成。这股做空美股的力量将释放出来。最终将引导美国股市走上漫漫熊途。所有的这一切正在残酷的展开......。
与此相反的是，随着石油价格的回归，拖动矿产品价格的下跌，带动了农产品价格的回归。使得国际建设环境重新回到鸟语花香的时代。所有的发展中国家将受益，尤其是中国。中国的实体经济将在一个长期的，没有天敌的充满阳光雨露的环境里茁壮成长。尤其值得一提的是中国的股市。在那里，早已聚集了巨大的做多力量。它们将在一个和平、安静、没有外资干扰和掠夺的环境里畅快的释放其能量。
作者:lettbox01
第二个版本!
家园 七月的大屠殺，應是美方的作為 這是我看到的版本。屠殺對沖基金延續至今。
As of mid-July, Hank Paulson faced the following components of what was clearly Wall Street’s biggest crisis since 1929:
1. Gold was once again threatening to break through the psychologically important $1,000 mark, as US CPI was
soaring to 15-year peaks.
2. Oil was above $140 a barrel, corn was at $7.50, and soybeans were above $14. Cost passthroughs were being vigorously resisted, but food infl ation was threatening to outpace fuel inflation.
3. The dollar was threatening to break down anew, through the 70 level. Despite spreading recessions across the
Eurozone, the euro was threatening to break $1.60. European investment banks who had stuffed their systems with US subprime products had been protecting their balance sheet exposure to the sinking dollar by shorting the greenback, adding to the enormous pressure on the world’s currency standard.
4. The Bank Stock Index had plunged in six months from 90 to 50. All those bank equity deals with Sovereign Wealth Funds were under water at depths that once looked to be open only to submarines.
5. The Fed’s policy of swapping Treasurys for dubious CDOs valued according to the overlevered banks’ own discredited models was imperiled: at the rate of degradation, the world’s flagship Central Bank, whose promises are the sole backing for the nation’s currency, would soon have a balance sheet whose assets resembled those held by the worst and weakest of Wall Street’s discredited institutions. Already, the Fed was
trying heroically to cut back on the inflow of model-valued paper, and this meant trouble ahead for Lehman and other overstressed institutions.
6. The European Central Bank was experiencing a similar problem, because many banks, particularly Spanish and German mortgage lenders, were swapping their illiquid assets for loans—in euros and dollars. Ben Bernanke was probably getting worried calls from Jean-Claude Trichet.
7. The Wall Street Journal and other leading publications were demanding that the Fed stop the rush to infl ation by raising rates. In particular, The Journal insisted that soaring prices for gold and oil were driven by the descent of the dollar.
8. Fannie and Freddie (F&F) were on the edge of collapse, with hundreds of billions’ worth of their paper held by government funds abroad, including $100 billion by Russia. If they went down, the housing bear market would become a collapse of potentially Depression proportions. There were anxious calls from treasurers abroad about the reliability of the unspoken promise of the Treasury to back F&F obligations. Barney Frank, the House kingpin on the F&F relationship, kept saying that they were fi nancially sound and there was no government guarantee—nor would it ever be needed.
What to do?
Answer: take the pressure off the heavily-levered banks by putting pressure on the heavily-levered speculators and hedge funds that were short the banks and the dollar, and long the commodities.
With help from the SEC and the Commodity Futures Trading Corporation, Paulson and Bernanke sprang the trap.
They knew that, in recent weeks, there had been a big boost in “Long” speculative commodity contracts that had helped fuel the most recent runup in gold, grains and oil. This was a large deviation from the six-year pattern in the commodity bull market in which professionals and industrial participants had generally been the dominant forces in commodity pricing, as evidenced by the general pattern of backwardation, as opposed to a 1970s-style proliferation of contangos. (Backwardation means that the heavy participation of front-month players
willing to take delivery dominates price movements. Contangos, could, as in the 1970s, show that bettors on future inflation are in charge.) They also knew that many big hedge funds had prospered mightily from the most popular trade—shorting the banks and going long the commodities and commodity stocks.
When should the trap be sprung to inflict the most pain on levered bettors against financials, the dollar and levered longs on oil, gold, and grains? Answer: Ideally, when Asian markets are opening on the weekend, before real liquidity returns to both the commodity futures market and, in particular, the US bank stocks. That would force panic short-covering overnight as markets opened sequentially, and the hedge funds would be in desperate
positions when the Big Board opened to try to cover their shorts and unwind their longs.
Chris Cox of the SEC would add the icing to the cake: on Monday, he announced new, albeit temporary, rules against shortselling of F&F and leading fi nancials. So, as the panicking hedge funds tried to cover their shorts, they would not face any offerings from other speculators as the beaten-down bank stock share prices were soaring…
The Sunday night announcement was timed for the opening of Asian markets. The supply of leading US fi nancial stocks in Asian markets was thin, so they leapt dramatically. When Europe opened, that rally continued, so that by the time New York opened the stocks were up big, commodities were down big, and the SEC anouncement let hedge funds know that Washington was pulling out all the stops.
Paulson knew:
that the ultimate goal was to permit the banks to raise new equity, and that meant their share prices had to rise a long way; and
that this would force a panic short-covering of dollar positions, setting off a mutually-reinforcing pattern of collapsing commodities, soaring financial stocks, and a rising dollar; and
that a decisive break in gold, grains and oil futures, accompanied by the biggest dollar rally in years, would blow the inflation dragons away—at least for a while; and
therefore, the Fed would no longer be under daily pressure to
raise rates.
The genius in this strategy was that it relied on the excess leverage among hedge funds to take the pressure off the overlevered banks, which held huge exposure to F&F paper, guarantees, and preferred shares.
It worked…
家园 没看懂的地方…… 小弟没啥水平，望方家排疑解惑，多谢多谢了！
4. The Bank Stock Index had plunged in six months from 90 to 50. All those bank equity deals with Sovereign Wealth Funds were under water at depths that once looked to be open only to submarines.请问哪里可以找到Bank Stock Index的数据？还有那后半句话是啥意思？说明比之前跌得厉害？
第五段彻底没看懂，先不管了，第六段说欧洲央行也面临同样问题，因为欧洲银行纷纷把不动产换成贷款（这是咋换的？）。那我的理解是货币纷纷流入欧洲……于是造成通货膨胀？感觉也不对呀。
[quote]Backwardation means that the heavy participation of front-month players willing to take delivery dominates price movements. Contangos, could, as in the 1970s, show that bettors on future inflation are in charge.[/quote
这里的意思？后者赌通货膨胀带动期货价格升，前者？
家园 看完了但是还是不太懂 说是对冲基金看空美元，看多期货市场，然后保尔森怎么搞了一下让银行股在全球市场都大涨，期货都大跌，同时禁止做空某些股票，于是对冲基金只好平仓？谁来解释一下……
家园 猜测一下下面的故事 四姐妹还是某背后真正控制美国及世界的家族，在这场多空之争中惨败给了中俄，于是他们操纵其代理人小树丛及美国国会通过了8500亿救市计划，操纵欧洲诸国通过20000亿救市计划。。。
家园 猜测其作者想说的是第一个版本，另一个是陪衬而已 从行文的内容、叙述思路上看，第一版的比较完整，不似第二版的勉强堆砌。
家园 哈哈，是啊，都是一个思路.... 太单一太单一，都是以从前有一个恶魔开始...最后以中国从此生活在鸟语花香的...结束。
家园 看到这一段我就觉得浓浓的意淫架空小说味道出来了 对于阻止原油期货价格上涨的空方来说则不同。他们是在做一件史无前例的，足以让世界惊讶，且足以颠覆国际经济的，捅天的游戏。这件事从开始决策就足以让这群人始终处于恐惧当中！为了打胜这场战争，空方当然要做好一切准备。到2008年为止，这个准备工作应该至少持续了10年！世界经济星移斗转，终于在08年的6月6号出手了。这是一场惊心动魄的战争！足以让所有良心的人为空方捏把汗，寝食不安，夜不能寐......。这年头这种意淫架空小说多极了，基本架构就是世界危机，欧美全完蛋，就中国笑到最后，看一部两部还有点滋味增强点民族自豪感，看多了就觉得故事情节编的太单一了
家园 部分真实 第二个版本没看到。第一个版本前半部分的描述基本真实，我认识的一个朋友参加了这场会战。当然他不是主力，能驱策的只有10亿美元，在145美元开始放空。至于最终结局，尚未到来。
- 复 部分真实
家园 古巴又有消息 不知道挑这个战况激烈的时候放出来是什么用意……
- 复 部分真实
家园 又看到一个 真实扑朔迷离啊……
《第一财经日报》：你刚才谈到，高盛是炒作石油价格的最大推手。恩道尔：布什政府及其身后的石油集团的一个重要盟友就是高盛。你知道，保尔森的老东家就是高盛。高盛是油价的最大操盘手。
《第一财经日报》：有什么迹象证明这一点？
恩道尔：数不胜数。高盛在2006年利用基金做空石油就是一个例子。就拿最近的油价拐点来说，在7月11日前公布的报告中，高盛令人惊奇地预测，中国对石油的需求将失控性的增长，使得价格突破200美元。那时，我就怀疑，这是圈内人做空石油的信号；而做空的前奏就是吸引“最后一棒”接手原油仓位。
不幸的是，很多石油消费国，包括中国，就真的成为这“最后一棒”。他们在130、140美元的价位上大量接手。一位深知华尔街内幕并了解中国情况的华人分析师和我持同样的观点。
我认为，中国和中国的石油大公司应该从中吸取教训。下次再作此类决定的时候应该更多想一想。
家园 这个世界上什么民间XX家都不缺 民间科学家，民间经济学家，民间战略家，民间预言家，民间XX家
这种东西就当故事看看吧，娱乐一下也好